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We're 4-1, about to be 4-2. How do we finish?
Posted on 10/1/17 at 10:11 am
Posted on 10/1/17 at 10:11 am
@ Florida
Bye
Mississippi St
Auburn
New Mexico
@ Ole Miss
@ LSU
-----
Going to the swamp and coming out with a win is going to be very difficult. More than likely we don't do it, but I don't see that one as an auto-loss like Bama (and Auburn?). Now after likely getting our shite pushed in by Bama then losing the Florida, it'll be a make or break game vs State with an extra week to prepare. If we come out and win that game then I think we finish the 2nd half 4-2 (I don't think we can hang with Auburn).
That would mean we end the regular season 8-4 (5-3) sitting in 3rd place behind 0-1 loss Bama, 1-2 loss Auburn. Barring a collapse from UF, we'd be sent to the same mid-tier group of 6 bowl games. While we are 0-2 over the last 2 years in them, they are very winnable. Can we get to 9?
At this point, I have no idea what to think will happen to Sumlin if we finish 8-4 (5-3). Fired or not, we very well could win 9 games and finish ranked in the 20s while most of us expected 6 or 7 wins.
Bye
Mississippi St
Auburn
New Mexico
@ Ole Miss
@ LSU
-----
Going to the swamp and coming out with a win is going to be very difficult. More than likely we don't do it, but I don't see that one as an auto-loss like Bama (and Auburn?). Now after likely getting our shite pushed in by Bama then losing the Florida, it'll be a make or break game vs State with an extra week to prepare. If we come out and win that game then I think we finish the 2nd half 4-2 (I don't think we can hang with Auburn).
That would mean we end the regular season 8-4 (5-3) sitting in 3rd place behind 0-1 loss Bama, 1-2 loss Auburn. Barring a collapse from UF, we'd be sent to the same mid-tier group of 6 bowl games. While we are 0-2 over the last 2 years in them, they are very winnable. Can we get to 9?
At this point, I have no idea what to think will happen to Sumlin if we finish 8-4 (5-3). Fired or not, we very well could win 9 games and finish ranked in the 20s while most of us expected 6 or 7 wins.
13
Posted on 10/1/17 at 10:13 am to Farmer1906
quote:
@ Florida
Bye
Mississippi St
Auburn
New Mexico
@ Ole Miss
@ LSU
Ole Miss and New Mexico are wins
2/4 of the others
8-4 finish
Our ceiling is 10-2. If these Freshman keep getting better, who knows? Sumlin might buy himself an extra year if the right hire isn't available.
This post was edited on 10/1/17 at 10:17 am
Posted on 10/1/17 at 10:16 am to Farmer1906
I see 5 more losses
Posted on 10/1/17 at 10:31 am to Farmer1906
@ Florida leaning toward us pulling this off.
Bye
Mississippi St 50/50
Auburn - Loss
New Mexico - Win
@ Ole Miss - Win
@ LSU - Win
Think we beat either Florida or Miss St. Sumlin going to finish up with 8 wins despite playing a lot of freshman and losing Starkel to start the year. Right now I would say 80% chance that Sumlin going to be HC next year.
Bye
Mississippi St 50/50
Auburn - Loss
New Mexico - Win
@ Ole Miss - Win
@ LSU - Win
Think we beat either Florida or Miss St. Sumlin going to finish up with 8 wins despite playing a lot of freshman and losing Starkel to start the year. Right now I would say 80% chance that Sumlin going to be HC next year.
Posted on 10/1/17 at 10:33 am to Farmer1906
How do we finish?
Losses to Alabama, Florida, Mississippi State, Auburn, Ole Miss, and LSU
Wins vs. New Mexico
5-7 (2-6)
Sumlin fired
Losses to Alabama, Florida, Mississippi State, Auburn, Ole Miss, and LSU
Wins vs. New Mexico
5-7 (2-6)
Sumlin fired
This post was edited on 10/1/17 at 10:57 am
Posted on 10/1/17 at 10:59 am to Farmer1906
6-6 or 7-5. Beat NM, go 1-2 or 2-1 vs the MS schools and LSU. Losses to Bama Auburn and Florida
Posted on 10/1/17 at 11:13 am to Farmer1906
If we stay relatively healthy the rest of the year, 6 wins is the floor and 8 wins the ceiling. If all of the freshmen keep improving and the O-line combinations stabilize, we might be able to steal another game.
We are catching a break with Florida being depleted with suspensions and injuries. Auburn has a single point of failure if Stidham gets injured. Malzahn's offense will not run without a competent QB and I don't think he has a reliable backup.
Right now, the only automatic losses I see are Alabama and Auburn.
We are catching a break with Florida being depleted with suspensions and injuries. Auburn has a single point of failure if Stidham gets injured. Malzahn's offense will not run without a competent QB and I don't think he has a reliable backup.
