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KenPom - comparisons to tournament seeding

Posted on 3/17/25 at 1:51 pm
Posted by skrayper
21-0 Asterisk Drive
Member since Nov 2012
33201 posts
Posted on 3/17/25 at 1:51 pm
Some interesting tidbits:

Gonzaga (#9 in KenPom) has the biggest discrepancy between themselves and the teams around them in terms of tournament seed:

Above Gonzaga at #8 is #2 seed Michigan State
Below Gonzaga at #10 is #3 seed Iowa State

In the other direction is Memphis, who is a #5 seed, is 51st - between Vanderbilt (#49, a 10 seed), Boise State (50th, not in the field) and Utah State (52nd, a 10 seed)

The lowest ranked AQ is Saint Francis at 311th



SEC opening matchups by KenPom ranking:

#2 Florida vs #180 Norfolk State
#4 Auburn vs #273 Alabama St / #311 Saint Francis winner
#5 Tennessee vs #120 Wofford
#6 Alabama vs #139 Robert Morris

#15 Missouri vs #58 Drake
#16 Kentucky vs #98 Troy
#17 Texas A&M vs #73 Yale

#26 Ole Miss vs #46 SDS / #33 North Carolina

#32 Mississippi State vs #29 Baylor
#34 Georgia vs #9 Gonzaga
#38 Oklahoma vs #35 UConn
#40 Arkansas vs #21 Kansas

#44 Texas vs #43 Xavier (Play-in game)
#49 Vanderbilt vs #22 St. Mary's



Aside from the play-in game, the closest match-ups are Oklahoma vs UConn and Mississippi State vs Baylor (both teams within 3 of each other according to KenPom)
Posted by Murph4HOF
A-T-L-A-N-T-A (that's where I stay)
Member since Sep 2019
15437 posts
Posted on 3/17/25 at 6:27 pm to
I feel like KenPom isn't a good metric this year. I'm basing that just off my eye test and not comparing that to the other metrics.
Posted by GatorNation4Lyfe
Houston
Member since Oct 2008
7303 posts
Posted on 3/17/25 at 6:45 pm to
The last 18 of 20 title winners came from teams in the top 6 KenPom.

That means most likely your winner will be Duke, Houston, Auburn, UT, UF or Auburn
Posted by Murph4HOF
A-T-L-A-N-T-A (that's where I stay)
Member since Sep 2019
15437 posts
Posted on 3/17/25 at 6:51 pm to
This season though...

Would love to see what the Knit averages are and see what metric has the outliers from that average.
Posted by BurgTiger
Member since Feb 2014
3091 posts
Posted on 3/17/25 at 9:23 pm to
If that tall white freak from Duke is on they are impossible to beat.
Posted by Gator Fever
Member since Sep 2021
2561 posts
Posted on 3/18/25 at 3:31 pm to
Some metrics suggest if there is a non-#1 seed champion this year it will come from these teams:

Gonzaga, Texas Tech, Bama or TN
Posted by BoCam2
Alabama
Member since Apr 2012
4565 posts
Posted on 3/18/25 at 4:07 pm to
quote:

That means most likely your winner will be Duke, Houston, Auburn, UT, UF or Auburn


I'm digging Auburn’s chances here.
Posted by Murph4HOF
A-T-L-A-N-T-A (that's where I stay)
Member since Sep 2019
15437 posts
Posted on 3/18/25 at 4:15 pm to
quote:

Gonzaga, Texas Tech, Bama or TN
They may absolutely run UGA off the floor, but I'm not sold on Gonzaga.

I see 3 decent wins on their resume. KenPom may have them high but Wins Above Bubble and Strength of Record have them around 50.
Posted by Gator Fever
Member since Sep 2021
2561 posts
Posted on 3/18/25 at 6:13 pm to
Yep I could see GA beating Gonzaga.
Posted by GatorNation4Lyfe
Houston
Member since Oct 2008
7303 posts
Posted on 3/18/25 at 8:52 pm to
quote:

Gonzaga, Texas Tech, Bama or TN
Well UT and Bama are in the top 6 of zkenpom, so most likely…
Posted by diddlydawg7
2x Best Poster Elite 8 (2x Sweet 16
Member since Oct 2017
29549 posts
Posted on 3/18/25 at 8:53 pm to
quote:

The last 18 of 20 title winners came from teams in the top 6 KenPom.


Were they Top 6 before or after the tournament?
Posted by GatorNation4Lyfe
Houston
Member since Oct 2008
7303 posts
Posted on 3/20/25 at 9:26 am to
Top 6 prior to the tourney of course…
Posted by kywildcatfanone
Wildcat Country!
Member since Oct 2012
130278 posts
Posted on 3/20/25 at 9:27 am to
quote:

That means most likely your winner will be Duke, Houston, Auburn, UT, UF or Auburn


In fairness, that is everyone's metric you talk to.
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