Started By
Message
re: Hunger Games - Week 12: Results....................
Posted on 11/20/13 at 9:11 am to Wild Thang
Posted on 11/20/13 at 9:11 am to Wild Thang
quote:
I don't understand anything you posted, but I trust the quinella.
Everything he said made total sense. I was a little dumbfounded by the sheer number of "logic errors" (as Whopper affectionately called them) that I saw in the picks.....but I wasn't about to say anything.....
1
Posted on 11/20/13 at 9:28 am to S1C EM
quote:
but I wasn't about to say anything
Yeah...picking a favorite and then assigning yourself a 9 pt spread seemed a little odd when 3 was the minimum but hey....who am I to question the genius of my fellow posters?
Posted on 11/20/13 at 9:48 am to WhopperDawg
quote:
WhopperDawg
Thank you for your Mercy.
I am in your debt..... Onward!....
Posted on 11/20/13 at 10:06 am to SquatchDawg
quote:
Yeah...picking a favorite and then assigning yourself a 9 pt spread seemed a little odd when 3 was the minimum but hey
Doesn't seem odd to me at all.......
Aside from the fact that you couldn't just put 3 points for every single game, when the Vegas line has a team favored by much more than 9 points, assigning them only 9 points puts the odds more in your favor.
The points had to go somewhere.
Posted on 11/20/13 at 10:18 am to Jefferson Dawg
quote:
The points had to go somewhere
If you only picked favorites you're right but most everyone picked at least one underdog. Keeping your favorites at the minimum spread and loading all extra points into your dog picks made more sense to me. I was worried that even +15 wasn't going to be enough for us against AU after the 1st half.
This post was edited on 11/20/13 at 10:19 am
Posted on 11/20/13 at 10:22 am to SquatchDawg
If I had it to do over again, I would have taken all favorites at -3, except the Georgia game, in which I would have taken Georgia at +27.
Posted on 11/20/13 at 10:22 am to Jefferson Dawg
quote:
Aside from the fact that you couldn't just put 3 points for every single game, when the Vegas line has a team favored by much more than 9 points, assigning them only 9 points puts the odds more in your favor.
You're on the wrong trail, Jeffy. The "logic flaw" comes into play when you assign the favorite a 3 point margin and THEN pick the dog to win. Nine times out of ten, the favorite is going to win by at least the 3. If you assign them 9, for instance and then they win, but only by 6, you screwed yourself.
Conversely, where you should have put the majority of your points were in games where you thought it might be a toss up. Example:
Auburn (fav) 24 Georgia (dog) <----This is what I did making Auburn the 24 point favorite and betting they wouldn't come anywhere close to beating us by that margin by picking the Dawgs.
Likewise....if you did this:
Auburn (fav) 5 Georgia (dog) <----You lost this game.
In other words, you use your points to make it damn near impossible for the favorite to cover (if you think it's likely a close game) and you pick the dog. If you gave your favorite a 3 point spread and then picked the dog, you were setting yourself up to lose.
This post was edited on 11/20/13 at 10:26 am
Posted on 11/20/13 at 10:35 am to S1C EM
I agree with sicem. I can only use the excuse of making last minute pics from the hunting camp and just throwing points at the board.
Posted on 11/20/13 at 12:17 pm to S1C EM
quote:
You're on the wrong trail, Jeffy. The "logic flaw" comes into play when you assign the favorite a 3 point margin and THEN pick the dog to win
Look....I realize that you are very impressed with yourself because your strategy worked this time........but that's not even the scenario Squatch and I were talking about. He said assigning 9 to a game and picking the favorite was odd. I actually did just that exact scenario and won the pick which is why its funny to me. Thanks.
quote:
Nine times out of ten, the favorite is going to win by at least the 3. If you assign them 9, for instance and then they win, but only by 6, you screwed yourself.
This is just plain ridiculous.
If you even bothered to look at what Vegas said about our games, you'd know that something like 4 or 5 of them were set at THREE.
According to your logic though.....you have cracked the Vegas code and would have won 90% of these games because of your "9 of 10" epiphany.
quote:
If you gave your favorite a 3 point spread and then picked the dog, you were setting yourself up to lose
Again. Complete and total nonsense.
Posted on 11/20/13 at 12:27 pm to Jefferson Dawg
My strategy was picking my favorites by 3 and sharing the remaining points beefing up the spread for the underdogs I picked. You people are confusing me
Posted on 11/20/13 at 12:35 pm to tween the hedges
quote:
My strategy was picking my favorites by 3 and sharing the remaining points beefing up the spread for the underdogs I picked. You people are confusing me
This is really it in a nutshell. Jeff is having an aneurysm because I guess I made it too complicated.
