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Covid-19 in Georgia: The Second Wave
Posted on 7/16/20 at 11:31 am
Posted on 7/16/20 at 11:31 am
New thread.
Fact- Over the last two weeks, the daily new hospitalizations (7-day moving average) has doubled.
Fact- Over the last two weeks, an average of 13% of all tests have been positive. That's almost double June's average of 6.5%. Yes, record test numbers are being done, but it's the rate of positives that has also doubled, not just the raw results.
Fact- The highest rates of recent spread are not anywhere near Atlanta where the riots were.
Fact- UGA virus expert calls it "second strain" this morning. This should get interesting. WSB TV Link
Fact- Georgia never fully reopened and never got back to normal, most offices never reopened, most restaurants never fully reopened, most schools/daycares never fully reopened, many people never stopped wearing masks, people still washing and sanitizing their hands 3x more than they used to, most people continuing social distancing, no big crowded events have transpired (outside of riots), yet... here we are.
Discuss among yourselves.
Fact- Over the last two weeks, the daily new hospitalizations (7-day moving average) has doubled.
Fact- Over the last two weeks, an average of 13% of all tests have been positive. That's almost double June's average of 6.5%. Yes, record test numbers are being done, but it's the rate of positives that has also doubled, not just the raw results.
Fact- The highest rates of recent spread are not anywhere near Atlanta where the riots were.
Fact- UGA virus expert calls it "second strain" this morning. This should get interesting. WSB TV Link
Fact- Georgia never fully reopened and never got back to normal, most offices never reopened, most restaurants never fully reopened, most schools/daycares never fully reopened, many people never stopped wearing masks, people still washing and sanitizing their hands 3x more than they used to, most people continuing social distancing, no big crowded events have transpired (outside of riots), yet... here we are.
Discuss among yourselves.
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Posted on 7/16/20 at 11:32 am to deeprig9
"you ain't containing shite"
Posted on 7/16/20 at 11:37 am to deeprig9
Ok now show the death rate.
Posted on 7/16/20 at 11:47 am to RunLindsayRun
For strain #2, is it fair to say we don't know? You should click the WSB link above. That guys says it seems lower than strain 1.
Speaking of strains, I am calling this strain 2 because that's what the UGA guy said. But I am convinced it is actually strain 3.
Speaking of strains, I am calling this strain 2 because that's what the UGA guy said. But I am convinced it is actually strain 3.
Posted on 7/16/20 at 11:55 am to deeprig9
The crazy shite being said about this virus reminds me of the virus in the walking dead.
If you get the virus you become a zombie.
You get the virus from being bit by a zombie.
Oh no wait, we all have the virus in us and when we die of any cause it makes us all turn into zombies. But still if you get bitten by a zombie you get a different strain of the virus and then you die from that and become a zombie.
If you get the virus you become a zombie.
You get the virus from being bit by a zombie.
Oh no wait, we all have the virus in us and when we die of any cause it makes us all turn into zombies. But still if you get bitten by a zombie you get a different strain of the virus and then you die from that and become a zombie.
This post was edited on 7/16/20 at 11:56 am
Posted on 7/16/20 at 12:12 pm to deeprig9
Here is the problem with your positive numbers...
A lot of people who test positive are going back each day until they test negative.
I.E. My business partner had it and for 10 days straight he went to get tested. That is 10 positives to 1 negative being calculated.
They are not distinguishing that 1 person took it 10 times and had 10 positives. In his case that is 10 positives.
I can confirm this because my firm is managing the data warehouse that this info flows into.
A lot of people who test positive are going back each day until they test negative.
I.E. My business partner had it and for 10 days straight he went to get tested. That is 10 positives to 1 negative being calculated.
They are not distinguishing that 1 person took it 10 times and had 10 positives. In his case that is 10 positives.
I can confirm this because my firm is managing the data warehouse that this info flows into.
This post was edited on 7/16/20 at 12:13 pm
Posted on 7/16/20 at 12:21 pm to Dawg4Life47
Didn’t know this. Interesting
Posted on 7/16/20 at 12:52 pm to deeprig9
quote:
Fact- Georgia never fully reopened and never got back to normal, most offices never reopened, most restaurants never fully reopened, most schools/daycares never fully reopened, many people never stopped wearing masks, people still washing and sanitizing their hands 3x more than they used to, most people continuing social distancing, no big crowded events have transpired (outside of riots), yet... here we are.
Who did this study? Restaurants, grocery stores and other places i've been to show hardly anyone wearing masks. Gyms, under 10% of people there wear masks. How do they know the number of people "washing and sanitizing their hands 3x more than they used to"?
I'm going to call it how I see it. Very few people are wearing masks and social distancing in Metro Atlanta.
Posted on 7/16/20 at 1:16 pm to deeprig9
In Albany many young people chose to go without masks after it seemed that the worst was over. For a while most men in their teens and twenties were neither distancing nor wearing masks. Now everyone in grocery stores or Walmart is wearing a mask.
Lots of men in Home Depot and Lowes still go without masks.
Lots of men in Home Depot and Lowes still go without masks.
Posted on 7/16/20 at 1:26 pm to deeprig9
It was never just going to go away. A large percentage of the US will get it, that is not new information and is it really a record when we know it is spreading daily...
We should have never shut down but for a week or two for the medical community to catch up and prepare. Otherwise, protect the most vulnerable and move on.
