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One weakness that could sink each national title contender this year
Posted on 8/22/19 at 10:58 am
Posted on 8/22/19 at 10:58 am
I left out Michigan & Notre Dame from this excerpt from Saturday Down South...
ALABAMA: The Back-loaded Schedule
There’s a strong chance that Alabama sees just 1 Top 25 opponent in the first 2 months of the season. That means blowouts galore for a program that hasn’t lost to a non-top 15 team since 2010. My concern is that Alabama runs into the same issue that it did last year. That is, it plays in too many blowouts and gets away with mistakes that won’t work against elite teams.
If Alabama does run the table again in the regular season, that’d be my big concern heading into the SEC Championship and potentially the Playoff. Nick Saban can lose his mind in a 45-3 game all he wants, but until you have to go toe-to-toe with an elite team for 60 minutes, it’s hard to get that message across.
CLEMSON: The new-look defensive line
I know Xavier Thomas is all the rage. The former 5-star recruit is all over preseason All-America teams and is considered the next great Clemson defensive lineman. But the Tigers had such an incredible advantage with having Dexter Lawrence, Clelin Ferrell, Christian Wilkins and Austin Bryant all back for last year’s squad. That group was huge in that second half shutout of Alabama (well, except for Lawrence, he was suspended), and really they were huge all year.
Besides Thomas, can Clemson get that kind of all-world push up front? I mean, it’s Brent Venables so he’ll find ways to pressure the quarterback, but Clemson led the country with 54 sacks last season. To assume they’ll have that kind of success this year would be a big leap. That could hurt if they were to meet a team like Georgia in the national championship.
FLORIDA: The offensive line
Last year, it was all about how the Gators were so experienced on the offensive line and how that was going to fuel the turnaround. This year, that could be the thing that holds them back from being elite. Replacing 4 of 5 starters up front won’t be easy, especially in a division that has nothing but defensive minds (Kirby Smart, Mark Stoops, Barry Odom, Will Muschamp, Jeremy Pruitt and Derek Mason).
The great teams impose their will at the line of scrimmage. Will Florida be able to do that? I don’t know, but I do know getting that push up front for a run-heavy offense will be crucial in Dan Mullen’s offense.
GEORGIA: The receivers
I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again. Never has a team made the Playoff when replacing the top 5 receivers from the previous season. Georgia is trying to become the first. That stat was noteworthy following the dismissal of Jeremiah Holloman, who was expected to be Jake Fromm’s go-to target after the Dawgs lost Riley Ridley, Mecole Hardman, Terry Godwin and tight end Isaac Nauta to the NFL Draft.
As every Georgia fan will tell you, there’s still talent in that group. Five-star talent to be specific. Former Cal transfer Demetris Robertson has a major step to make and true freshman George Pickens has been getting rave reviews in camp. But yeah, the numbers are rough:
Running back D’Andre Swift has most receiving yards of any returning player
No returning wide receiver had more than 9 catches for UGA in 2018
No returning WR averaged more than 10 yards per game in 2018
2 returning WRs who caught a pass in 2018
Of total receiving yards (3,177) in 2018 UGA returns 24% of that production
Of total receiving touchdowns (34) in 2018, UGA returns 18% of that production
The good news? Fromm has as much big-game experience as anyone in college football.
LSU: Alabama … and the offensive line
It’s too easy to just say Alabama, though if LSU goes 11-1 with that Texas win, it could have a super interesting Playoff case. Instead of just saying that losing to the Crimson Tide again will be the thing that holds the Tigers back, let’s look at a place where they return a lot of experience — the offensive line.
Garrett Brumfield is the group’s lone departure. Seven offensive linemen who started games, including first-team All-SEC center Lloyd Cushenberry, are back. That’s the good. What’s the bad?
