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re: SEC Baseball Talk: Top 16 National Seeds & SEC Teams in NCAAt

Posted on 5/13/24 at 2:55 pm to
Posted by Farmer1906
The Woodlands, TX
Member since Apr 2009
50742 posts
Posted on 5/13/24 at 2:55 pm to
If A&M beats Arkansas head to head, finishes with a better overall record, has a better RPI, has more Q1 wins, & has fewer Q2 losses (neither have Q3 or 4 losses) they won't jump them? GTFO.
Posted by ColoradoAg
Colorado
Member since Sep 2011
22236 posts
Posted on 5/13/24 at 2:59 pm to
A&M has lost to three of the worst teams in the SEC this year. If they squeak by Arkansas, they won't pass them. If they lose to Arkansas, the argument can be made for UGA to pass them. Sorry, but A&M played their way into this spot, and now they have to play their way out of it.

A&M has to beat Arkansas this weekend for a T8 seed. Hopefully they can do so at home, but they haven't even played like a T16 seed or even a T32 this last few weeks. If I'm the committee and Arkansas wins next weekend, I place A&M at the nine seed as a message.
This post was edited on 5/13/24 at 3:01 pm
Posted by hawgsalot
Member since Nov 2011
846 posts
Posted on 5/13/24 at 3:02 pm to
quote:

UK one because they're going to win the SEC and have the #1 RPI.

If Arkansas wins this weekend, they get #2. If they lose then probably UT. A&M probably jumps Arkansas with a series win. Unsure if they'd jump UT.


Only chance you have jumping AR is a sweep and even then it's debatable. Talk about some maroon shades, dang. We win one we lock up the West and a top 4 seed, nothing you can do except maybe sneak in with a SEC Tourney sweep, but I bet you still don't break into the top 4.
Posted by Farmer1906
The Woodlands, TX
Member since Apr 2009
50742 posts
Posted on 5/13/24 at 3:06 pm to
Firstly, Auburn and Mizzou are the 2 worst teams in the SEC.

Secondly, all 3 series are Q1 games. There is a good chance 1 to 2 of them make regionals and an outside shot all 3 do.

Thirdly, you didn't address a single metric given.

You clearly run way too hot and cold and can't be unbiased when you're on an upper or downer. There is a chance A&M gets let out of the top 8 with a series loss and a chance A&M doesn't jump Arkansas with a series win. But both of those things are less likely scenario than A&M still making top 8 with a series loss (nonsweep) and jumping Arkansas with a series win (either kind). You seem to make these definitive statements that just aren't true and its not just baseball.
Posted by Farmer1906
The Woodlands, TX
Member since Apr 2009
50742 posts
Posted on 5/13/24 at 3:10 pm to
quote:

Only chance you have jumping AR is a sweep and even then it's debatable. Talk about some maroon shades, dang. We win one we lock up the West and a top 4 seed, nothing you can do except maybe sneak in with a SEC Tourney sweep, but I bet you still don't break into the top 4.



Humor me.

Team A
-Higher RPI
-More Q1 Wins
-Fewer Q2+Q3+Q4 losses
-Head to Head series win
-5 Q1 Series Wins
-Better Overall Record by 1 game

Team B
-Finished 1 game higher in the conference standings
-4 Q1 Series Wins

Why would Team B get ranked ahead fo Team A?
Posted by ColoradoAg
Colorado
Member since Sep 2011
22236 posts
Posted on 5/13/24 at 3:18 pm to
The fact is that A&M has honestly played less than inspiring baseball since the last game of UGA. LSU has a lot of talent, but A&M is the best win on their resume. Ole Miss is a hot mess and A&M lost to them as well. Don't forget this team lost to Florida as well. Yes, Mizzou and Auburn are the worst, but the other three are terrible. There is a small chance none of those teams make a regional.

A&M played great baseball up to the BR series. However, they lose to Arkansas and finish somewhere around fourth at the absolute best. Probably worse.

I've seen it too often when the committee says this team sucks down the stretch ... will A&M host? Yes, even if swept at home by Arkansas though it would be close. Tennessee, Arkansas and Kentucky will all finish in the T3 or T4 of the SEC. A&M was impressive in midweek games. However, I would have serious doubts about seeding them as a T8 at this point if they lose their last three series. UGA or A&M is the question for the last T8 (may actually only be three so that the committee can limit SEC possibilities for the CWS, and UGA is playing WAY better down the stretch.)

That is undisputable. A&M needs to do SOMETHING to show they didn't peak too early.
This post was edited on 5/13/24 at 3:20 pm
Posted by BigBro
Member since Jul 2021
8467 posts
Posted on 5/13/24 at 3:19 pm to
quote:

Why would Team B get ranked ahead fo Team A?

