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Is Alabama actually in a great spot?
Posted on 10/28/24 at 3:45 pm
Posted on 10/28/24 at 3:45 pm
Ok, hear me out; this is not saying we can get there, or that all the team's issues are fixed. But if you set all that to the side, and just look at the way things could play out over the final month of the season IF Alabama somehow won out, I think we're actually in a really good place, relative to the playoffs.
Where we are
Currently ranked 14th in the polls
The best win so far in the country
No truly bad losses (At this point, everyone pretty much agrees that Vandy is a giant killer)
Two tough, but winnable road games that would look great on the resumé come selection time
That's an ideal situation for a team trying to make it in. Here's a look at the teams ahead of us right now:
Playoff Locks (Teams that would still make it in with a loss)
Oregon
Georgia
Penn State
Miami
Tennessee
Contenders (Teams that can't afford to lose again)
Ohio State has maybe the toughest remaining schedule of the top 5. A trip to Happy Valley this weekend will be huge, but Indiana coming into town on Nov. 23rd is also a game to circle.
Texas doesn't have much room for error. Their win against Michigan isn't exactly holding up. Huge matchup to end the regular season with Texas A&M could be a playoff eliminator.
Clemson is in for now, but are on thin ice. That trip to Pittsburgh or the Palmetto Bowl could do it.
Notre Dame isn't good enough to make the playoff but if they win out, they'll be in.
Iowa State would only make it in with a loss as an automatic qualifier.
Texas A&M will need to win out to get in. South Carolina may eliminate them this weekend.
BYU is likely in the same boat as Iowa State. It's unlikely the Big 12 gets two teams in the playoff this year.
Indiana is an interesting team, but they really can't afford a loss and stay in, unless they follow it with a Big 10 championship.
Boise State is ranked behind us, but they're the most likely the 5th conference champion to make it in if they win out. Army, Navy, or Memphis could all get that spot if Boise slips.
There are other teams behind us in the rankings that could make it to the playoffs, but these are the teams that currently stand between us and making it. Looking at this, I feel like if Alabama wins out, they have a great chance of being in the top 8 at the beginning of December, which would give us a first round home game. The schedule ahead of Alabama isn't going to let a team jump us, while also not being the most difficult. They'll just need to take care of business.
Where we are
Currently ranked 14th in the polls
The best win so far in the country
No truly bad losses (At this point, everyone pretty much agrees that Vandy is a giant killer)
Two tough, but winnable road games that would look great on the resumé come selection time
That's an ideal situation for a team trying to make it in. Here's a look at the teams ahead of us right now:
Playoff Locks (Teams that would still make it in with a loss)
Oregon
Georgia
Penn State
Miami
Tennessee
Contenders (Teams that can't afford to lose again)
Ohio State has maybe the toughest remaining schedule of the top 5. A trip to Happy Valley this weekend will be huge, but Indiana coming into town on Nov. 23rd is also a game to circle.
Texas doesn't have much room for error. Their win against Michigan isn't exactly holding up. Huge matchup to end the regular season with Texas A&M could be a playoff eliminator.
Clemson is in for now, but are on thin ice. That trip to Pittsburgh or the Palmetto Bowl could do it.
Notre Dame isn't good enough to make the playoff but if they win out, they'll be in.
Iowa State would only make it in with a loss as an automatic qualifier.
Texas A&M will need to win out to get in. South Carolina may eliminate them this weekend.
BYU is likely in the same boat as Iowa State. It's unlikely the Big 12 gets two teams in the playoff this year.
Indiana is an interesting team, but they really can't afford a loss and stay in, unless they follow it with a Big 10 championship.
Boise State is ranked behind us, but they're the most likely the 5th conference champion to make it in if they win out. Army, Navy, or Memphis could all get that spot if Boise slips.
There are other teams behind us in the rankings that could make it to the playoffs, but these are the teams that currently stand between us and making it. Looking at this, I feel like if Alabama wins out, they have a great chance of being in the top 8 at the beginning of December, which would give us a first round home game. The schedule ahead of Alabama isn't going to let a team jump us, while also not being the most difficult. They'll just need to take care of business.
9
Posted on 10/28/24 at 3:58 pm to Goombaw
Alabama has 1 really tough game and 2 sneaky tough games left. If they win out, they will have earned an at-large bid honestly.
Oklahoma looked a good bit better on offense after firing their OC. We'll probably end up playing in a chilly Fall early kickoff with 30 mph winds in Norman.