Joe Burrow took more sacks than anyone in the SEC last year — he was pressured on 27.5% of dropbacks — and the run blocking wasn’t much better. Part of that was because of injuries, LSU started a different offensive line combination each of the first 6 games. If that doesn’t change with this returning group, the Tigers will stub their toe multiple times in the regular season.
OHIO STATE: A first-time head coach
Has there ever been a program with a first-time head coach and a first-time starting quarterback who got preseason top 5 love? I can’t think of one. We’ve seen first-time starters thrive at quarterback, no doubt, and we’ve even seen first-time coaches like Lincoln Riley have incredible Year 1 success. That’s exactly what Ohio State hopes Ryan Day is in the post-Urban Meyer era.
There’s no guarantee that happens. There’s also no guarantee that he handles the offense as well now that he has head coaching duties on his plate. Now he’s got to handle media, egos in the locker room and everything in between. That’s on top of the pressure he has of maximizing the rare abilities of Justin Fields.
Just seems like a tall ask for Day to win it all in Year 1.
OKLAHOMA: The “defense”
Speaking of Riley, his teams made Playoff appearances the past 2 years in spite of Oklahoma’s awful defenses. And upon arrival, they lost close games to SEC powers because of their awful defenses. Will that be any different in 2019?
Fortunately for Riley, he’s got a new defensive coordinator (Alex Grinch) who will take over a unit that returns 81% of its defensive production from a year ago. Can Kenneth Murray lead a unit that’s at least average? That’s an interesting question. It figures to be a different feeling for Jalen Hurts after the top-flight defenses he played with at Alabama.
TEXAS: The overall inexperience
Lost in the shuffle of everyone claiming “Texas is back” is the fact that the Longhorns rank dead last among Power 5 teams in percentage of returning production. Dead last. Most of those defensive players who led the effort against Georgia in the Sugar Bowl are gone. This is truly Sam Ehlinger’s team.
And sure, Tom Herman recruited extremely well the past couple of years. There’s no doubt that program is stockpiled with talent. But can a group so inexperienced really take that next step to a title? To do that, Texas would have to beat both LSU and Oklahoma, not to mention avoiding slip-ups to teams like Oklahoma State.
But hey, at least Maryland isn’t on the schedule this year.
ALABAMA: The Back-loaded Schedule
There’s a strong chance that Alabama sees just 1 Top 25 opponent in the first 2 months of the season. That means blowouts galore for a program that hasn’t lost to a non-top 15 team since 2010. My concern is that Alabama runs into the same issue that it did last year. That is, it plays in too many blowouts and gets away with mistakes that won’t work against elite teams.
If Alabama does run the table again in the regular season, that’d be my big concern heading into the SEC Championship and potentially the Playoff. Nick Saban can lose his mind in a 45-3 game all he wants, but until you have to go toe-to-toe with an elite team for 60 minutes, it’s hard to get that message across.
CLEMSON: The new-look defensive line
I know Xavier Thomas is all the rage. The former 5-star recruit is all over preseason All-America teams and is considered the next great Clemson defensive lineman. But the Tigers had such an incredible advantage with having Dexter Lawrence, Clelin Ferrell, Christian Wilkins and Austin Bryant all back for last year’s squad. That group was huge in that second half shutout of Alabama (well, except for Lawrence, he was suspended), and really they were huge all year.
Besides Thomas, can Clemson get that kind of all-world push up front? I mean, it’s Brent Venables so he’ll find ways to pressure the quarterback, but Clemson led the country with 54 sacks last season. To assume they’ll have that kind of success this year would be a big leap. That could hurt if they were to meet a team like Georgia in the national championship.
FLORIDA: The offensive line
Last year, it was all about how the Gators were so experienced on the offensive line and how that was going to fuel the turnaround. This year, that could be the thing that holds them back from being elite. Replacing 4 of 5 starters up front won’t be easy, especially in a division that has nothing but defensive minds (Kirby Smart, Mark Stoops, Barry Odom, Will Muschamp, Jeremy Pruitt and Derek Mason).
