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Bama by the Numbers - LSU Week
Posted on 11/5/25 at 9:16 am
Posted on 11/5/25 at 9:16 am
NOTES:
-We're slipping a bit. SP+ is starting to lineup with the college football nerds model that we're a borderline top 10ish team that is just winning close games.
-Whether that's just reflection of a beat up team coming off some really hard games being compared to teams that haven't played anyone we don't know because the B10 doesn't have enough data points in the non conference to compare against.
-LSU (and AU) are still top 25 teams per the model and unless they quit again like they did against A&M this should be a competitive game even if we have a clear edge based on the models
OFFENSE:
-LSU is horrific on offense. They're 88th in adjusted total yards, 90th in passing YPA and 83rd in rushing per carry. There isn't any bright spot here for them.
-Nuss has been straight up awful at QB (133 RTG (11th in the SEC), 7 YPA and a 12/5 TD to INT) and unless he comes back healthy or is benched I cant see how they move the ball consistently
-Meanwhile we're just basically whatever Ty and the receivers are capable of being on offense because the rushing game has cratered at 100th in adjusted YPC. We will have to improve there if we're going to make a serious run in the CFP.
DEFENSE:
-Both teams are really good but not quite elite
-LSU is 25th against the pass and 36th against the run relative to per attempt. Even if Weeks sit we probably aren't good enough on the ground to hurt them unless we figured something out on the bye but I don't think they shut us down based on the data either
-We have a problem with the rushing defense. Its slipped all the way to 90th in the nation (YPC) and while I'm not sure LSU has the OL to get us its a massive liability at this point that has to be fixed
-Passing defense is very good at 15th so that's kind of the rock we have to build on to make a run IMO
OVERALL
-Neither team seems to have the skill set to take advantage of the other sides weaknesses necessarily but there's a reason Bama is favored by 10 as that lines up perfectly with the computer model averages (29-19 Bama)
-I wouldn't touch this game from a betting standpoint as a result and because we just don't know if we're getting LSU from A&M that quit or the LSU team that the computers still say is top 25 and that fought Vandy to the end in Nashville and has some elite talent at key positions if they ever clicked
This post was edited on 11/5/25 at 9:54 am
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Posted on 11/5/25 at 9:45 am to tide06
quote:
LSU is horrific on offense. They're 88th in adjusted total yards, 90th in passing YPA and 83rd in rushing per carry. There isn't any bright spot here for them.
… and yet they’ll look like the KC Chiefs on Saturday and Nuss will look like prime Tom Brady.
Posted on 11/6/25 at 9:18 am to ghoast
i expect lsu to play their best game thus far, at the very least their most inspired. i have to hope that ckd continues to have good results after a bye week.
Posted on 11/6/25 at 10:17 am to ghoast
quote:
… and yet they’ll look like the KC Chiefs on Saturday and Nuss will look like prime Tom Brady.
Its possible, I mean they're basically USCe from a data perspective with better skill players.
My concern is that much like that game if they move the ball its really an indictment of our defense particularly on the ground because there is no way to pretend its not happening against a team that hasn't really had much success against anyone this year.
Posted on 11/6/25 at 3:10 pm to tide06
I understand the concern with LSU because it’s LSU and they have talented players and their backs are against the wall with nothing to lose.
But also let’s not forget the HC was fired the OC was let go and their best OL is out and numerous other players are banged up and I suspect morale is still somewhat low for the season is basically done.
The HC is a homegrown tiger but you know in the back of his mind and the rest of that coaching staff they going to be needing a job soon and more than likely reaching out to find the next paycheck
And you know a lot of these players are looking around also for their next paycheck because they’re not sure who the next HC will be and how they will be used to enhance their skills for the next level. Not to mention other colleges GM’s are in contact with these players knowing there’s blood in the water and have the No Mercy mentality to better their roster next yr
Sure Bama can lose this game and upsets happen every year, but Bama is the better team and Bama has been battle tested with the toughest five game gauntlet in college football and coming from behind and making the plays to win the game like a championship caliber team does when their not on their A game.
frick LSU. I more confident of Bama winning this game than worrying about them losing at home against a team that mailed it in against A&M like LSU did. Bama could have mailed it in after FSU, but they didn’t. Bama may look sloppy and shitty at times but one thing is a fact, this team has grit and the confidence to handle any team they play. I couldn’t say that after FSU but I believe this team now can beat any team they play.
But also let’s not forget the HC was fired the OC was let go and their best OL is out and numerous other players are banged up and I suspect morale is still somewhat low for the season is basically done.
The HC is a homegrown tiger but you know in the back of his mind and the rest of that coaching staff they going to be needing a job soon and more than likely reaching out to find the next paycheck
And you know a lot of these players are looking around also for their next paycheck because they’re not sure who the next HC will be and how they will be used to enhance their skills for the next level. Not to mention other colleges GM’s are in contact with these players knowing there’s blood in the water and have the No Mercy mentality to better their roster next yr
Sure Bama can lose this game and upsets happen every year, but Bama is the better team and Bama has been battle tested with the toughest five game gauntlet in college football and coming from behind and making the plays to win the game like a championship caliber team does when their not on their A game.
frick LSU. I more confident of Bama winning this game than worrying about them losing at home against a team that mailed it in against A&M like LSU did. Bama could have mailed it in after FSU, but they didn’t. Bama may look sloppy and shitty at times but one thing is a fact, this team has grit and the confidence to handle any team they play. I couldn’t say that after FSU but I believe this team now can beat any team they play.
Posted on 11/7/25 at 7:41 am to hwyman108
Bama doesn't need to let them hang around. We need to get up 10-14 points, preferably 14 so they'll get discouraged. If we let them hang around until the 4th it could become very difficult.
Posted on 11/7/25 at 3:05 pm to BFANLC
Posted on 11/7/25 at 3:52 pm to tide06
I think Bama has a good, not great team. Id put Georgia in that category as well. The lack of traditional running game keeps Bama from really putting the pedal down
Posted on 11/8/25 at 12:04 am to Sl0thstronautEsq
Someone posted a picture on X of Crazy Tony walking down The Strip with a damn bamboo stick!!!!
Posted on 11/8/25 at 3:10 am to UAgrad93
quote:
Someone posted a picture on X of Crazy Tony walking down The Strip with a damn bamboo stick!!!!
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