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Posted on 12/15/13 at 1:33 pm to MrFreakinMiyagi
I think the difference in this game for FSU will be this:
FSU stopping Auburn's rushing game. If they can do it well, FSU has probably a 80% chance of winning. If they don't, they probably have a 40% chance of winning.
I don't think any other element of the game will be as crucial than Auburn's ability to run and FSU's ability to stop it.
FSU stopping Auburn's rushing game. If they can do it well, FSU has probably a 80% chance of winning. If they don't, they probably have a 40% chance of winning.
I don't think any other element of the game will be as crucial than Auburn's ability to run and FSU's ability to stop it.
Posted on 12/15/13 at 1:35 pm to N97883
quote:
And yet they're 12-1
Everyone in this thread is glossing over the "1" after that 12. Did everyone forget Auburn got beat down by a three loss team to the tune of two touchdowns?
Posted on 12/15/13 at 1:38 pm to Bench McElroy
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Auburn is literally terrible in every aspect of the game that doesn't deal with running the football. They are 109th in passing offense, 66th in rushing defense, 102nd in passing defense and 90th in total defense. All of the previous SEC champions had to deal with tough schedules too and they were never that bad statistically. Auburn is a mediocre team that has gotten lucky all year. If they somehow miraculously beat Florida State, they'll go down as the worst national champion of all-time.
But, but...the SEC has won 7 in a row...and FSU is facing the SEC...
Didn't you hear...apparently, the entire conference...
FSU faces SEC in BCS Title Game
Posted on 12/15/13 at 1:38 pm to Zamoro10
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Auburn is outmatched on the O and D lines...period.
some numbers that might surprise you...
FSU ranks 80th nationally in sacks allowed per game (AU ranks 20th).... FSU ranks 55th nationally in TFLs allowed per game (AU ranks 17th).
Auburn has the better OL and FSU probably has the better DL (though it's slight imo)... There's no question who has the better back seven, though.
Auburn can win the battles up front... we have to in order to have a chance.
Posted on 12/15/13 at 1:43 pm to rocketc
quote:
I think the difference in this game for FSU will be this: FSU stopping Auburn's rushing game. If they can do it well, FSU has probably a 80% chance of winning
I'd love to know how Auburn will win this game if they can't run the ball effectively.
Posted on 12/15/13 at 1:46 pm to MrFreakinMiyagi
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I'd love to know how Auburn will win this game if they can't run the ball effectively.
it would take a bunch of mistakes from FSU, but it wouldn't be out of the realm of possibility (though probably less than the 20% listed).... blown coverages, turnovers, penalties, etc... also, AU would have to continue to win the special teams battles, like they've done for most of the year. FSU doesn't have a great punter, but has an amazing kicker.
Posted on 12/15/13 at 1:46 pm to the808bass
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So your argument is that SOS is a really important measure when it makes your point. And not when it doesn't. Got it.
You still mad about the medical cart on the sideline?
When people point out stats, I'll point to others. The point is FSU is in the ACC and Auburn is in the SEC... and not just the SEC but the SEC West. As Cowherd said not long ago screw the SEC, just give me the SEC West.
How can you compare stats from a team in the ACC and the SEC? You can't.
Posted on 12/15/13 at 1:48 pm to fatheadgator
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You right, it doesn't mean FSU sucks....what it means is that FSU may not be tested. Can they blow out Idaho? Or actually any team by the 3rd Q? We know this answer but what happens in the 4th? Down by two scores? Can they recover?
We don't know this answer....this is what a tough schedule answers. We laugh at Aub's 3 miracle wins...but we neglect to remember--- Aub was down 7 points to the number one team in the nation with 45 seconds left....and beat them by 6- that's intense man.
FSU soft schedule last year caused them to lose to UF and I think will be to their detriment this game.
Posted on 12/15/13 at 1:49 pm to Archie Bengal Bunker
It's got nothing to do with it. I haven't forgotten but that has no bearing on the upcoming game.
Does it prove that Auburn can lose? Of course they can. Does the 13-0 for FSU prove that they cannot lose? No, it doesn't. If it did, then the game shouldn't even be played.
I'm not sure if FSU and LSU played tomorrow that LSU wouldn't win. But that's irrelevant too.
At the end of the day FSU's team looks fantastic on paper. They look great on the field. Auburn looks good on paper, and damn good on the field.
To say FSU isn't better than Auburn would be foolish. All we have right now is stats. By stats FSU is better. But those that feel Auburn can win have valid reasons too.
Like if DUKE can go 10-2 in the ACC-Coastal, they can go 11-1 in the ACC-Atlantic. If Duke can go 11-1 in the ACC Atlantic, then Ole Miss, LSU or UGA could do that as well. Probably Mississippi St. too!
So Florida St. hasn't played anyone of note except Clemson, and they throttled them on their own field. And Clemson was handled by South Carolina pretty easily and South Carolina didn't win the SEC east!
