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re: *2024 ARKANSAS RAZORBACK SEC BASEBALL SEASON THREAD*
Posted on 5/13/24 at 1:45 pm to Hawgeye
Posted on 5/13/24 at 1:45 pm to Hawgeye
OP has been updated
2024 Bottom Line
Record: 42-10
SEC Record: 19-8
SEC Series Record: 7-2
RPI: 4
ELO: 1
SOS: 17
Home Record: 33-3
Road Record: 6-6
Neutral Record 3-1
vs. RPI Group 1: 12-8
vs. RPI Group 2: 8-2
vs. RPI Group 3: 6-0
vs. RPI Group 4: 16-0
Team BA: .271
Team ERA: 3.46
Opponents BA: .211
Team HR's: 70
Field Pct.: .982
Errors: 32
The Top Hogs
Starters ERA: Smith (1.65), Tygart (3.86), Molina (4.44)
Overall ERA: Foutch (0.98), Hewlett (1.50), Smith (1.65) - min of 10 inning
K's: Smith (136), Molina (72), Tygart (68), McEntire (60), Gaeckle (45)
Batting Average: Stovall (.339), Holt (.325), Sprague-Lott (.313) - min 60 AB's
Homeruns: Aloy (11), Stovall (9), McLaughlin, Sprague-Lott, & Souza (7), Diggs (6)
RBI's: Aloy (50), Stovall (37), McLaughlin & Diggs (33), Souza (28)
Saves: Gaeckle (7), McEntire, Frank, & Hewlett (4)
SEC Standings
SEC WEST
1. Arkansas 19-8, 42-10
2. aTm 17-10, 42-10
3. Mississippi State 15-12, 33-18
4. Alabama 12-15, 32-19
5. Ole Miss 11-16, 27-24
6. LSU 10-17, 33-20
7. Auburn 6-21, 25-25
SEC EAST
1. Kentucky 20-7, 37-11
2. Tennessee 19-8, 42-10
3. Georgia 16-11, 38-12
4. South Carolina 13-14, 33-18
5. Vanderbilt 12-15, 34-18
6. Florida 11-16, 26-25
7. Missouri 8-19, 22-30
^ - Division Champion
* - Overall Conference Champion
$ - Conference Tournament Champion
SEC Tournament Seeding
1. Kentucky (East Leader)
2. Arkansas (West Leader)
3. Tennessee
4. aTm
5. Georgia
6. Mississippi State
7. South Carolina
8. Alabama/Vandy
9. Alabama/Vandy
10. Florida
11. Ole Miss
12. LSU
OUT - Missouri (2 games back)
OUT - Auburn (TOAST)
2024 Bottom Line
Record: 42-10
SEC Record: 19-8
SEC Series Record: 7-2
RPI: 4
ELO: 1
SOS: 17
Home Record: 33-3
Road Record: 6-6
Neutral Record 3-1
vs. RPI Group 1: 12-8
vs. RPI Group 2: 8-2
vs. RPI Group 3: 6-0
vs. RPI Group 4: 16-0
Team BA: .271
Team ERA: 3.46
Opponents BA: .211
Team HR's: 70
Field Pct.: .982
Errors: 32
The Top Hogs
Starters ERA: Smith (1.65), Tygart (3.86), Molina (4.44)
Overall ERA: Foutch (0.98), Hewlett (1.50), Smith (1.65) - min of 10 inning
K's: Smith (136), Molina (72), Tygart (68), McEntire (60), Gaeckle (45)
Batting Average: Stovall (.339), Holt (.325), Sprague-Lott (.313) - min 60 AB's
Homeruns: Aloy (11), Stovall (9), McLaughlin, Sprague-Lott, & Souza (7), Diggs (6)
RBI's: Aloy (50), Stovall (37), McLaughlin & Diggs (33), Souza (28)
Saves: Gaeckle (7), McEntire, Frank, & Hewlett (4)
SEC Standings
SEC WEST
1. Arkansas 19-8, 42-10
2. aTm 17-10, 42-10
3. Mississippi State 15-12, 33-18
4. Alabama 12-15, 32-19
5. Ole Miss 11-16, 27-24
6. LSU 10-17, 33-20
7. Auburn 6-21, 25-25
SEC EAST
1. Kentucky 20-7, 37-11
2. Tennessee 19-8, 42-10
3. Georgia 16-11, 38-12
4. South Carolina 13-14, 33-18
5. Vanderbilt 12-15, 34-18
6. Florida 11-16, 26-25
7. Missouri 8-19, 22-30
^ - Division Champion
* - Overall Conference Champion
$ - Conference Tournament Champion
SEC Tournament Seeding
1. Kentucky (East Leader)
2. Arkansas (West Leader)
3. Tennessee
4. aTm
5. Georgia
6. Mississippi State
7. South Carolina
8. Alabama/Vandy
9. Alabama/Vandy
10. Florida
11. Ole Miss
12. LSU
OUT - Missouri (2 games back)
OUT - Auburn (TOAST)
1
Posted on 5/14/24 at 11:22 am to Hawgeye
A pretty good and interesting final weekend of the SEC slate is coming up. Should be interesting to follow. Some items below to keep an eye on.