Right now, the only automatic losses I see are Alabama and Auburn.
Posted on 10/1/17 at 12:33 pm to Farmer1906
6-6 or 5-7.
Posted on 10/2/17 at 1:05 pm to Farmer1906
quote:
@ Florida L
Bye
Mississippi St L
Auburn L
New Mexico W
@ Ole Miss Toss up
@ LSU L
6-6 with a toilet bowl and probably a loss there.
5-7 just as likely.
Posted on 10/2/17 at 1:19 pm to Farmer1906
14-1 
Posted on 10/3/17 at 10:33 am to Farmer1906
10-2 Sumlin stays we fire mazzone hire Kingsbury
Posted on 10/3/17 at 7:14 pm to Farmer1906
We aren't very good but I believe Ole Miss, MSU, LSU and NM are demonstrably worse.
People were impressed by MSU's throttling LSU, but think about what we did to UCLA for three quarters. UCLA is at least as good overall as LSU before LSU quit, and LSU doesn't have the QB play UCLA did that allowed them to come back. I submit that had we played LSU at home that night we would have dominated them thoroughly. I also don't think we'll lose by 40 to Auburn.
I think we're probably even with Florida and would pick us at home against them. Their offense isn't very good, their QB is in flux week to week and their defense isn't what it has been the last few years. They were taken to the wire at home by a bad Tennessee team and a Vandy team full of two stars with no offense. I expect to lose only because it's on the road and Sumlin hasn't faired well against teams with similar talent on the road since Johnny left. I believe Auburn is the only team we've beaten on the road since 2013 I would consider equal or better than us.
If we play EXACTLY like we did in the second half of the Arkansas and USC games I think we'll stumble into 8/9 wins.
All that being said, unless we win all those games AND upset Auburn I'd still fire Sumlin. I think we know what he is at this point and honestly our team next year will be experienced and reasonably deep, it would be a GREAT situation for a new HC to walk into.
People were impressed by MSU's throttling LSU, but think about what we did to UCLA for three quarters. UCLA is at least as good overall as LSU before LSU quit, and LSU doesn't have the QB play UCLA did that allowed them to come back. I submit that had we played LSU at home that night we would have dominated them thoroughly. I also don't think we'll lose by 40 to Auburn.
I think we're probably even with Florida and would pick us at home against them. Their offense isn't very good, their QB is in flux week to week and their defense isn't what it has been the last few years. They were taken to the wire at home by a bad Tennessee team and a Vandy team full of two stars with no offense. I expect to lose only because it's on the road and Sumlin hasn't faired well against teams with similar talent on the road since Johnny left. I believe Auburn is the only team we've beaten on the road since 2013 I would consider equal or better than us.
If we play EXACTLY like we did in the second half of the Arkansas and USC games I think we'll stumble into 8/9 wins.
All that being said, unless we win all those games AND upset Auburn I'd still fire Sumlin. I think we know what he is at this point and honestly our team next year will be experienced and reasonably deep, it would be a GREAT situation for a new HC to walk into.
This post was edited on 10/3/17 at 7:18 pm
Posted on 10/4/17 at 10:16 am to Farmer1906
quote:
@ Florida
Bye
Mississippi St
Auburn
New Mexico
@ Ole Miss
@ LSU
Florida is definitely beatable in the Swamp...should have lost to UT and UK this season. Without Del Rio, they will be even more inept at QB.
Mississippi State has fallen apart after beating LSU.
Auburn looks significantly better than the rest in conference. You could catch them looking forward to their match-up with Georgia the following week.
New Mexico may actually be the second hardest game of this stretch, and they will be shooting for knocking off an SEC team while you will be coming off of a tough match-up against Auburn.
Ole Miss will probably be in complete shambles after back to back games against Auburn and Bama...if they lose the following week to Vandy at home, look for them to completely implode.
LSU will be coming off of a cripple fight in Knoxville against UT. There was a time this might have been a game to build off of. Now...LSU has nothing to gain and everything to lose in Knoxville. If they find a way to lose to Big Loss Lyle...they will drown their sorrows in fried turkey and gravy over Thanksgiving and will completely phone it in the season finale.
Auburn is the only one that I see as a probable loss. The rest are absolutely winnable.
I'm saying that you could easily finish the season 9-3 with a top 25 ranking. Probably finishing 3rd in the West and garnering a bid to either the Outback Bowl or the Tax Slayer Bowl. Either are very nice that time of year.
Posted on 10/5/17 at 7:52 am to Farmer1906
absolute best case is 10-2 (if you keep improving, Aub may be a winnable game)
worst case looks like 7-5
my expectation id 8-4
pulling for y'all; especially this weekend...
worst case looks like 7-5
my expectation id 8-4
pulling for y'all; especially this weekend...
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