Arkansas NC SOS 46
Texas A&M NC SOS 128

That could matter I suppose.. but I see both teams as pretty equal.
Georgia probably deserves a Top 8 seed as well..

1 of A&M, Arkansas or Georgia will be left out if only 4 SEC teams get a spot

Arguing about it now is pointless.. play this weekend and then you can argue it..
Posted by ColoradoAg
Colorado
Member since Sep 2011
22236 posts
Posted on 5/13/24 at 3:22 pm to
I think the horn has it right. Lose to Arkansas at home, and you can swap UGA and A&M on his matchup list. Might be better for A&M to be honest.
Posted by BigBro
Member since Jul 2021
8467 posts
Posted on 5/13/24 at 3:22 pm to
another argument..

ELO
1. Arkansas
2. Tennessee
3. Georgia
4. North Carolina
5. Kentucky
6. Texas A&M

I think all 5 deserve national seeds.. I just don't know if they will give out 5.
Posted by ColoradoAg
Colorado
Member since Sep 2011
22236 posts
Posted on 5/13/24 at 3:23 pm to
They won't because they want to match up as many SEC teams as possible in the supers ... that is the way it has always been.
Posted by CBP3110
Member since Aug 2012
6599 posts
Posted on 5/13/24 at 3:26 pm to
Lololool you have Ole Miss hitting the road over LSU is comical
Posted by BigBro
Member since Jul 2021
8467 posts
Posted on 5/13/24 at 3:26 pm to
quote:

They won't because they want to match up as many SEC teams as possible in the supers ... that is the way it has always been.

They could give out 5 if they load one side of the WS bracket.

1

2
3
6
7

Not saying they will do that, but it is possible.
Posted by ColoradoAg
Colorado
Member since Sep 2011
22236 posts
Posted on 5/13/24 at 3:27 pm to
It is possible, but I have to ask has it ever happened before?
Posted by BigBro
Member since Jul 2021
8467 posts
Posted on 5/13/24 at 3:30 pm to
quote:


It is possible, but I have to ask has it ever happened before?

I don't think so.. but has there ever been 5 conference teams in the Top 6 RPI? I'm thinking probably not..
Posted by GeauxtigersMs36
The coast
Member since Jan 2018
8247 posts
Posted on 5/13/24 at 3:30 pm to
Think who wins that series gets that bid. Unless the other goes deep in the sec tournament and the other loses quickly
Posted by CGSC Lobotomy
Member since Sep 2011
80477 posts
Posted on 5/13/24 at 3:31 pm to
quote:

My Top 16 (without too much analysis)

1 Kentucky
16 Indiana State

2 Tennessee
15 Alabama

3 Clemson
14 South Carolina

4 Arkansas
13 Oklahoma State

5 Texas A&M
12 Wake Forest

6 Oklahoma
11 Florida State

7 North Carolina
10 Oregon State

8 Virginia
9 Georgia


The committee will do everything in their power to ensure that all SEC tournament teams are on the same side of the bracket. Just watch.
Posted by Farmer1906
The Woodlands, TX
Member since Apr 2009
50742 posts
Posted on 5/13/24 at 3:31 pm to
I think ELO is a solid metric, but I don't believe it's one the committee uses.

KPI is the new flavor of the week.
1. Kentucky 0.489
2. Texas A&M 0.478
3. Tennessee 0.474
4. Arkansas 0.450
5. Georgia 0.442
Posted by tylerdurden24
Member since Sep 2009
46600 posts
Posted on 5/13/24 at 3:33 pm to
quote:

If Florida loses the series this weekend, they have to win their first game in the SECT or they'd be ineligible for the NCAAT.

If they lose 2/3 this weekend, they’re out. They’d be 27-27 going into Hoover.
Win single elim, they’re 28-7 but then it’s double elim from there so unless they somehow make it through to the Finals, they’re going to end up with more losses than wins.
This post was edited on 5/13/24 at 3:34 pm
Posted by ColoradoAg
Colorado
Member since Sep 2011
22236 posts
Posted on 5/13/24 at 3:34 pm to
One of Arkansas, A&M, or UGA is likely to miss out on T8 status. UGA has the easiest weekend. They are currently one game back of A&M in the SEC standings.

Posted by BigBro
Member since Jul 2021
8467 posts
Posted on 5/13/24 at 3:38 pm to
The top 11 teams by KPI are all SEC or ACC.. I don't know what the committee will do, but if I was in charge.. I'd probably give out 5 to the SEC and 3 to ACC.

Oklahoma doesn't deserve a top 8 seed, but they may get one.

They are 3-6 vs WVU, Ok State & Texas (Top 4 Big 12)

They are 18-0 vs everyone else
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