Alabama by the Numbers - OU Week

NOTES:
-Two borderline top 10 teams according to the models that based on everything we have in front of us are about to beat the hell out of each other with a CFP birth on the line
-By every objective measure this is the equivalent of a 1st round CFP game

OFFENSE:
-The computer really thinks we're slipping offensively. Went from a consensus top 5-10 offense post UGA to barely in the top 20.
-The reason for this is obvious and has been talked to death, but the running game is nonexistent (72nd in adj YPC, 89th in adj total rushing YPG).
-Against this OU defense there is absolutely no reason to expect we will get anything meaningful against them at all that way and even worse its impacting how teams scheme the passing game
-They're taking away the short and intermediate stuff and we've been extremely inefficient vertically. Either we fix the deep pass, find a way to run or someone is going to get us soon.
-Simpson who was in the 170s a few weeks ago from a rating standpoint is down to 159 (3rd in the SEC, way behind Sayin at 192) which is good but by no means good enough to win us championships given the state of the running game.
-The bright side is OU is in a much worse position offensively where they're improved from last year but still way back in the 40s overall
-Mateer has really struggled post injury at QB sitting at 130RTG / 7.4YPA / 64%
-The real story there is that he's way down at 8TD / 7 INTS and outside of his huge game at Neyland against TN has only put up 240 yards on the ground and 5 TDs which isnt enough to get them where they want to be
-Look for them to lean on him in the run game like they did at Neyland to generate first downs with 15+ carries

DEFENSE:
-I said Bama was borderline elite going into LSU, but theres a good argument to be made its the 2nd best unit in the SEC at this point sitting at 8th in adjusted scoring defense and only giving teams 68% of their season averages
-Passing defense is up to 17th in adj YPA and the rush D is still back in the low 70s so its a bend, dont break situation for sure but the results overall have been very good after the scheme changes that were made about halftime of the Vanderbilt game
-OU will be the best defense we play all season outside of the CFP and its not very close
-Overall adj scoring defense is 4th and the thing to understand is that they're only giving teams 47% of their average points allowed
-Even worse they're balanced sitting at #2 in adj rushing YPC and 7th in adj passing YPA

OVERALL
-Two of the models (FEI and Vegas) have this as a solid ten point margin for Bama but the CFN continue to see it as a tossup with us barely getting to 20
-If we play with the level of execution we did against LSU offensively I agree with the Nerds and I just cant see us winning throwing away 1st down runs
-To me there's no point trying to grind out drives, they're too good so the best chance is to look for chunk plays downfield like Heupel/Aguilar did against them in Neyland where they put up nearly 400 yards passing and 27 points despite three turnovers