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Do the handicappers have it right?
Posted on 6/6/11 at 7:47 pm
Posted on 6/6/11 at 7:47 pm
Professional handicappers create an expectation for the outcome of a game and weight it to make betting on the game a fair proposition for bettors on both sides. I pay close attention to the handicappers lines on SEC games - and have been doing so for 20+ years. Over the long term they've proven to be extremely accurate at determining the outcome of individual games and longer term predictions for full seasons.
If you consider the "line" to be a fair prediction for the outcome of a game then it should also be considered a fair indicator of the success or failure of a teams season. The handicappers in Vegas think Auburn will be the underdog in as many as 8 games this year. They think Alabama will be favored in all of their regular season games. LSU will be favored in all but two of their regular season games - Oregon is currently a pick em and they're a dog to Alabama. UGA is predicted to be favored in all of their games but one. In my game by game prediction threads I used subscription preseason handicapping services from Vegas and offshore odds makers. It's been invaluable to me over the years. The only bias in sports handicapping is the weight added for irrational fans unreasonable expectations.
These are the handicappers predictions for the 4 teams that will determine the winner of the SEC. DO you agree with them?
Alabama favored in all 12 regular season games.
Georgia favored in all of their regular season games but 1 - they're the dog to South Carolina.
LSU is favored in all regular season games but 2 -Oregon (pick em) and they're a dog to Alabama.
South Carolina is favored in all regular season games but 1 - they're the dog to Arkansas.
If you consider the "line" to be a fair prediction for the outcome of a game then it should also be considered a fair indicator of the success or failure of a teams season. The handicappers in Vegas think Auburn will be the underdog in as many as 8 games this year. They think Alabama will be favored in all of their regular season games. LSU will be favored in all but two of their regular season games - Oregon is currently a pick em and they're a dog to Alabama. UGA is predicted to be favored in all of their games but one. In my game by game prediction threads I used subscription preseason handicapping services from Vegas and offshore odds makers. It's been invaluable to me over the years. The only bias in sports handicapping is the weight added for irrational fans unreasonable expectations.
These are the handicappers predictions for the 4 teams that will determine the winner of the SEC. DO you agree with them?
Alabama favored in all 12 regular season games.
Georgia favored in all of their regular season games but 1 - they're the dog to South Carolina.
LSU is favored in all regular season games but 2 -Oregon (pick em) and they're a dog to Alabama.
South Carolina is favored in all regular season games but 1 - they're the dog to Arkansas.
This post was edited on 6/6/11 at 7:52 pm
10
Posted on 6/6/11 at 7:50 pm to ketchupmoney
Auburn was a 500:1 pick to win the National Championship last year
So YES. Handicapping is dead nuts.
So YES. Handicapping is dead nuts.
Posted on 6/6/11 at 7:51 pm to ketchupmoney
didn't read...lol
Posted on 6/6/11 at 7:53 pm to ketchupmoney
What do the Arky lines look like right now? Thanks in advance.
Posted on 6/6/11 at 7:55 pm to ketchupmoney
Yea didn't read that novel but why would UGA be favored in all of them but south Carolina at home?
Posted on 6/6/11 at 9:14 pm to ketchupmoney
quote:
The only bias in sports handicapping is the weight added for irrational fans unreasonable expectations.
quote:
They think Alabama will be favored in all of their regular season games.
Posted on 6/7/11 at 10:37 am to ketchupmoney
It is not the handicappers that "get it right". It is Power Analysis.
If you get a LARGE sample size, the average will be very nearly the correct answer.
This is why the line MOVES. The handicapper is guessing where the public will be at first...then, as the bets come in, he changes the line to account for it.
So, he is not guessing the score of the game. He is guessing the thoughts of the betting public.
So, the final "line" may indeed be very close. But, that is a function of a huge sample size (bettors on sporting events)
If you get a LARGE sample size, the average will be very nearly the correct answer.
This is why the line MOVES. The handicapper is guessing where the public will be at first...then, as the bets come in, he changes the line to account for it.
So, he is not guessing the score of the game. He is guessing the thoughts of the betting public.
So, the final "line" may indeed be very close. But, that is a function of a huge sample size (bettors on sporting events)
Posted on 6/7/11 at 2:52 pm to ketchupmoney
"The line" is designed and adjusted as betting occurs to try and equalize the amounts wagered on each team. And the bookie collects the vig. So you bet 50 team A and I bet 50 team B. You lose and pay the bookie 55. He gives me 50 and pockets 5.
Posted on 6/7/11 at 3:05 pm to ketchupmoney
All that will change once the season starts
Posted on 6/7/11 at 3:31 pm to ketchupmoney
SEC-W 
Mfricking brutal....
Mfricking brutal....
Posted on 6/7/11 at 5:48 pm to ketchupmoney
The oddsmakers ever since Bob Martin, Sonny Reizner, Roxy Roxborough, Kenny White, LVSC, etc..have made solid lines, and they have become even sharper in the computer/information age. As the regional lines, information gaps, and delays/relays, that were once a cottage-industry and playground for the well-connected sharps and their followers, have been practically eliminated.
But, often, many people give all the credit to lines, and/or their drifts, and settling/closing numbers, all to the Linesmakers and BMs, when it is quite often the early cappers, syndicates, and wiseguys, that are the ones that shape them up and down, on Sunday nights and early Monday mornings offshore and in the streets of LV, when first released.
Many of the biggest and best sportsbettors and cappers, etc..are native southerners, Billy Walters, Billy Baxter, etc..
Though it seems that old-school seaboarders up north..out west..and offshore, midwesterners, and the left coast sharps based in LV, seem to get all the hype in wiseguy lore and circles.
For decades now, NYC, LV, and Offshore's sharp lines on deep south football, SEC, etc..is quite often based upon it's tentacles and connections into the Sunbelt..just the same as other region's teams and insiders too. Be it scouts, cappers, whale bettors, local BMs,etc..and their connections and proxy to it's teams.
But, often, many people give all the credit to lines, and/or their drifts, and settling/closing numbers, all to the Linesmakers and BMs, when it is quite often the early cappers, syndicates, and wiseguys, that are the ones that shape them up and down, on Sunday nights and early Monday mornings offshore and in the streets of LV, when first released.
Many of the biggest and best sportsbettors and cappers, etc..are native southerners, Billy Walters, Billy Baxter, etc..
Though it seems that old-school seaboarders up north..out west..and offshore, midwesterners, and the left coast sharps based in LV, seem to get all the hype in wiseguy lore and circles.
For decades now, NYC, LV, and Offshore's sharp lines on deep south football, SEC, etc..is quite often based upon it's tentacles and connections into the Sunbelt..just the same as other region's teams and insiders too. Be it scouts, cappers, whale bettors, local BMs,etc..and their connections and proxy to it's teams.
This post was edited on 6/7/11 at 6:01 pm
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