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SOG Predictor - #5 Georgia (4-1) vs #8 Florida (3-1)
Posted on 11/2/20 at 1:07 pm
Posted on 11/2/20 at 1:07 pm
#5 Georgia (4-1) (-3.5) vs #8 Florida (3-1) (O/U 52.5)
Vegas Expectation: Georgia 28-24
GEORGIA - 29
FLORIDA - 21
GEORGIA OFFENSE
- 370 yards on 74 plays (5.04 YPP)
- 216 pass yards on 31 passes (6.92 YPA)
- 154 rush yards on 42 rushes (3.65 YPA)
FLORIDA OFFENSE
- 351 yards on 75 plays (4.68 YPP)
- 273 pass yards on 37 passes (7.38 YPA)
- 78 rush yards on 29 rushes (2.69 YPA)
So far this season......
GEORGIA OFFENSE
- Georgia is averaging 105% of their opponents pass yards per attempt allowed (7.31 vs 6.93)
- Georgia is averaging 108% of their opponents rush yards per attempt allowed (4.17 vs 3.85)
GEORGIA DEFENSE
- Georgia is allowing 77% of their opponents pass yards per attempt (6.38 vs 8.31)
- Georgia is allowing 57% of their opponents rush yards per attempt (2.52 vs 4.46)
FLORIDA OFFENSE
- Florida is averaging 117% of their opponents pass yards per attempt allowed (9.65 vs 8.28)
- Florida is averaging 108% of their opponents rush yards per attempt allowed (4.78 vs 4.41)
FLORIDA DEFENSE
- Florida is allowing 84% of their opponents pass yards per attempt (7.27 vs 8.61)
- Florida is allowing 78% of their opponents rush yards per attempt (3.75 vs 4.83)
- Georgia has played MUCH better defenses than Florida has.
- Florida has played slightly better offenses (on the whole) than Georgia has.
- Georgia's offense is slightly above average. Georgia's defense is elite.
- Florida offense is above average - but they've played 3 bad defenses and 1 average at best defense who have given up similar numbers to other teams (Ole Miss, A&M, Missouri, South Carolina). Florida's defense is slightly above average (kind of a shock to me, but they have held teams under they season averages).
Vegas Expectation: Georgia 28-24
GEORGIA - 29
FLORIDA - 21
GEORGIA OFFENSE
- 370 yards on 74 plays (5.04 YPP)
- 216 pass yards on 31 passes (6.92 YPA)
- 154 rush yards on 42 rushes (3.65 YPA)
FLORIDA OFFENSE
- 351 yards on 75 plays (4.68 YPP)
- 273 pass yards on 37 passes (7.38 YPA)
- 78 rush yards on 29 rushes (2.69 YPA)
So far this season......
GEORGIA OFFENSE
- Georgia is averaging 105% of their opponents pass yards per attempt allowed (7.31 vs 6.93)
- Georgia is averaging 108% of their opponents rush yards per attempt allowed (4.17 vs 3.85)
GEORGIA DEFENSE
- Georgia is allowing 77% of their opponents pass yards per attempt (6.38 vs 8.31)
- Georgia is allowing 57% of their opponents rush yards per attempt (2.52 vs 4.46)
FLORIDA OFFENSE
- Florida is averaging 117% of their opponents pass yards per attempt allowed (9.65 vs 8.28)
- Florida is averaging 108% of their opponents rush yards per attempt allowed (4.78 vs 4.41)
FLORIDA DEFENSE
- Florida is allowing 84% of their opponents pass yards per attempt (7.27 vs 8.61)
- Florida is allowing 78% of their opponents rush yards per attempt (3.75 vs 4.83)
- Georgia has played MUCH better defenses than Florida has.
- Florida has played slightly better offenses (on the whole) than Georgia has.
- Georgia's offense is slightly above average. Georgia's defense is elite.
- Florida offense is above average - but they've played 3 bad defenses and 1 average at best defense who have given up similar numbers to other teams (Ole Miss, A&M, Missouri, South Carolina). Florida's defense is slightly above average (kind of a shock to me, but they have held teams under they season averages).
This post was edited on 11/7/20 at 3:42 pm
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Posted on 11/2/20 at 1:16 pm to SummerOfGeorge
I'm just not sold on Bennett XVII. I think if UGA gets into a game where they have to put up some points, he gets exposed. This is a game where I can see that happening.
Posted on 11/2/20 at 1:19 pm to FairhopeTider
quote:
I think if UGA gets into a game where they have to put up some points, he gets exposed.
Wasn't he already exposed when we played UGA?