The great teams impose their will at the line of scrimmage. Will Florida be able to do that? I don’t know, but I do know getting that push up front for a run-heavy offense will be crucial in Dan Mullen’s offense.
GEORGIA: The receivers
I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again. Never has a team made the Playoff when replacing the top 5 receivers from the previous season. Georgia is trying to become the first. That stat was noteworthy following the dismissal of Jeremiah Holloman, who was expected to be Jake Fromm’s go-to target after the Dawgs lost Riley Ridley, Mecole Hardman, Terry Godwin and tight end Isaac Nauta to the NFL Draft.
As every Georgia fan will tell you, there’s still talent in that group. Five-star talent to be specific. Former Cal transfer Demetris Robertson has a major step to make and true freshman George Pickens has been getting rave reviews in camp. But yeah, the numbers are rough:
Running back D’Andre Swift has most receiving yards of any returning player
No returning wide receiver had more than 9 catches for UGA in 2018
No returning WR averaged more than 10 yards per game in 2018
2 returning WRs who caught a pass in 2018
Of total receiving yards (3,177) in 2018 UGA returns 24% of that production
Of total receiving touchdowns (34) in 2018, UGA returns 18% of that production
The good news? Fromm has as much big-game experience as anyone in college football.
LSU: Alabama … and the offensive line
It’s too easy to just say Alabama, though if LSU goes 11-1 with that Texas win, it could have a super interesting Playoff case. Instead of just saying that losing to the Crimson Tide again will be the thing that holds the Tigers back, let’s look at a place where they return a lot of experience — the offensive line.
Garrett Brumfield is the group’s lone departure. Seven offensive linemen who started games, including first-team All-SEC center Lloyd Cushenberry, are back. That’s the good. What’s the bad?
Joe Burrow took more sacks than anyone in the SEC last year — he was pressured on 27.5% of dropbacks — and the run blocking wasn’t much better. Part of that was because of injuries, LSU started a different offensive line combination each of the first 6 games. If that doesn’t change with this returning group, the Tigers will stub their toe multiple times in the regular season.
OHIO STATE: A first-time head coach
Has there ever been a program with a first-time head coach and a first-time starting quarterback who got preseason top 5 love? I can’t think of one. We’ve seen first-time starters thrive at quarterback, no doubt, and we’ve even seen first-time coaches like Lincoln Riley have incredible Year 1 success. That’s exactly what Ohio State hopes Ryan Day is in the post-Urban Meyer era.
There’s no guarantee that happens. There’s also no guarantee that he handles the offense as well now that he has head coaching duties on his plate. Now he’s got to handle media, egos in the locker room and everything in between. That’s on top of the pressure he has of maximizing the rare abilities of Justin Fields.
Just seems like a tall ask for Day to win it all in Year 1.
OKLAHOMA: The “defense”
Speaking of Riley, his teams made Playoff appearances the past 2 years in spite of Oklahoma’s awful defenses. And upon arrival, they lost close games to SEC powers because of their awful defenses. Will that be any different in 2019?
Fortunately for Riley, he’s got a new defensive coordinator (Alex Grinch) who will take over a unit that returns 81% of its defensive production from a year ago. Can Kenneth Murray lead a unit that’s at least average? That’s an interesting question. It figures to be a different feeling for Jalen Hurts after the top-flight defenses he played with at Alabama.
TEXAS: The overall inexperience
Lost in the shuffle of everyone claiming “Texas is back” is the fact that the Longhorns rank dead last among Power 5 teams in percentage of returning production. Dead last. Most of those defensive players who led the effort against Georgia in the Sugar Bowl are gone. This is truly Sam Ehlinger’s team.
And sure, Tom Herman recruited extremely well the past couple of years. There’s no doubt that program is stockpiled with talent. But can a group so inexperienced really take that next step to a title? To do that, Texas would have to beat both LSU and Oklahoma, not to mention avoiding slip-ups to teams like Oklahoma State.