- Arkansas @ aTm: Arkansas leads the West by 2 games. 1 win in College Station will secure the Razorbacks at least the #2 seed in the SEC Tourney and also secure the Hogs their 5th division title in the last 6 full seasons.
- Vanderbilt @ Kentucky: This one is spicy because of the league and NCAAt implications. Kentucky is a game ahead of both Arkansas and Tennessee in the overall SEC standings. Vanderbilt needs to win this series to make the NCAAt. Vandy is 6-14 vs. Q1 teams this season and sits at 12-15 in SEC play.
- South Carolina @ Tennessee: Similar to above, South Carolina finds themselves in a tight situation. Sitting at 13-14 in the league, the Cocks need to avoid the sweep. Meanwhile, Tennessee hopes to sweep to keep pace with Kentucky or win the outright SEC title.
- Alabama @ Auburn: Another 12 win league team fighting for it's NCAAt lives. Alabama should win this series, but weirder things have happened. Auburn can secure the leagues worst mark this season with a series loss. Auburn ranked in the top 15 in early season polls.
- Missouri @ Mississippi State: Missouri is likely to miss the SECt. Missouri needs a sweep of State to secure an SECt spot. State is trying to secure a regional host spot. The Bulldogs are fighting a rough RPI. Missouri will hurt their RPI and projections put their RPI at #21 after the series.
- Ole Miss @ LSU - This may be the best one of the weekend. LSU is likely out of the NCAAt without sweeping this series. Their RPI is too low and their SEC win total sits at 10. This would extend the streak of SEC defending national champions missing the NCAAt the following year to 3 years. Ole Miss on the other hand sits at 11 SEC wins. Winning this series will put them at 13-17 in league play with a very strong RPI and the nations #1 SOS. Ole Miss currently has a 12-17 Q1 record, which is tied for 3rd most wins in the league against Q1 teams.
Hawgeye's Top 8 Seed Locks
Kentucky
Bad Losses: Kennesaw State (1-2 series loss)
SEC Series Record: 7-2
Why a lock: The #1 RPI team in nation. Series losses in SEC were to top 20 RPI teams (#6 Tenn & @ #19 SCar)
Tennessee
Bad Losses: Lipscomb (0-1 midweek loss)
SEC Series Record: 8-1
Why a lock: Strong #6 RPI and only 1 SEC series loss (on the road @ #11 RPI team). 19 Q1 & Q2 wins
Arkansas
Bad Losses: None
SEC Series Record: 7-2
Why a lock: Strong #4 RPI. Non Con SOS is #46. No Q3 or Q4 losses. 2 series losses were @ RPI #11 and @ RPI #1. 20 Q1 & Q2 wins
Top 8 Seed Potential w/series Win this Weekend
aTm
Bad Losses: @ Ole Miss (1-2), @ LSU (1-2), @ Florida (1-2)
SEC Series: 6-3
Why not a lock: aTm has lost its last two series and lost three series to teams who may not make the NCAAt field. Aggies are a shoe in to host, but need to win the series against Arkansas to lock in a top 8 national seed.
Georgia
Bad Losses: Missouri (2-1), Michigan State (0-1)
SEC Series: 6-3
Why not a lock: Bulldogs are really coming on late. I have them in my own top 8 and we will see where projections have them this week. Dogs have a strong RPI and SOS. Perception has had them on outside looking in. Cheating video did not help things either at aTm.
SEC Regional Host Contenders
Mississippi State
What happens: Lock up a host spot with series win over Missouri this weekend.
The Rest on the Road
South Carolina
Alabama
Ole Miss
Outside Looking In
Vanderbilt - lose series this weekend and are out. Very weak resume.
LSU - Tigers will likely not sweep Ole Miss
- Arkansas @ aTm: Arkansas leads the West by 2 games. 1 win in College Station will secure the Razorbacks at least the #2 seed in the SEC Tourney and also secure the Hogs their 5th division title in the last 6 full seasons.
