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Tourney projection- 5 in Portland
Posted on 2/10/26 at 4:00 pm
Posted on 2/10/26 at 4:00 pm
Latest bracketology projection has us as a 5 in Portland with Gonzaga as the 4. Sounds like about how the committee will treat us if given the chance.
https://www.espn.com/espn/feature/story/_/page/bracketology/ncaa-bracketology-2026-march-madness-men-field-predictions
Edited to add that my complaint is not with the seed but having to travel across the continent to play a rematch against a team who will basically have a home game and who would currently have to be one of the top 4s.
But whatever. Win some games and projections don’t matter.
https://www.espn.com/espn/feature/story/_/page/bracketology/ncaa-bracketology-2026-march-madness-men-field-predictions
Edited to add that my complaint is not with the seed but having to travel across the continent to play a rematch against a team who will basically have a home game and who would currently have to be one of the top 4s.
But whatever. Win some games and projections don’t matter.
This post was edited on 2/10/26 at 4:59 pm
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Posted on 2/10/26 at 4:20 pm to dirtsandwich
quote:
Latest bracketology projection has us as a 5 in Portland with Gonzaga as the 4. Sounds like about how the committee will treat us if given the chance.
We're currently 19th in Kenpom and Torvik. A 5 seed is about right.
Posted on 2/10/26 at 4:28 pm to RollTide33
5 is about right. Just sucks that team was getting used to playing with Bediako. He had his best game Saturday. Now they have to readjust. Luckily, next few games aren’t that hard
Posted on 2/10/26 at 4:48 pm to Allthatfades
Agree that a 5 is about right (currently). In Portland against the Zags is not ideal.
Posted on 2/11/26 at 9:41 am to dirtsandwich
quote:
Agree that a 5 is about right (currently). In Portland against the Zags is not ideal.
Unless the post situation post Bediako improves this is a team with a sweet 16 ceiling that ill be far more concerned with which teams we have to play and the officiating that day than whether we're a 3 or a 6.
I see no reason to think we can beat any team with an elite front court or win consistently in games where the whistles are slow resulting in perimeter hand checking and grabbing off pick and rolls length or against teams with elite defensive length on the perimeter.
We're soft down low and small outside, we need to manage expectations IMO.
Posted on 2/11/26 at 9:54 am to tide06
quote:
small outside,
Not really. Holloway is the only "short" guy, and he is 6'1. Wrightsell is 6'3 and then the rest of the backcourt is 6'4 or taller.
Posted on 2/11/26 at 10:24 am to VaBamaMan
quote:
Not really. Holloway is the only "short" guy, and he is 6'1. Wrightsell is 6'3 and then the rest of the backcourt is 6'4 or taller.
This team struggles to get quality outside looks against other teams with length because they arent respecting any interior post threats.
Duke smothered us that way last year.
Are we slightly longer outside this year than last? Absolutely
Are they showing that they can get enough clean looks off against quality perimeter defenses to win consistently given the lack of other threats? IMO no.
Posted on 2/11/26 at 11:52 am to tide06
The Duke game felt less about interior post threats and more about length bothering small guards who couldn't create off the bounce.
I think that's why Philon was the only one who was able to create consistently (Sears struggled a lot with this which resulted in paint touches with nowhere to go; Biz was much less decisive when driving and probed more last year).
I think that's why Philon was the only one who was able to create consistently (Sears struggled a lot with this which resulted in paint touches with nowhere to go; Biz was much less decisive when driving and probed more last year).
Posted on 2/11/26 at 1:27 pm to tide06
quote:IMO, this is about right.
Unless the post situation post Bediako improves this is a team with a sweet 16 ceiling that ill be far more concerned with which teams we have to play and the officiating that day than whether we're a 3 or a 6.
I see no reason to think we can beat any team with an elite front court or win consistently in games where the whistles are slow resulting in perimeter hand checking and grabbing off pick and rolls length or against teams with elite defensive length on the perimeter.
We're soft down low and small outside, we need to manage expectations IMO.
With the abundance of good shooting guards, I'm not sure why Oats doesn't turn up the pace and sprint the guards and #3 forward down the court on a rebound. IF they're having trouble getting open from the 3 point line, and not being able to penetrate the lane, I'd rather see them play a 3-on-3 game without the bigs, that fast breaks can bring. Also, It can wear out a team that's not very guard heavy.
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