But hey, at least Maryland isn’t on the schedule this year.
This post was edited on 8/22/19 at 11:06 am
17
Posted on 8/22/19 at 11:02 am to RatRodDawg
Is there a reason 90% of this post is in italics and bolded?
Posted on 8/22/19 at 11:04 am to RatRodDawg
Florida, LSU, & Texas are not title contenders. 
Posted on 8/22/19 at 11:05 am to RatRodDawg
Florida on this list. Lmao
Posted on 8/22/19 at 11:06 am to RatRodDawg
quote:
national title contender
quote:
FLORIDA
lol
Posted on 8/22/19 at 11:07 am to Ross
quote:
Is there a reason 90% of this post is in italics and bolded?
To make it easier for folks from Auburn & Alabama to read it.
Posted on 8/22/19 at 11:07 am to RatRodDawg
Thank you for your kindness.
Posted on 8/22/19 at 11:08 am to BoerneAg
Florida and LSU? Yes!
Texas? frick NO!!
Texas? frick NO!!
quote:
Florida, LSU, & Texas are not title contenders
Posted on 8/22/19 at 11:11 am to RatRodDawg
Oklahoma evaluation is incomplete. You can't tag Florida for having to replace 4 out of 5 starters on their Oline and not tag Oklahoma for the same.
Posted on 8/22/19 at 11:12 am to RatRodDawg
quote:
ALABAMA
quote:
CLEMSON
quote:
GEORGIA
Posted on 8/22/19 at 11:13 am to RatRodDawg
quote:
who will take over a unit that returns 81% of its defensive production from a year ago.
This is one of those cases where returning their defense is a bad thing. OU's defense is historically bad.
Posted on 8/22/19 at 11:14 am to RatRodDawg
quote:
national title contender
quote:
Georgia
Posted on 8/22/19 at 11:15 am to BoerneAg
quote:
This is one of those cases where returning their defense is a bad thing.
No it's not.
Posted on 8/22/19 at 11:18 am to CharlotteSooner
quote:
Oklahoma evaluation is incomplete. You can't tag Florida for having to replace 4 out of 5 starters on their Oline and not tag Oklahoma for the same.
Look at the player rankings they are replacing them with. Oklahoma replaces them with all top 200 guys while Florida is all 500+ guys minus one 4*
Posted on 8/22/19 at 11:23 am to Oilfieldbiology
Have College FB writers always been this fricking lazy? I've been reading some of the most shallow, copypasta articles this offseason.
There are a dozen posters on this board alone who could do better than this.
There are a dozen posters on this board alone who could do better than this.
Posted on 8/22/19 at 11:25 am to Oilfieldbiology
That certainly matters but we're replacing four absolute NFL guys with four inexperienced guys. They are high end talent and will be better than the last group eventually, but replacing 4 out of 5 on your Oline is going to cause disruption no matter what IMO.
That's a lot to lose all at once in a position group that depends on being more borg-like than all other position groups.
That's a lot to lose all at once in a position group that depends on being more borg-like than all other position groups.
Posted on 8/22/19 at 11:29 am to BoerneAg
quote:Like any aggy would know what a title contender looks like.
Florida, LSU, & Texas are not title contenders.
Posted on 8/22/19 at 11:31 am to RatRodDawg
quote:
I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again. Never has a team made the Playoff when replacing the top 5 receivers from the previous season
LOL
What a strange thing to beat your chest about. Over the last 5 seasons the amount of teams replacing all 5 of their top receivers has to be minuscule.
Posted on 8/22/19 at 11:32 am to RatRodDawg
Florida, L$U and Texas title contenders? Is this 2008, again?
Posted on 8/22/19 at 11:32 am to RatRodDawg
Clemson won't miss a beat at DE once the young DEs get some snaps. DT is the one area where I think there will be dropoff from last year, and I expect to see it impact our game against A&M. I think that alone will keep the A&M game close.
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