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Posted on 10/9/14 at 1:19 pm to Duke
quote:
Since your my weather bro, will that translate into better snow chances in SE Louisiana? I want some god damn snow.
I am seeing a 09-10 type winter when us in East Texas got pounded with 4 or 5 snows; if I remember correctly Louisiana got some also along with many other areas.
Posted on 10/9/14 at 1:21 pm to aggiegeog
We got a little bit of snow but mostly rain. We did get a couple of bitter cold snaps though. Lows in the 10s here in the river parishes. Gotcha.
Posted on 10/9/14 at 1:27 pm to Wishnitwas1998
quote:
I knew you did Dozens I tell you!
I have weather apps that let me know when it's going to rain, wind, snow or whatever. If I don't know what's going to happen weather wise, I feel incomplete. I'm not saying it's an OCD but it's an OCD.
Posted on 10/9/14 at 1:30 pm to prostyleoffensetime
quote:
I farm so I constantly keep up with it. People who get their weather info from local news people piss me off. Those guys don't know shite. Take NOAA and Accuweather forecasts and make your own assumptions using common sense and you'll be very close more often than not.
I like the NWS for days 1-3 or so, for days 3-8 or so I like to use a combination of models (mainly the EURO and GFS ensembles), beyond that I like to look at the teleconnections (EPO, AO, NAO, PNA, recurving typhoons and even sunspot activity) and for long term winter forecasts you can look at the growth at the Siberian snow-pack along with the teleconnections during October and often that will be the general theme of the winter.
I would like to add that I too loathe most local guys. I do follow Aaron Tuttle (covers OKC and DFW weather mainly), Steve McCauley (covers DFW) and James Spann (mainly because the first one to effectively utilize social media to share weather info and is still great at it).
This post was edited on 10/9/14 at 1:41 pm
Posted on 10/9/14 at 1:59 pm to aggiegeog
Yeah see I have no idea what you are talking about in that first paragraph
Posted on 10/9/14 at 2:19 pm to Wishnitwas1998
Yea that is pretty high level, but it was all picked up from following weather forums. I pride myself on putting out a more accurate long range forecast for my location than local guys and even NWS. I keep track of my forecasts vs what actual reports end up showing. I am thinking about starting to track the mine vs the NWS forecast also so I can statistically back up my claims (I won't bother with comparing to local guys because we all know they are crazy.)
Posted on 10/9/14 at 2:34 pm to aggiegeog
I've always thought the guys at channel 5 locally in Memphis were ok at forecasting but often times I feel they must rely on models or something too much bc for instance they will call for rain in this afternoon or tomorrow afternoon and it'll be this morning and I'll be look at some limited info (radar, front models, temps, dew point, etc) and say their full of shite ain't gonna happen and most of the time it doesn't
I know to beat them on a 6-26 hour forecast isn't that impressive but it's something
I know to beat them on a 6-26 hour forecast isn't that impressive but it's something
Posted on 10/9/14 at 2:46 pm to Wishnitwas1998
That's where it starts for the weather nerd.
Posted on 10/9/14 at 2:57 pm to Wishnitwas1998
Many forecasters and even hobbyist model hug too much. Upstream forecasting and knowledge past events are still critical skills. For instance last year featured many events where the cold air was dammed up on the Ouachita Mountains which slowed the cold from reaching areas near the Sabin River while it smoothly pushed through into DFW and Central LA.
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