So to all you guys thinking FSU wins by 9 or more maybe, maybe not. Is Auburn = '92 bama, of course not. Is '92 Miami = FSU? Nope.
Does it prove that Auburn can lose? Of course they can. Does the 13-0 for FSU prove that they cannot lose? No, it doesn't. If it did, then the game shouldn't even be played.
I'm not sure if FSU and LSU played tomorrow that LSU wouldn't win. But that's irrelevant too.
At the end of the day FSU's team looks fantastic on paper. They look great on the field. Auburn looks good on paper, and damn good on the field.
To say FSU isn't better than Auburn would be foolish. All we have right now is stats. By stats FSU is better. But those that feel Auburn can win have valid reasons too.
Like if DUKE can go 10-2 in the ACC-Coastal, they can go 11-1 in the ACC-Atlantic. If Duke can go 11-1 in the ACC Atlantic, then Ole Miss, LSU or UGA could do that as well. Probably Mississippi St. too!
So Florida St. hasn't played anyone of note except Clemson, and they throttled them on their own field. And Clemson was handled by South Carolina pretty easily and South Carolina didn't win the SEC east!
So to all you guys thinking FSU wins by 9 or more maybe, maybe not. Is Auburn = '92 bama, of course not. Is '92 Miami = FSU? Nope.
Posted on 12/15/13 at 1:52 pm to lowspark12
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Auburn has the better OL and FSU probably has the better DL (though it's slight imo)... There's no question who has the better back seven, though.
quote:
FSU ranks 80th nationally in sacks allowed per game (AU ranks 20th).... FSU ranks 55th nationally in TFLs allowed per game (AU ranks 17th).
I would think that AU's ranking in sacks allowed would be better, considering they they throw he ball about 6 times a game.
quote:
Auburn has the better OL
No, they don't
quote:
FSU probably has the better DL (though it's slight imo)...
Nah.... it's significantly better
Posted on 12/15/13 at 1:55 pm to N97883
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I bet you, if Auburn had played Duke instead of Missouri, that Auburn would've done better than scoring nothing in the first quarter and 17 at the half.
I keep seeing talk about first quarter, first half, etc... if football games were 58 minutes long, Auburn would be 7-5.
Posted on 12/15/13 at 1:56 pm to N97883
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How can you compare stats from a team in the ACC and the SEC? You can't.
So, you're of the opinion that we should just always ignore everything, and just pick the SEC west team, no matter what?
Genius.
This post was edited on 12/15/13 at 1:56 pm
Posted on 12/15/13 at 1:57 pm to MrFreakinMiyagi
quote:
I'd love to know how Auburn will win this game if they can't run the ball effectively.
The one and only time Auburn was held to under 200 yards rushing in a game was way back in September against Mississippi St. At that time Auburn's QB Marshall had only been on campus for a month or so.
He passed for 339 yards and with 1:46 left in the game started a 12 play, 88 yard drive that was capped off with a beautiful TD pass with 10 seconds left.
But, Marshall can't pass. Please pass the word.
Posted on 12/15/13 at 1:59 pm to MrFreakinMiyagi
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So, you're of the opinion that we should just always ignore everything, and just pick the SEC west team, no matter what?
For the last 7 years that would have worked just fine.
Posted on 12/15/13 at 2:00 pm to Archie Bengal Bunker
quote:
I keep seeing talk about first quarter, first half, etc... if football games were 58 minutes long, Auburn would be 7-5.
The whole battle tested thing bothering you?
Posted on 12/15/13 at 2:01 pm to USMC_EOD
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Same hype, same trash talking, same predictions of a margin of victory by multiple touchdowns for FSU, same 8 point line............ Same type of game/results?
Not quite the same kind of defenses though...
Posted on 12/15/13 at 2:02 pm to N97883
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How can you compare stats from a team in the ACC and the SEC? You can't.
This thread would be a lot shorter then. Auburn posters included.
Posted on 12/15/13 at 2:02 pm to USMC_EOD
Auburn is not anywhere near as big of an underdog as Bama.
That was one of the biggest upsets of all time, and we destroyed them.
That was one of the biggest upsets of all time, and we destroyed them.
Posted on 12/15/13 at 2:03 pm to rocketc
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At the end of the day FSU's team looks fantastic on paper. They look great on the field. Auburn looks good on paper, and damn good on the field.
Actually, on paper, AU doesn't look like anything special at all, except for running the football.
I wouldn't say they look damn good on the field either. They're luck as frick to be here.
quote:
To say FSU isn't better than Auburn would be foolish. All we have right now is stats. By stats FSU is better. But those that feel Auburn can win have valid reasons too.
They absolutely can. Those predicting a win by AU, an them doing so by multiple scores is foolish. But what can we expect, their reasoning is "because SEC, that's why!!!"
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