Posted on 11/2/20 at 1:22 pm to FairhopeTider
quote:
I'm just not sold on Bennett XVII
Oh, I'm sold on him - sold on the fact that he's not very good. I think that's pretty much clear at this point. Circumstances have to be perfect for him to play well - ahead of the chains, clear pocket, open receivers, etc. If any of those break down he has little shot.
Florida gave up 170 yards (3.8 YPA) and 205 yards (5.4 YPA) on the ground to Ole Miss and A&M. Georgia's run game will look a whole lot like A&M's did, and A&M blew Florida off the ball for most of the game. Kirby will have no issues playing like he did in Lexington or against Auburn and keeping Florida off the field while wearing down their defense and making everyone one of Florida's offensive possessions a must score.
This is the type of game where if Florida lets Georgia stayed ahead of the chain then Bennett can be efficient enough to win, IMHO.
This post was edited on 11/2/20 at 1:23 pm
Posted on 11/2/20 at 1:27 pm to SummerOfGeorge
The relative health of UGA's defense is going to play a big part in the outcome. Even a half step back on defense gives them zero room for error with their offense.
Posted on 11/2/20 at 1:31 pm to Sl0thstronautEsq
quote:
Wasn't he already exposed when we played UGA?
He absolutely was. Once our offense started scoring is when he started to feel the pressure and he started making mistakes.
Posted on 11/2/20 at 1:34 pm to Robot Santa
quote:
The relative health of UGA's defense is going to play a big part in the outcome. Even a half step back on defense gives them zero room for error with their offense.
Absolutely - especially upfront. If Florida's average run game can get traction and Mullen can start doing play-action stuff and moving Toney all around with UGA having to use LBs against the run........that's big-time trouble.
And then that directly feeds into Bennett needing to score and making mistakes.
Really interesting game.
Posted on 11/2/20 at 1:46 pm to SummerOfGeorge
LeCounte being out is probably going to make defending Pitts even more difficult than it was already going to be as well.
Posted on 11/2/20 at 1:54 pm to Robot Santa
quote:
LeCounte being out is probably going to make defending Pitts even more difficult than it was already going to be as well.
Saw where Jordan Davis is definitely out, too.
Posted on 11/2/20 at 2:26 pm to SummerOfGeorge
UGA giving up 57% of rush average is an incredible number.
Wonder how they look with the injuries, but that is ultra elite.
Wonder how they look with the injuries, but that is ultra elite.
Posted on 11/2/20 at 3:05 pm to SummerOfGeorge
UGA has too many key contributors out imo. Makes me lean UF
Posted on 11/2/20 at 3:21 pm to Kcstills17
If Mullen's is the QB whisperer, then Kirby is just plain tone death. He has dawgs fans questioning his sanity at this point.
The Gators need to open it up and keep their offensive foot on the gas.
The Gators need to open it up and keep their offensive foot on the gas.
Posted on 11/2/20 at 3:34 pm to bamameister
The problem I've always seen with Mullen in big games is he always comes out slinging the ball early and NEVER tries to establish the running game first or even gives it equal balance. He throws, throws, throws until late in the first half when he has often already fallen behind and is chasing the opponent. Then he decides to mix in the run more liberally but it's really too late. His big game offense is imbalanced in favor of the passing game and it usually gets him in trouble.
Posted on 11/2/20 at 3:36 pm to phil4bama
Agreed - this feels like a game Florida can definitely win, but I have real problems trusting Mullen in a big game.
Posted on 11/2/20 at 3:36 pm to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
SOG Predictor - #5 Georgia (4-1) vs #8 Florida (3-1)
Posted on 11/2/20 at 3:37 pm to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
SummerOfGeorge
You want to do one for Clemson-Notre Dame?
Posted on 11/2/20 at 3:39 pm to TideSaint
quote:
You want to do one for Clemson-Notre Dame?
Problem is I have a big manicured spreadsheet of each SEC game played to date that I can mix and match to get all the stats.
Don't have it for any other league.
Posted on 11/2/20 at 3:40 pm to SummerOfGeorge
Oh well.
Lawrence being out would probably make it irrelevant anyway.
I'm satisfied with just this.
Lawrence being out would probably make it irrelevant anyway.
I'm satisfied with just this.
Posted on 11/2/20 at 3:41 pm to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
I have a big manicured spreadsheet of each SEC game played to date that I can mix and match to get all the stats.
Don't have it for any other league.
I'm not sure it would matter anyway ... with Lawrence out, Clemson's offensive stats would all have big ol' question marks beside them.
Posted on 11/2/20 at 3:43 pm to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
Saw where Jordan Davis is definitely out, too.
They just lost Julian Rochester for the season as well.
They are getting a small taste of our last few years.
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