We should have never shut down but for a week or two for the medical community to catch up and prepare. Otherwise, protect the most vulnerable and move on.
Posted on 7/16/20 at 1:27 pm to Dawg4Life47
The hospitalization curve is telling the Georgia story. Deaths are now trending up. At least we aren't Florida.
Posted on 7/16/20 at 1:31 pm to Whiznot
Don't know that I would put much stock in your numbers.
We just got a call from someone who scheduled their Covid test, waited for 2 hours in line, he said F it I am leaving, two weeks later got his "positive" Covid results in the mail with his name on them. He never even took the actual test.
This is turning into a support nightmare due to falsifying info in the medical system. It's getting ugly
I am looking at the actual database information and your charts are way off for GA.
We just got a call from someone who scheduled their Covid test, waited for 2 hours in line, he said F it I am leaving, two weeks later got his "positive" Covid results in the mail with his name on them. He never even took the actual test.
This is turning into a support nightmare due to falsifying info in the medical system. It's getting ugly
I am looking at the actual database information and your charts are way off for GA.
This post was edited on 7/16/20 at 1:33 pm
Posted on 7/16/20 at 1:34 pm to Dawg4Life47
quote:
I.E. My business partner had it and for 10 days straight he went to get tested. That is 10 positives to 1 negative being calculated.
Your partner's positive test will only appear as 1 result in the daily test record for any given day. They aren't adding in all the previous days that he tested positive.
Posted on 7/16/20 at 1:35 pm to Whiznot
Do you realize that is 21 deaths in GA in one day with the avg. age of 79.9 and climbing ?
We have a population of 10mm people, that is nothing to write home about.
Also, positive tests are going to go up until everyone in the world gets this over the next 3 years.
Don't care about morbidity only care about mortality rates.
We have a population of 10mm people, that is nothing to write home about.
Also, positive tests are going to go up until everyone in the world gets this over the next 3 years.
Don't care about morbidity only care about mortality rates.
This post was edited on 7/16/20 at 1:36 pm
Posted on 7/16/20 at 1:36 pm to Whiznot
Each day he is included in the daily numbers.
I am looking at the database right this minute.
10 positives, 1 person.
That makes it look like 10 new people over a 10 day period. You don't think that skews the numbers? If not, then you aren't worth arguing with.
I am looking at the database right this minute.
10 positives, 1 person.
That makes it look like 10 new people over a 10 day period. You don't think that skews the numbers? If not, then you aren't worth arguing with.
This post was edited on 7/16/20 at 1:38 pm
Posted on 7/16/20 at 1:38 pm to Dawg4Life47
Please post a link to what you are seeing. Maybe we can reconcile the two.
These data represent confirmed cases of COVID-19 reported to the Georgia Department of Public Health (DPH) as of 7/15/2020, 2:50:06 PM.
The primary data source is linked above. The secondary data source, Johns Hopkins, is linked below. Johns Hopkins' Georgia data is also sourced from DPH.
State of Georgia ESF 8 Public Health Dashboard
Quote from the COVID Tracker Project.
These data represent confirmed cases of COVID-19 reported to the Georgia Department of Public Health (DPH) as of 7/15/2020, 2:50:06 PM.
The primary data source is linked above. The secondary data source, Johns Hopkins, is linked below. Johns Hopkins' Georgia data is also sourced from DPH.
State of Georgia ESF 8 Public Health Dashboard
Quote from the COVID Tracker Project.
quote:
Positive includes deaths. Positives occasionally update before totals. We use the state's "as of" time as our Update Time. As of May 16, Georgia is reporting specimens tested. Because some people may be tested more than once, this number is probably higher than the number of people tested. As of May 27, GA started separating serology tests from PCR. Total test numbers were impacted by around 74,000. GA makes changes to its cumulative case counts for previous dates, so its historical time series and trends for case counts might not match ours. When we can, we will update our own historical time series to match theirs.
This post was edited on 7/16/20 at 1:54 pm
Posted on 7/16/20 at 1:59 pm to Dawg4Life47
quote:
That makes it look like 10 new people over a 10 day period. You don't think that skews the numbers? If not, then you aren't worth arguing with.
Apples and oranges. That data is daily tests. Your thinking is wrong. It has nothing to do with people. It isn't a cumulative chart. There is no data tabulation that adds all of those daily test records to get some erroneous total.
This post was edited on 7/16/20 at 2:02 pm
Posted on 7/16/20 at 2:02 pm to Whiznot
He is just saying that they are including someone who already tested positive another 9 times over 9 days because of the daily test.
That times a couple hundred or more people being tested daily can sku the heck out of stats
That times a couple hundred or more people being tested daily can sku the heck out of stats
Posted on 7/16/20 at 2:04 pm to Whiznot
quote:
Apples and oranges. That data is daily tests. Your thinking is wrong. It has nothing to do with people. It isn't a cumulative chart. There is no data tabulation that adds all of those daily test records to get some erroneous total.
He makes a good point about media pronouncement for daily positives and percentage positive. Half truths.
But as you showed, those numbers are not affecting the cumulative cases.
Posted on 7/16/20 at 2:13 pm to Dawg4Life47
quote:
Here is the problem with your positive numbers...
A lot of people who test positive are going back each day until they test negative.
Was this also happening in April, May, and June? If so, the rate being doubled now vs then is still highly relevant to the discussion. However, if it's just now that this phenomenon of multi testing the same individual is happening, then you'd have a point.
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