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Old School Prediction Model : Alabama vs LSU (preliminary)
Posted on 10/23/23 at 2:30 pm
Posted on 10/23/23 at 2:30 pm
More stats from secondary games will change this a little after this weekend, but here is the early version based on games to date. Only based on games vs P5 opponents (and their P5 opponents).
Alabama Offense
- Passing YPA (10.46) is 126% of opponents averages allowed (7.40)
- Rushing YPA (3.30) is 91% of opponents averages allowed (3.63)
- Alabama averages 0.0785 pts per yard, 120% of opponents pts per yard allowed (0.0655)
Alabama Defense
- Passing YPA Allowed (7.13) is 91% of opponents average (7.85)
- Rushing YPA Allowed (2.93) is 67% of opponents average (4.37)
- Alabama averages 0.0617 pts per yard allowed, 86% of opponents pts per yard allowed (0.0716).
LSU Offense
- Passing YPA (10.63) is 149% of opponents averages allowed (7.14)
- Rushing YPA (5.61) is 147% of opponents averages allowed (3.82)
- LSU averages 0.0758 pts per yard, 116% of opponents pts per yard allowed (0.0652)
LSU Defense
- Passing YPA Allowed (8.34) is 111% of opponents average (7.48)
- Rushing YPA Allowed (4.79) is 125% of opponents average (3.82)
- LSU averages 0.0763 pts per yard allowed, 101% of opponents pts per yard allowed (0.0752)
PREDICTION
Alabama - 40
LSU - 35
Alabama
- 463 total yards on 65 plays (7.12 YPP)
- 293 pass yards on 25 throws (11.72 YPA)
- 170 rush yards on 40 rushes (4.24 YPA)
LSU
- 457 total yards on 68 plays (6.72 YPP)
- 304 pass yards on 30 throws (10.13 YPA)
- 153 rush yards on 38 rushes (4.03 YPA)
Alabama Offense
- Passing YPA (10.46) is 126% of opponents averages allowed (7.40)
- Rushing YPA (3.30) is 91% of opponents averages allowed (3.63)
- Alabama averages 0.0785 pts per yard, 120% of opponents pts per yard allowed (0.0655)
Alabama Defense
- Passing YPA Allowed (7.13) is 91% of opponents average (7.85)
- Rushing YPA Allowed (2.93) is 67% of opponents average (4.37)
- Alabama averages 0.0617 pts per yard allowed, 86% of opponents pts per yard allowed (0.0716).
LSU Offense
- Passing YPA (10.63) is 149% of opponents averages allowed (7.14)
- Rushing YPA (5.61) is 147% of opponents averages allowed (3.82)
- LSU averages 0.0758 pts per yard, 116% of opponents pts per yard allowed (0.0652)
LSU Defense
- Passing YPA Allowed (8.34) is 111% of opponents average (7.48)
- Rushing YPA Allowed (4.79) is 125% of opponents average (3.82)
- LSU averages 0.0763 pts per yard allowed, 101% of opponents pts per yard allowed (0.0752)
PREDICTION
Alabama - 40
LSU - 35
Alabama
- 463 total yards on 65 plays (7.12 YPP)
- 293 pass yards on 25 throws (11.72 YPA)
- 170 rush yards on 40 rushes (4.24 YPA)
LSU
- 457 total yards on 68 plays (6.72 YPP)
- 304 pass yards on 30 throws (10.13 YPA)
- 153 rush yards on 38 rushes (4.03 YPA)
This post was edited on 10/23/23 at 2:32 pm
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Posted on 10/23/23 at 2:44 pm to SummerOfGeorge
Just for reference points on LSU's defense.......Alabama Offense vs defenses by FEI Rank (throwing out USF for obvious reasons)
#8 Texas : 362 yards, 5.84 YPP, 24 pts
#11 Texas A&M : 344 yards, 5.83 YPP, 24 pts
#13 Tennessee : 358 yards, 5.68 YPP, 27 pts
#32 Arkansas : 415 yards, 6.59 YPP, 24 pts
#37 Ole Miss : 356 yards, 5.39 YPP, 24 pts
#44 Mississippi State : 357 yards, 6.38 YPP, 33 pts
#116 MTSU : 431 yards, 6.73 YPP, 56 pts
LSU is #62 - so the worst P5 defense we will have played to date and the #2 overall worst defense.