Auburn is doing their typical thing where they aren't becoming great but they are finding out how to maximize what they are to be effective late in the season. They'll probably be as good as they've been all season when we play them which just seems like that is how it works out with them. Can't be so lucky to play a September Auburn team around these parts I guess.
So LSU is a tough one, yes, but Mercer is truly the only gimme.
Oklahoma looked a good bit better on offense after firing their OC. We'll probably end up playing in a chilly Fall early kickoff with 30 mph winds in Norman.
Auburn is doing their typical thing where they aren't becoming great but they are finding out how to maximize what they are to be effective late in the season. They'll probably be as good as they've been all season when we play them which just seems like that is how it works out with them. Can't be so lucky to play a September Auburn team around these parts I guess.
So LSU is a tough one, yes, but Mercer is truly the only gimme.
This post was edited on 10/28/24 at 4:01 pm
Posted on 10/28/24 at 3:58 pm to Goombaw
I predict a lot of chaos in front of us. Any team can get beat any game, in my expert message board opinion. I just hope it all happens in front and behind us and we somehow find a way to win the rest of them. I think that 5-6 seed is the place to be.
Posted on 10/28/24 at 4:10 pm to Goombaw
No, we're not in a "great" spot. We have a punchers chance because we already have two losses with several tough opponents left. We also do not know how many one loss teams there will be at season's end, which will make our path to the playoffs that much harder.
The Vandy game hurt, it may be the one that comes back and bites us in the end.
The Vandy game hurt, it may be the one that comes back and bites us in the end.
Posted on 10/28/24 at 4:33 pm to Diego Ricardo
quote:
Alabama has 1 really tough game and 2 sneaky tough games left. If they win out, they will have earned an at-large bid honestly.
Would not be surprised at all to se this squad win in Baton Rouge only to lose the next week in Norman.
Posted on 10/28/24 at 4:50 pm to TS1926
quote:
Would not be surprised at all to se this squad win in Baton Rouge only to lose the next week in Norman.
I’d be very surprised considering we play Mercer
Posted on 10/28/24 at 5:00 pm to Cskelt20
quote:
I’d be very surprised considering we play Merce
The week after.
Posted on 10/28/24 at 5:05 pm to Goombaw
I think if we win out we are in.
Several of the top teams have to play each other. So if you already have a loss another moves the needle. So we have fallen as far as we are going to having 2 losses. So if Texas loses to AM, Penn State loses to OSU, so on and so forth.
Several of the top teams have to play each other. So if you already have a loss another moves the needle. So we have fallen as far as we are going to having 2 losses. So if Texas loses to AM, Penn State loses to OSU, so on and so forth.
This post was edited on 10/28/24 at 5:09 pm
Posted on 10/28/24 at 5:07 pm to CrimsonBoz
Guess you are right but that Vandy loss may get us, sadly .
Posted on 10/28/24 at 5:09 pm to Bear88
It could. Maybe more of a stars aligning type thing. Vandy probably has another big win in their pocket. If they beat UT and or LSU. That loss is basically a wash.
Posted on 10/28/24 at 5:28 pm to CrimsonBoz
The Vandy loss is already seen differently as Vandy was ranked in the top 25 and Texas barely escaped them AFTER knowing they were a threat.
Vandy will shock another team and should have a winning record at the end of the season
We just have people who are too dumb to look at the team's value and performance... not just state at their name.
That is ironic because the players get accused of taking team's lightly fixating on the name instead of seeing the actual opponent
In the end if we win the rest of our games it would be hard to keep us out considering our schedule in the end will be one of the hardest in the country
Vandy will shock another team and should have a winning record at the end of the season
We just have people who are too dumb to look at the team's value and performance... not just state at their name.
That is ironic because the players get accused of taking team's lightly fixating on the name instead of seeing the actual opponent
In the end if we win the rest of our games it would be hard to keep us out considering our schedule in the end will be one of the hardest in the country
Posted on 10/28/24 at 5:59 pm to YStar
Yes, everybody knows if we win out we should be in. All I am saying is that the Vandy game, even though they are pretty good team, is a game you count on winning and should have . It would have given us another loss cushion had we won
Posted on 10/28/24 at 6:17 pm to Bear88
Does it really matter if we make the 12 team playoffs? Other than to say we made it, what then? This team isn't winning it. Probably wouldn't get a Home playoff game either. I just can't see us stringing that many good games in a row with this bunch to play and win a Natty.