- Vanderbilt @ Kentucky: This one is spicy because of the league and NCAAt implications. Kentucky is a game ahead of both Arkansas and Tennessee in the overall SEC standings. Vanderbilt needs to win this series to make the NCAAt. Vandy is 6-14 vs. Q1 teams this season and sits at 12-15 in SEC play.
- South Carolina @ Tennessee: Similar to above, South Carolina finds themselves in a tight situation. Sitting at 13-14 in the league, the Cocks need to avoid the sweep. Meanwhile, Tennessee hopes to sweep to keep pace with Kentucky or win the outright SEC title.
- Alabama @ Auburn: Another 12 win league team fighting for it's NCAAt lives. Alabama should win this series, but weirder things have happened. Auburn can secure the leagues worst mark this season with a series loss. Auburn ranked in the top 15 in early season polls.
- Missouri @ Mississippi State: Missouri is likely to miss the SECt. Missouri needs a sweep of State to secure an SECt spot. State is trying to secure a regional host spot. The Bulldogs are fighting a rough RPI. Missouri will hurt their RPI and projections put their RPI at #21 after the series.
- Ole Miss @ LSU - This may be the best one of the weekend. LSU is likely out of the NCAAt without sweeping this series. Their RPI is too low and their SEC win total sits at 10. This would extend the streak of SEC defending national champions missing the NCAAt the following year to 3 years. Ole Miss on the other hand sits at 11 SEC wins. Winning this series will put them at 13-17 in league play with a very strong RPI and the nations #1 SOS. Ole Miss currently has a 12-17 Q1 record, which is tied for 3rd most wins in the league against Q1 teams.
Hawgeye's Top 8 Seed Locks
Kentucky
Bad Losses: Kennesaw State (1-2 series loss)
SEC Series Record: 7-2
Why a lock: The #1 RPI team in nation. Series losses in SEC were to top 20 RPI teams (#6 Tenn & @ #19 SCar)
Tennessee
Bad Losses: Lipscomb (0-1 midweek loss)
SEC Series Record: 8-1
Why a lock: Strong #6 RPI and only 1 SEC series loss (on the road @ #11 RPI team). 19 Q1 & Q2 wins
Arkansas
Bad Losses: None
SEC Series Record: 7-2
Why a lock: Strong #4 RPI. Non Con SOS is #46. No Q3 or Q4 losses. 2 series losses were @ RPI #11 and @ RPI #1. 20 Q1 & Q2 wins
Top 8 Seed Potential w/series Win this Weekend
aTm
Bad Losses: @ Ole Miss (1-2), @ LSU (1-2), @ Florida (1-2)
SEC Series: 6-3
Why not a lock: aTm has lost its last two series and lost three series to teams who may not make the NCAAt field. Aggies are a shoe in to host, but need to win the series against Arkansas to lock in a top 8 national seed.
Georgia
Bad Losses: Missouri (2-1), Michigan State (0-1)
SEC Series: 6-3
Why not a lock: Bulldogs are really coming on late. I have them in my own top 8 and we will see where projections have them this week. Dogs have a strong RPI and SOS. Perception has had them on outside looking in. Cheating video did not help things either at aTm.
SEC Regional Host Contenders
Mississippi State
What happens: Lock up a host spot with series win over Missouri this weekend.
The Rest on the Road
South Carolina
Alabama
Ole Miss
Outside Looking In
Vanderbilt - lose series this weekend and are out. Very weak resume.
LSU - Tigers will likely not sweep Ole Miss
This post was edited on 5/14/24 at 11:31 am
Posted on 5/14/24 at 12:51 pm to Hawgeye
Thanks for the write up Hawgeye 
Looking forward to a fun weekend of baseball.
Looking forward to a fun weekend of baseball.
Posted on 5/14/24 at 1:42 pm to Hawgeye
A top notch write up sir.
Posted on 5/14/24 at 2:07 pm to Hawgeye
Good stuff Hawgeye
Posted on 5/15/24 at 9:23 am to Hawgeye
On3 put out their NCAAt projections yesterday...they are....
1. Kentucky Regional vs. 16. USCB Regional
2. Arkansas Regional vs. 15. Virginia Regional
3. North Carolina Regional vs. 14. Miss State Regional
4. Tennessee Regional vs. 13. East Carolina Regional
5. aTm Regional vs. 12. Oklahoma Regional
6. Clemson Regional vs. 11. Indiana State Regional
7. Georgia Regional vs. 10. Florida State Regional
8. Wake Forest Regional vs. 9. Oregon State Regional
Id expect the new D1 projections and BA projections to be out today. IMO no way Tennessee should be below North Carolina. Georgia and aTm look about right for now.
