Stat Model - #1 Bama vs #3 OSU (Title) (7 PM CST) (Jan 11)

Just to start, here are the historical model picks and actual results from 2020 to date







To date:
- Alabama has only underperformed the model in terms of Point Margin 2 times - with one of them being the LSU game in which we stopped trying to score roughly 5 minutes into the 3rd quarter. The other, of course, being Florida.

- Alabama's offense has been basically right on track with the modeling. The best game was Auburn, the "worst" game was Arkansas, but that makes sense in hindsight given the way they defended us compared to other teams (Tennessee too, but that was early with limited data).

- Alabama's defense............pretty much outperformed the expectations all year except for the Florida game. A posi-bammer says that's because Florida made plays and got some extra chances to do so. The nega-bammer says well yea, all those other offenses sucks so who cares. I say it's somewhere in the middle.

- So, in totality, the model has underestimated Alabama slightly.



In addition, totals on the season

Against the Spread: 11-13 (46%) (AU/TN prediction = line)
Against the Total: 13-12 (52%)
Total: 24-25 (49%)