Posted on 10/28/24 at 6:17 pm to Goombaw
Anything is possible but I believe LSU losing really hurt us going down the stretch.
Right now I do not see the SEC getting more than 3 teams in. ND who I do not think deserves it will get in if they win out. The top G5 team will get on leaving only 10 spots for everyone else.
The B10 looks to be in a position to get 3 in with Oregon, OSU, and PSU.
The ACC will get 2 in for sure maybe 3. Miami does not play Pitt or Clemson until the ACCCG. Pitt does go to SMU this weekend with a showdown looming with CU. If Pitt only loss is to CU who ends up with one of the better losses of the year to UGA I could see all 3 in the playoffs.
The B12 has both BYU and ISU on a collision course for the B12CG. Good chance depending on how they finished ranked both could get in but at least one will get in.
That leaves at most 3 for the SEC. UGA, Texas, a&m(maybe), and even a 2 loss Tennessee would go over us.
Right now we have to win out and hope somehow with a weak backend schedule a lot of chaos happens over the last few weeks that will get us at least top 10 if not top 8. Top 8 is where I believe we need to be to be in and LSU winning staying top 10 would have helped us.
Right now I do not see the SEC getting more than 3 teams in. ND who I do not think deserves it will get in if they win out. The top G5 team will get on leaving only 10 spots for everyone else.
The B10 looks to be in a position to get 3 in with Oregon, OSU, and PSU.
The ACC will get 2 in for sure maybe 3. Miami does not play Pitt or Clemson until the ACCCG. Pitt does go to SMU this weekend with a showdown looming with CU. If Pitt only loss is to CU who ends up with one of the better losses of the year to UGA I could see all 3 in the playoffs.
The B12 has both BYU and ISU on a collision course for the B12CG. Good chance depending on how they finished ranked both could get in but at least one will get in.
That leaves at most 3 for the SEC. UGA, Texas, a&m(maybe), and even a 2 loss Tennessee would go over us.
Right now we have to win out and hope somehow with a weak backend schedule a lot of chaos happens over the last few weeks that will get us at least top 10 if not top 8. Top 8 is where I believe we need to be to be in and LSU winning staying top 10 would have helped us.
Posted on 10/28/24 at 7:24 pm to PBD4BAMA
quote:
Does it really matter if we make the 12 team playoffs?
Well , it kinda does to me
I had much rather make it than not 
Posted on 10/28/24 at 8:44 pm to Goombaw
i dont think tennessee would still make it in with another loss. I think if we win out we will be somewhere at 10 when the playoff selection happens. The shine is off LSU big time.
Posted on 10/28/24 at 9:07 pm to TideWarrior
quote:
LSU losing really hurt us going down the stretch.
I think so.
Posted on 10/29/24 at 12:23 am to CrimsonBoz
If nothing else, I get to relax and not have a Christmas heart attack if Bama gets left out. Rebuild and dominate next year.
Posted on 10/29/24 at 12:34 am to narddogg81
Tennessee still has 2-3 possible losses. Kentucky, Miss St. (yes, even Miss St isn’t a pushover as Georgia and Texas have shown), and Vandy are capable of upsetting UT if Nico has a bad game. I think any 1-loss Big 12 team is out before a 2-loss SEC team. 7-1 Kansas St. isn’t even in the top 25, but Missouri is. The B1G will have at least two in. It’s looking like the SEC will have 3-4 in. We need SC to upset A&M this weekend for really good odds.
Posted on 10/29/24 at 5:49 am to RTRcdub
I won't comment on whether Bama is in a "great spot" or not, but being the conference champion is not necessarily the big playoff advantage that some make it out to be. It's almost as good a position to NOT even be in the SEC Championship Game and sill make the playoff. That way you get a "bye" week, just an earlier one than if that teams wins the game. The WORST position to be in is making it to the SECCG and losing, and still getting into the playoff. Then there's no bye week and you are still a beat-up team physically.
Food for thought. Just one of the examples of how this wonderful new model is severely flawed. In the NFL, being a wild card playoff team means that the teams don't get a bye week after the regular season ends, and have the "disadvantage" of playing an extra game that the top seeds don't have.
Food for thought. Just one of the examples of how this wonderful new model is severely flawed. In the NFL, being a wild card playoff team means that the teams don't get a bye week after the regular season ends, and have the "disadvantage" of playing an extra game that the top seeds don't have.
This post was edited on 10/29/24 at 6:09 am
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