SEC Teams on the Road
2. South Carolina @ Virginia Regional
2. Alabama @ Clemson Regional
3. Vanderbilt @ UCSB Regional
So they do not have Ole Miss in the field...which I think they will be after winning the series in Baton Rouge this weekend.
1. Kentucky Regional vs. 16. USCB Regional
2. Arkansas Regional vs. 15. Virginia Regional
3. North Carolina Regional vs. 14. Miss State Regional
4. Tennessee Regional vs. 13. East Carolina Regional
5. aTm Regional vs. 12. Oklahoma Regional
6. Clemson Regional vs. 11. Indiana State Regional
7. Georgia Regional vs. 10. Florida State Regional
8. Wake Forest Regional vs. 9. Oregon State Regional
Id expect the new D1 projections and BA projections to be out today. IMO no way Tennessee should be below North Carolina. Georgia and aTm look about right for now.
SEC Teams on the Road
2. South Carolina @ Virginia Regional
2. Alabama @ Clemson Regional
3. Vanderbilt @ UCSB Regional
So they do not have Ole Miss in the field...which I think they will be after winning the series in Baton Rouge this weekend.
This post was edited on 5/15/24 at 9:49 am
Posted on 5/15/24 at 9:36 am to Hawgeye
Just want to avoid the top overall seed and whatever hot hitting Big 12 team, but I will say Nick Mingione has done a fantastic job at UK.
Posted on 5/15/24 at 10:04 am to Pygthagorean Theorem
Looks like Aaron Fitt sticking with the Hogs as his National Champion pick. This is from the D1 Weekly Chat:
quote:
Hog Fan: Other than Hagen Smith, Arkansas’s starting pitching has fallen off a cliff the past two weeks, with the main understudies either injured (Fisher) or ineffective (Bybee). Combined with weak-to-mediocre hitting, is this team doomed in the postseason?
Aaron Fitt: I’d be lying if I said I wasn’t a little bit concerned, considering the reason I have stubbornly clung to Arkansas as my national title pick is because I believed so much in the Smith-Tygart-Molina trio as being a major tier above everybody else’s starting pitching. But I’m going to remain stubborn. There’s too much talent (and experience) with that group, and they’ve got a couple more weeks to get it sorted. I’m keeping the faith.
Posted on 5/15/24 at 11:36 am to Pygthagorean Theorem
quote:
But I’m going to remain stubborn.
quote:
I’m keeping the faith.
Dude must be a lifelong Hog fan.
Posted on 5/15/24 at 12:05 pm to Hawgeye
Posted on 5/15/24 at 12:12 pm to HogX
The next question is are tygart and molina sitting for the weekend or are they expected to be used out of the pen.
Posted on 5/15/24 at 12:28 pm to cubsfan5150
Don't know but I'm glad we're shaking it up. Those guys need a reset
Posted on 5/15/24 at 12:58 pm to cubsfan5150
Pretty sure Tygart will be first out of the pen when Wood implodes after 3 innings
Posted on 5/15/24 at 3:29 pm to ArHog
Maybe or we might just sell out to win game one then pack it in.
Posted on 5/15/24 at 3:31 pm to Poker_hog
quote:
Maybe or we might just sell out to win game one then pack it in.
This is what I would if I were DVH. Let Molina and Tygart rest as much as possible and then have them throw a few innings in the SECT so they can be fresh for Regionals.
Posted on 5/15/24 at 3:47 pm to Poker_hog
quote:
Maybe or we might just sell out to win game one then pack it in.
Assuming we win game one, I would agree.
Posted on 5/15/24 at 4:40 pm to Hawgeye
D1 Projections
1. Kentucky Regional vs. 16. Oklahoma State Regional
2. Tennessee Regional vs. 15. Virginia Regional
3. Arkansas Regional vs. 14. Mississippi State Regional
4. aTm Regional vs. 13. Oregon State Regional
5. North Carolina Regional vs. 12. East Carolina Regional
6. Clemson Regional vs. 11. Indiana State Regional
7. Georgia Regional vs. 10. Oklahoma Regional
8. Wake Forest Regional vs. 9. Florida State Regional
SEC Teams on the Road
2. South Carolina @ Clemson Regional
2. Alabama @ North Carolina Regional
3. Vanderbilt @ Wake Forest
On3 projections.
