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Iron Bowl History - how often do "upsets" happen?

Posted on 11/24/14 at 8:45 am
Posted by SummerOfGeorge
Member since Jul 2013
102699 posts
Posted on 11/24/14 at 8:45 am
We always hear "throw out the record books" with rivalries but the Iron Bowl hasn't had a long history of shocking upsets, though it has happened on occasion.

Since 1979 (upsets teams more than 5 spots apart)
1979 - #1 Alabama 25-18 vs #14 Auburn (N)
1980 - #9 Alabama 34-18 vs Auburn (N)
1981 - #4 Alabama 28-17 vs Auburn (N)
1982 - Auburn 23-22 vs Alabama (N)
1983 - #3 Auburn 23-20 vs #19 Alabama (N)
1984 - Alabama 17-15 vs #11 Auburn (N)
1985 - Alabama 25-23 vs #7 Auburn (N)
1986 - #14 Auburn 21-17 vs #7 Alabama (N)
1987 - #7 Auburn 10-0 vs #18 Alabama (N)
1988 - #7 Auburn 15-10 vs #17 Alabama (N)
1989 - #11 Auburn 30-20 vs #2 Alabama (@AU)
1990 - Alabama 16-7 vs #20 Auburn (LF @UA)
1991 - #8 Alabama 13-6 vs Auburn (LF @AU)
1992 - #2 Alabama 17-0 vs Auburn (LF @UA)
1993 - #6 Auburn 22-14 vs #11 Alabama (@AU)
1994 - #4 Alabama 21-14 vs #6 Auburn (LF @UA)
1995 - #21 Auburn 31-27 vs #17 Alabama (@AU)
1996 - #15 Alabama 24-23 vs Auburn (LF @UA)
1997 - #13 Auburn 18-17 vs Alabama (@AU)
1998 - Alabama 31-17 vs Auburn (LF @UA)
1999 - #8 Alabama 28-17 vs Auburn (@AU)
2000 - #18 Auburn 9-0 vs Alabama (@UA)
2001 - Alabama 31-7 vs #17 Auburn (@AU)
2002 - Auburn 17-7 vs #9 Alabama (@UA)
2003 - Auburn 28-23 vs Alabama (@AU)
2004 - #2 Auburn 21-13 vs Alabama (@UA)
2005 - #11 Auburn 28-18 vs #8 Alabama (@AU)
2006 - #15 Auburn 22-15 vs Alabama (@UA)
2007 - #25 Auburn 17-10 vs Alabama (@AU)
2008 - #1 Alabama 36-0 vs Auburn (@UA)
2009 - #2 Alabama 26-21 vs Auburn (@AU)
2010 - #2 Auburn 28-27 vs #9 Alabama (@UA)
2011 - #2 Alabama 42-14 vs Auburn (@AU)
2012 - #2 Alabama 49-0 vs Auburn (@UA)
2013 - #4 Auburn 34-28 vs #1 Alabama (@AU)

Over the last 35 years there have been
- 7 games in which a team ranked 5 spots lower won
- 2 games in which the lower ranked team won on the road (interestingly enough in back to back years in 2001 and 2002)
- 3 games in which neither team was ranked (1982, 1998, 2003)

Over last 10 years (since 2004)
- 2 upsets, both by Auburn and both in Auburn (though 2005 wasn't much of an upset)
- 8/10 meetings one of the two teams has been in the Top 10 (9/11 including this year)


In the last 23 years there have only been 2 games in which a team ranked 5 spots lower than the other won the game and they were in back to back years (2001 and 2002).
This post was edited on 11/24/14 at 11:54 am
Posted by Tiger n Miami AU83
Miami
Member since Oct 2007
45656 posts
Posted on 11/24/14 at 8:48 am to
1984, 1990, 2001, and 2002 have been the only real upsets in the past 35 years.

Don't care about what the betting line is or the rankings.

The 4 I mentioned are the only ones in 35 years when the team that was definitely better lost.
This post was edited on 11/24/14 at 8:49 am
Posted by imjustafatkid
Alabama
Member since Dec 2011
51098 posts
Posted on 11/24/14 at 8:59 am to
quote:

2013 - #4 Auburn 34-28 vs #1 Alabama (@AU)


A top 5 team beating a top 5 team at home is not an upset.
Posted by allin2010
Auburn
Member since Aug 2011
18159 posts
Posted on 11/24/14 at 9:02 am to
quote:

1990 - Alabama 16-7 vs #20 Auburn (N)
1991 - #8 Alabama 13-6 vs Auburn (N)
1992 - #2 Alabama 17-0 vs Auburn (N)


Those games were not 50-50... They were Bama home games in 1990 and 1992 (Auburn home game in 1991, Pat Dye threw Alabama a bone, his words)
Posted by The Spleen
Member since Dec 2010
38865 posts
Posted on 11/24/14 at 9:09 am to
Upsets may not occur often in the series, but more times than not the game is really close and competitive. Only times it's not competitive is when we blow them out.
Posted by FairhopeTider
Fairhope, Alabama
Member since May 2012
20852 posts
Posted on 11/24/14 at 10:04 am to
I know AU fans don't want like hearing this but that 2002 game still stinks to me. All year, we were so well prepared and in that game we looked all out of sorts. AU came to play from the start, but I still think Fran was out the door and didn't give a damn about it.

Of course I remember walking out of that game and telling a friend "Sucks we lost that one because I don't think we're going to beat Auburn for a few years."
Posted by LooseCannon22282
Mobile
Member since May 2008
33790 posts
Posted on 11/24/14 at 10:43 am to
quote:

1989 - #11 Auburn 30-20 vs #2 Alabama (@AU)
1990 - Alabama 16-7 vs #20 Auburn (LF @UA)


i don't think 1989 was an upset because it was the first Iron Bowl in Auburn ever. Alabama had overachieved that year and Auburn had underachieved.

I think Auburn was finally realizing how good they could really be at the time while Alabama realized they were in over their heads.

other than the spectacular play of Keith McCants, the Alabama defense had a real tough time stopping Auburn that game.

Auburn's defense was pretty stout that year with Craig Ogletree and Quentin Riggins leading the way. I remember Alabama playing pretty well in the 1st half but the second half was no contest.

the 1990 game wasn't a surprise either in my opinion. The Alabama defense entered that game on tear and Auburn really never had much of a chance in that game. They jumped on them early and set the tone.

the Auburn offense had hit a big skid before that game so watching them struggle in that one wasn't surprising.

Alabama's offense had been depleted with injuries to Stacy, Sanderson, and Wimbley but they still had Lamonde Russell, Kevin Turner, and Derrick Lassic.

I think the big difference that year was that Alabama had an All-American kicker in Philip Doyle and he delivered that day with 3 field goals.

Alabama used the kicking game and good defense to beat a team that was struggling on offense. Auburn was still kinda riding their preseason rankings in the polls that year but it was clear that they weren't the same team by the time they played Alabama.
Posted by QuackAttack716
Member since Aug 2011
1377 posts
Posted on 11/24/14 at 11:43 am to
#14 over #7 in '86 is an upset.
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