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Bama by the Numbers - IU
Posted on 12/27/25 at 2:14 am
Posted on 12/27/25 at 2:14 am
NOTES:
-If you arent the type to want to read bad news, this is your chance to bail out before you get upset... youve now been warned
-On paper anyway this is the biggest statistical disadvantage Bama has had in a game since I started tracking this stuff midway through the Saban era
-The only area Bama holds a data advantage is in SOS (1 vs 21)
OFFENSE
-Its worth noting that against OU Ty Simpson had his first 150+ QB Rating / 8+ YPA game per ESPN since Tennessee back in October
-Theres still no point discussing a running game because absent the one long run of 30 yards we still averaged under 2YPA amongst the backs and IU while not as good as OU against the run is almost top 10
-Its also a positive that we topped 30 against an FBS team for the first time against OU since Tennessee as well (both it should be noted involved a pick 6)
-The only two top 20 passing offenses in adj YPA IU has faced all year are Illinois (18th) and Oregon (19th). In other words they havent played an elite passing attack all season on paper but in fairness neither of those teams got to 200 passing yards on the game
-On paper IU's defense is on par with OU in terms of adj scoring defense but not quite as elite as far as adj rushing YPC at 11th and 16th in adj passing YPA
-IU has only allowed two teams to get to 20 points (Oregon and Penn State)
-IU will be without their arguably best defensive lineman which at least should give our tackles a better shot at protecting Ty when he looks to take deeper shots
DEFENSE
-We're facing an offense thats 2nd in adj passing YPA and and 8th in rushing YPC, its not going to be an easy day for the defense
-Obviously Mendoza won the Heisman and its easy to try to discount his season based on SOS, but its worth noting that at least on paper he's already played the #1 and #3 passing YPA defenses (Iowa and Ohio State) and finished both those games with 150+ QB ratings and 3/2 TD/INT ratio so against elite defenses he's been human at least
-Mendoza throws picks against good defenses but they don't really fumble the ball so avoiding turnovers on offense is critical because they're +1.5 turnovers PER GAME right now
-The data seems to think we will have a major problem stopping their run game as they're top 10 and we're way back at 60th defensively and they could even hit 5YPC if trends play out
OVERALL
-This comes down to whether the Big Ten has been so bad in the middle to bottom of the conference that a team like Indiana has exploited bad teams to run out exceptional adjusted numbers because if not they're easily the best team in the nation and really lack any major flaw despite not having elite NFL talent
-I suspect its some of both where they're really good, but not quite as good as the data would suggest because of just how bad some of their opponents have been and they played absolutely no one out of conference that would give us something to baseline them against.
-Their game against Ohio State looked a heck of a lot like the Ohio State-Texas game however (13-10 vs 14-7) but there was a lot more production for OSU against IU (264 total yards, 8.4 YPA) than there were against Texas (203, 6.3 YPA)
-The other obvious data point to look at is Wisconsin who they beat 31-7 (Bama won 38-14 with backups in late) while allowing only 167 yards (Bama allowed 208) and putting up 388 (Bama hit 454).
-So in a game where Bama pulled their starters and Mendoza played virtually the whole way Bama looked slightly better
-All of this to divert away from what the computers think should be a two score loss for Bama (32-21 on average) if IU is what the data says they are
-Bama is as healthy as we've been in a month, but this is gonna be a tough one...
10
Posted on 12/27/25 at 4:46 am to tide06
The big stat matchup for this game is going to be 3rd down efficiency.
Alabama is a 3rd down and long conversion offense at this juncture. We are not incredibly efficient on 1st and 2nd down. However, Alabama finished 2-12 on 3rd downs in Norman but were an efficient offense overall for 2.5 quarters of the game. A lot of those failed conversions were in the first 1.5 quarters.
Still, you should expect what our season has been overall not a little over half of the previous football game. Alabama will probably be in 3rd and long quite a bit and need to hit on converting them at a decent clip against an elite 3rd down defense.
Alabama is a 3rd down and long conversion offense at this juncture. We are not incredibly efficient on 1st and 2nd down. However, Alabama finished 2-12 on 3rd downs in Norman but were an efficient offense overall for 2.5 quarters of the game. A lot of those failed conversions were in the first 1.5 quarters.
Still, you should expect what our season has been overall not a little over half of the previous football game. Alabama will probably be in 3rd and long quite a bit and need to hit on converting them at a decent clip against an elite 3rd down defense.
This post was edited on 12/27/25 at 4:48 am
Posted on 12/27/25 at 7:19 am to tide06
quote:
So in a game where Bama pulled their starters and Mendoza played virtually the whole way Bama looked slightly better
IMO, this is why IU looks so good when looking at statistics. They keep their starters in and keep running up the score against bad teams. It’s like when I play NCAA 26 and score 15 TDs with my QB so it makes my stats look better when I throw 3 INTs vs UGA.
I won’t believe IU is elite until I see them win 3-4 games in a row against great to elite competition.
Posted on 12/27/25 at 8:57 am to tide06
Now this is the stuff that brings me back to this site. Good work
Posted on 12/27/25 at 9:05 am to tide06
Great write up. Anything I would have to say is pure opinion.
Posted on 12/27/25 at 9:17 am to tide06
The numbers are what they are and on paper Indiana is the better team. I'll just remind everybody that 92 Miami should have blown us out, too. We all know how that ended and that's why we actually play the games. Roll tide!
