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Your one betting lock of the weekend

Posted on 8/25/25 at 12:09 pm
Posted by Violent Hip Swivel
Member since Aug 2023
7586 posts
Posted on 8/25/25 at 12:09 pm
There's no Betting board and some people on here get persnickety when there's a thread about betting, but if you feel that way then just don't click.

Georgia – -39.5
Marshall – +39.5

...I rarely bet on Georgia when they play a little debbie at home, but Marshall is something we've never seen before in college football. They have 73 new players and half their starters transferred to Southern Miss in the off-season with their new coach, including the quarterback.

This post was edited on 8/25/25 at 12:11 pm
Posted by Che Boludo
Member since May 2009
21566 posts
Posted on 8/25/25 at 12:15 pm to
Tough to cover 39.5. Not that UGA couldn't do it, but Smart isn't going to run the score up or risk injury to the 2 deep vs Marshall.

They go vanilla and get under classmen reps by the 2nd half if/when up 4 scores. Starters may take the opening drive of 2nd half in that situation and call it a day.

I like USF to cover vs Boise. They get an Idaho team at home in FL in Aug with a pretty good coach in the mad Russian. USF is sitting at +6.5
Posted by Violent Hip Swivel
Member since Aug 2023
7586 posts
Posted on 8/25/25 at 12:20 pm to
quote:

They go vanilla and get under classmen reps by the 2nd half if/when up 4 scores. Starters may take the opening drive of 2nd half in that situation and call it a day.




Kirby phased this out a few years ago. We keep throwing in the second half now and keep mashing the gas, even when the backups come in.

...I like your Boise bet too. Boise opened last season at Georgia Southern and probably would have lost if they didn't have Jeanty. Now they don't have Jeanty and have to play a better team in a similar situation.

This post was edited on 8/25/25 at 12:24 pm
Posted by Gman84
Member since Aug 2021
1002 posts
Posted on 8/25/25 at 12:36 pm to
quote:

Kirby phased this out a few years ago.


Dawgs have a lot to prove and need game experience, but when thrashing an undermanned team, we’ve seen Kirbs occasionally agree to a running clock.
Posted by Tubedog13
Member since May 2009
3625 posts
Posted on 8/25/25 at 12:36 pm to
Brian Kelly shitting the bed again is a lock
Posted by RiverBoatGamblerO
Member since Aug 2025
483 posts
Posted on 8/25/25 at 12:40 pm to
Too many points to spot.

Smart Money is on Brian Kelly and the fighting Tiggers choking in their season opener. It's free money at this point guys.
This post was edited on 8/25/25 at 12:41 pm
Posted by paperwasp
2x HRV 2025 Poster of the Year
Member since Sep 2014
28686 posts
Posted on 8/25/25 at 12:41 pm to
quote:

It's free money
quote:

RiverBoatGamblerO


Posted by Violent Hip Swivel
Member since Aug 2023
7586 posts
Posted on 8/25/25 at 12:52 pm to
quote:

Smart Money is on Brian Kelly and the fighting Tiggers choking in their season opener. It's free money at this point guys.


When there are 60 really random games early in the season, it's a bold move to choose one of the games that's most scrutinized and analyzed by the handicappers. Those are usually the ones you want to avoid betting on.
Posted by Violent Hip Swivel
Member since Aug 2023
7586 posts
Posted on 8/25/25 at 12:56 pm to
quote:

Dawgs have a lot to prove and need game experience, but when thrashing an undermanned team, we’ve seen Kirbs occasionally agree to a running clock.



Kept throwing against Tennessee Tech when Gunner came in the game last year. I think Kirby's gotten to the point where he knows he has to throw players a bone and keep players happy when he gets a chance in the portal era.

I see what you're saying though. There was that one game 3 or 4 years ago when Daijuan Edwards had something like 20 carries in the fourth quarter. I think those days are over, however.
Posted by dawgman34
Member since May 2021
15 posts
Posted on 8/25/25 at 12:56 pm to
Not sure if I like that one. I feel like we rarely cover against cupcakes, since we usually play pretty vanilla and are really just focused on getting 2nd and 3rd stringers reps against these teams
Posted by TideFaninFl
On the space coast
Member since Oct 2017
6802 posts
Posted on 8/25/25 at 1:01 pm to
The one thing I have learned is to NOT bet on my team. You will always believe that your team will win big.

If UGA gets up by 3 scores they will take their foot off the gas and let the 3rd string play by running the ball and eating clock. UGA will not embarrass a team that has 73 new players.
Posted by Bigdawgb
Member since Oct 2023
3197 posts
Posted on 8/25/25 at 1:14 pm to
quote:

Georgia – -39.5


Knowing Kirby I'd bet double for them to win 38-0
Posted by LSU Patrick
Member since Jan 2009
76614 posts
Posted on 8/25/25 at 1:15 pm to
Georgia won't cover
Posted by Texoticlifestyles531
Member since Jul 2025
971 posts
Posted on 8/25/25 at 1:16 pm to
Texas over Ohio St. straight up

QB advantage
Coach is equal
Defense advantage
Running Backs Advantage

Its possible they win by 20
Posted by Violent Hip Swivel
Member since Aug 2023
7586 posts
Posted on 8/25/25 at 1:29 pm to
quote:

Georgia won't cover


66-0
Posted by MrMojoRisin
Parts unknown
Member since May 2014
7904 posts
Posted on 8/25/25 at 1:35 pm to
Posted by JacieNY
Member since Jul 2024
1439 posts
Posted on 8/25/25 at 2:38 pm to
Might want to lay off betting the Dawgs (4-10 ATS last year) including this gem from Week 2 vs Tennessee Tech (+52), won by 45.
Posted by Gator Fever
Member since Sep 2021
4007 posts
Posted on 8/25/25 at 4:11 pm to
Utah -6 @UCLA

Utah's defense will rattle Nico bad and UCLA's offense will never really get going in this game.
Posted by Sonny Black
Member since Jul 2025
151 posts
Posted on 8/25/25 at 4:16 pm to
Brian Kelly winning the toss and taking the ball is my first lock.

Brian Kelly going for it on 4th down and 3 and not getting it instead of taking the field goal is my 2nd lock.

Brian Kelly banging the table at the post loss press conference is my 3rd lock.
Posted by Bigbro24
Los Angeles
Member since Sep 2023
984 posts
Posted on 8/25/25 at 4:58 pm to
quote:

Your one betting lock of the weeken


Alabama Crimson tide have covered the spread in ten straight week 1 openers ....
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