1. Kentucky Regional vs. 16. USCB Regional
2. Arkansas Regional vs. 15. Virginia Regional
3. North Carolina Regional vs. 14. Miss State Regional
4. Tennessee Regional vs. 13. East Carolina Regional
5. aTm Regional vs. 12. Oklahoma Regional
6. Clemson Regional vs. 11. Indiana State Regional
7. Georgia Regional vs. 10. Florida State Regional
8. Wake Forest Regional vs. 9. Oregon State Regional
SEC Teams on the Road
2. South Carolina @ Virginia Regional
2. Alabama @ Clemson Regional
3. Vanderbilt @ UCSB Regional
First Four Out: Ole Miss
Next Four Out: Florida, LSU
Baseball America Projections
1. Kentucky vs. 16. UCSB
2. North Carolina vs. 15. Oklahoma State
3. Tennessee vs. 14. Virginia
4. aTm vs. 13. Oregon State
5. Arkansas vs. 12. Indiana State
6. Clemson vs. 11. East Carolina
7. Florida State vs. 10. Georgia
8. Oklahoma vs. 9. Wake Forest
SEC Teams on the Road
2. Alabama @ FSU Regional
2. Miss State @ Oklahoma State Regional
3. Vandy @ Virginia Regional
3. South Carolina @ UCSB Regional
BA always seems to be lazy. State not hosting and Oklahoma State is? Georgia a 10 seed but Clemson a 6?
1. Kentucky Regional vs. 16. Oklahoma State Regional
2. Tennessee Regional vs. 15. Virginia Regional
3. Arkansas Regional vs. 14. Mississippi State Regional
4. aTm Regional vs. 13. Oregon State Regional
5. North Carolina Regional vs. 12. East Carolina Regional
6. Clemson Regional vs. 11. Indiana State Regional
7. Georgia Regional vs. 10. Oklahoma Regional
8. Wake Forest Regional vs. 9. Florida State Regional
SEC Teams on the Road
2. South Carolina @ Clemson Regional
2. Alabama @ North Carolina Regional
3. Vanderbilt @ Wake Forest
On3 projections.
1. Kentucky Regional vs. 16. USCB Regional
2. Arkansas Regional vs. 15. Virginia Regional
3. North Carolina Regional vs. 14. Miss State Regional
4. Tennessee Regional vs. 13. East Carolina Regional
5. aTm Regional vs. 12. Oklahoma Regional
6. Clemson Regional vs. 11. Indiana State Regional
7. Georgia Regional vs. 10. Florida State Regional
8. Wake Forest Regional vs. 9. Oregon State Regional
SEC Teams on the Road
2. South Carolina @ Virginia Regional
2. Alabama @ Clemson Regional
3. Vanderbilt @ UCSB Regional
First Four Out: Ole Miss
Next Four Out: Florida, LSU
Baseball America Projections
1. Kentucky vs. 16. UCSB
2. North Carolina vs. 15. Oklahoma State
3. Tennessee vs. 14. Virginia
4. aTm vs. 13. Oregon State
5. Arkansas vs. 12. Indiana State
6. Clemson vs. 11. East Carolina
7. Florida State vs. 10. Georgia
8. Oklahoma vs. 9. Wake Forest
SEC Teams on the Road
2. Alabama @ FSU Regional
2. Miss State @ Oklahoma State Regional
3. Vandy @ Virginia Regional
3. South Carolina @ UCSB Regional
BA always seems to be lazy. State not hosting and Oklahoma State is? Georgia a 10 seed but Clemson a 6?
This post was edited on 5/15/24 at 4:41 pm
Posted on 5/15/24 at 5:11 pm to Hawgeye
Loading Twitter/X Embed...
If tweet fails to load, click here. That’s like, the most beautiful video ever.
Posted on 5/15/24 at 5:17 pm to Hawgeye
State back on the hill, I'm here for it
Posted on 5/15/24 at 5:34 pm to Hawgeye
quote:
BA always seems to be lazy. State not hosting and Oklahoma State is? Georgia a 10 seed but Clemson a 6?
Both of those predictions feel like they were written 2 months ago and lazily carried forward.
Georgia’s one of the hottest teams in the country and has an RPI of 3. Having them on the road is asinine.
Same for State. They’re sitting at 15 wins in the SEC right now and finish with Mizzou this weekend, so they’ll likely finish at 17-13 or 18-12 in conference.
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