Posted on 12/27/25 at 9:24 am to TizzyT4theUofA
There's simply no other conference in the country that gives you top level competition over the course of a season. From Miss St to USCe to AU to FL, even the lower level teams will bust you in the mouth EVERY week.
Nothing the talking heads on TV can spin will make other leagues as competitive as the SEC.
Is Indiana elite? They've played pretty damn good against OSU and Oregon but we do not know if they're elite yet.
Nothing the talking heads on TV can spin will make other leagues as competitive as the SEC.
Is Indiana elite? They've played pretty damn good against OSU and Oregon but we do not know if they're elite yet.
Posted on 12/27/25 at 9:36 am to bamarep
I'd love a similation with us playing their schedule and them playing ours, just to see what the numbers spit out.
Posted on 12/27/25 at 9:36 am to tide06
IU is going down.
Posted on 12/27/25 at 9:38 am to Diego Ricardo
quote:
Alabama is a 3rd down and long conversion offense at this juncture. We are not incredibly efficient on 1st and 2nd down. However, Alabama finished 2-12 on 3rd downs in Norman but were an efficient offense overall for 2.5 quarters of the game. A lot of those failed conversions were in the first 1.5 quarters.
Been that way due to the lack of a running game all season.
It’s why it was so destructive when we stopped being an efficient and consistent 60-70% passing% team and became one who was just throwing because we couldn’t do anything else well.
To me the only advantage in staying under 3rd and 7 or so is to keep the check down and HB dump off to the flats as a realistic option to get a conversion without having to try to hit tight windows on intermediate throws in order to move the chains every series over and over which is a really tough way to do business consistently as a team who hasn’t been at all explosive until OU with the downfield looks.
Ty is going to have to be a 60%+ guy who can avoid the big sacks by feeling pressure and getting the ball out (and not have drives killed by terrible drops) or we’re basically sunk against a team that doesn’t give up anything easy.
This post was edited on 12/27/25 at 9:57 am
Posted on 12/27/25 at 9:44 am to tide06
Our issues on 3rd have also developed because of dropped passes. Hold onto the ball and we get back to being efficient again.
Posted on 12/27/25 at 9:49 am to tide06
Call me crazy but I think we approach 150 rushing yards in this game and win rather comfortably. IU is a very well-coached and precise team but I don't think that will be enough for them to overcome the talent disparity up front on both sides of the ball.
Posted on 12/27/25 at 10:00 am to TheTideMustRoll
Illinois: 2 yards rushing
Oregon: 81 yards rushing
Iowa: 92 yards rushing
Penn State: 118
OSU: 58
In other words in their competitive games only one team all season hit 100 yards rushing.
I could’ve taken this analysis much darker because some of their stats have been overwhelming. The question comes down to can we either win a 14-10 type battle or are they a bit of a fraud from having played garbage all season (potentially including Oregon who in an unpopular take is completely unproven this year IMO).
Oregon: 81 yards rushing
Iowa: 92 yards rushing
Penn State: 118
OSU: 58
In other words in their competitive games only one team all season hit 100 yards rushing.
I could’ve taken this analysis much darker because some of their stats have been overwhelming. The question comes down to can we either win a 14-10 type battle or are they a bit of a fraud from having played garbage all season (potentially including Oregon who in an unpopular take is completely unproven this year IMO).
This post was edited on 12/27/25 at 10:03 am
Posted on 12/27/25 at 10:02 am to tide06
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ROSE BOWL: Alabama will take on Indiana in this year's Rose Bowl Thursday (3p CT kickoff in Pasadena, CA). The sky will be cloudy, and the pattern continues to favor unsettled weather. We expect periods of rain during the game with temperatures rising from the upper 50s at kickoff to the low 60s by the final whistle.
This post was edited on 12/27/25 at 10:03 am
Posted on 12/27/25 at 10:19 am to bamarep
quote:
Is Indiana elite? They've played pretty damn good against OSU and Oregon
That’s basically my position: IU is clearly as good or better than those two teams.
So either none of them are really as good as we think they are or they’re all elite tier teams who just happened to pad stats against a B10 that was barely P4 level beyond that group.
I suspect it’s the latter.
Posted on 12/27/25 at 12:36 pm to tide06
I think they are a good well coached team, but I also think we can beat them.
Posted on 12/27/25 at 12:46 pm to CrimsonBoz
Yes, they are fundamentally very sound and fun to watch for an old school purist like me.
Posted on 12/27/25 at 12:46 pm to Sl0thstronautEsq
We've not done well in the rain in the past with DeBoer. I suspect that if the field conditions are sloppy then that benefits IU.
This post was edited on 12/27/25 at 12:47 pm
Posted on 12/27/25 at 1:24 pm to tide06
This IU team would lose 4 games playing an SEC schedule.
I won’t be convinced they’re anything special unless they whip our arse.
I’m not ready to crown them, yet.
I won’t be convinced they’re anything special unless they whip our arse.
I’m not ready to crown them, yet.
Posted on 12/27/25 at 2:26 pm to Chancellor
quote:
This IU team would lose 4 games playing an SEC schedule.
So they could beat OSU head up but you think they would lose 4 in our conference?
Lol okay.
Just hope our players haven't had any of this super Bamer kool-aid.
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