He picked a favorite by 9 and got it right. Problem is, he could have picked them by 3 and still got it right, PLUS had 6 points to use in picking a DOG that might have separated him from the pack a little.
Posted on 11/20/13 at 12:37 pm to Jefferson Dawg
quote:
He said assigning 9 to a game and picking the favorite was odd. I actually did just that exact scenario and won the pick which is why its funny to me. Thanks.
Because you could have set it at 3 and then used the other 6 to boost the spread on a pick where you went with the DOG.
Posted on 11/20/13 at 1:00 pm to S1C EM
quote:
Jeff is having an aneurysm because I guess I made it too complicated
Where and when did I have an aneurism?
You just said that "9 times out of 10 that the favorite will win by more than 3points". This is a retarded and embarrassing statement.
Sorry, for pointing this Fact out, but if you weren't acting like a giddy child making sure everyone knows how you were on to the Whopper strategy, then i might have ignored it.
quote:
He picked a favorite by 9 and got it right. Problem is, he could have picked them by 3 and still got it right, PLUS had 6 points to use in picking a DOG that might have separated him from the pack a little.
The problem here is that you are basing the success of your strategy on it's success with picking only 8 games.
I understand exactly what Whopper explained in his post. But, i don't agree with it. All the points had to be used. No matter what, there was a gamble. If you wanted to assure that you got one game correct by loading all the points up on one and picking the underdog, thats great. So be it. But, acting like it's the fool-proof unbeatable strategy based on 8 games is absurd.
Posted on 11/20/13 at 1:23 pm to S1C EM
quote:
Because you could have set it at 3 and then used the other 6 to boost the spread on a pick where you went with the DOG.
This is ridiculous.
What if I liked the favorites more than the underdogs?
Why would I want to save any more points for them to overcome than I have to? 
Posted on 11/20/13 at 1:29 pm to Jefferson Dawg
I did none of that. I woke up late and super hungover. I just threw points at the board and hoped for the best. shite happens.
I'll be back next year and Whopper is my first target. Thanks Jeff for doing this, the best pick 'em I've ever been a part of. HGMF!!!
I'll be back next year and Whopper is my first target. Thanks Jeff for doing this, the best pick 'em I've ever been a part of. HGMF!!!
Posted on 11/20/13 at 1:55 pm to tween the hedges
4 more down...
12 to go...
Onward...
12 to go...
Onward...
This post was edited on 11/20/13 at 1:58 pm
Posted on 11/20/13 at 2:00 pm to dallasga6
From someone who wasn't really paying attention last season...how far does this go? Is the winner determined in bowl season or will it wrapped up conference champ week?
Posted on 11/20/13 at 2:11 pm to JacketFan77
quote:
If I had it to do over again, I would have taken all favorites at -3, except the Georgia game, in which I would have taken Georgia at +27.
But, using this supposedly "fool-proof" Sic Em strategy........you still would have only scored a FOUR.......and would have still been up for elimination.
Anyway.....Thanks for playing, man.....and for all the enthusiasm.
Good Times!Posted on 11/20/13 at 2:13 pm to LewDawg
Lew Dawg, thanks for playing man. That was an epic battle we had week before last! Thanks for supporting The Games......
Thanks for supporting The Games......Posted on 11/20/13 at 2:16 pm to Jefferson Dawg
quote:
This is ridiculous.
No, it isn't.
quote:
What if I liked the favorites more than the underdogs?
Then you do it however you want in that case. No one said you had to pick a dog. It's just my opinion that if the "favorite" did not have a particularly "favorable" match-up (something of a push....say like the GA/FL game), you might have been safer by inflating the spread in favor of the favorite and picking the dog.
Dammit. Now i'm confused.
quote:
Why would I want to save any more points for them to overcome than I have to?
Huh? If you picked all favorites, then yes, you'd be making things more difficult in some of those games....6 point spread that every favorite would need to cover if you divided them evenly (not saying you would). Still totally possible. I'm not saying there is no random luck to this. I'm just saying that Whopper's strategy is pretty sound.
Chill, bro. ONWARD.
This post was edited on 11/20/13 at 2:18 pm
Page 3 of 4
Latest Georgia News
Popular
Back to top
Follow SECRant for SEC Football News