#8 Texas : 362 yards, 5.84 YPP, 24 pts
#11 Texas A&M : 344 yards, 5.83 YPP, 24 pts
#13 Tennessee : 358 yards, 5.68 YPP, 27 pts
#32 Arkansas : 415 yards, 6.59 YPP, 24 pts
#37 Ole Miss : 356 yards, 5.39 YPP, 24 pts
#44 Mississippi State : 357 yards, 6.38 YPP, 33 pts
#116 MTSU : 431 yards, 6.73 YPP, 56 pts
LSU is #62 - so the worst P5 defense we will have played to date and the #2 overall worst defense.
Posted on 10/23/23 at 2:47 pm to SummerOfGeorge
If the offense has to score 40 I don’t like our chances.
Posted on 10/23/23 at 2:51 pm to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
PREDICTION Alabama - 40 LSU - 35
Hold on to your butts, again.
Posted on 10/23/23 at 2:52 pm to Roll Tide Ravens
quote:
Hold on to your butts, again.
Yup
Posted on 10/23/23 at 2:52 pm to SummerOfGeorge
Where would the Bama defense rank amongst the defenses LSU has faced?
Posted on 10/23/23 at 2:56 pm to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
Alabama - 40
LSU - 35
To be honest, scoring that much would be absolutely cathartic
Posted on 10/23/23 at 2:56 pm to Roll Tide Ravens
quote:
Where would the Bama defense rank amongst the defenses LSU has faced?
Best one
#4 Alabama
#9 Florida State (459 yards, 7.17 YPP, 24 pts)
#15 Auburn (563 yards, 8.53 YPP, 48 pts)
#25 Missouri (533 yards, 8.08 YPP, 49 pts)
#32 Arkansas (509 yards, 8.78 YPP, 34 pts)
#37 Ole Miss (637 yards, 8.49 YPP, 49 pts)
#44 Mississippi State (530 yards, 6.97 YPP, 41 pts)
#90 Army (569 yards, 9.48 YPP, 62 pts)
Posted on 10/23/23 at 2:56 pm to Roll Tide Ravens
quote:
Where would the Bama defense rank amongst the defenses LSU has faced?
Pretty sure Arkansas(37) is the highest ranked defense in total defense that they've faced. Then Missouri(41), FSU(51), Miss St(62), AU(67), and Ole Miss(69).
This post was edited on 10/23/23 at 2:58 pm
Posted on 10/23/23 at 2:58 pm to SummerOfGeorge
If Alabama wins this game based on a penalty against LSU the servers of this site will explode.
Posted on 10/23/23 at 2:59 pm to SummerOfGeorge
We are the 4th best offense they've played
#12 Florida State (494 yards, 7.48 YPP, 45 pts)
#15 Ole Miss (706 yards, 8.02 YPP, 55 pts)
#25 Missouri (527 yards, 7.75 YPP, 39 pts)
#27 Alabama
#63 Mississippi State (201 yards, 4.02 YPP, 14 pts)
#87 Auburn (293 yards, 4.80 YPP, 18 pts)
#89 Arkansas (426 yards, 6.26 YPP, 31 pts)
#112 Army (193 yards, 3.33 YPP, 0 pts)
#12 Florida State (494 yards, 7.48 YPP, 45 pts)
#15 Ole Miss (706 yards, 8.02 YPP, 55 pts)
#25 Missouri (527 yards, 7.75 YPP, 39 pts)
#27 Alabama
#63 Mississippi State (201 yards, 4.02 YPP, 14 pts)
#87 Auburn (293 yards, 4.80 YPP, 18 pts)
#89 Arkansas (426 yards, 6.26 YPP, 31 pts)
#112 Army (193 yards, 3.33 YPP, 0 pts)
Posted on 10/23/23 at 3:00 pm to SummerOfGeorge
Realistically I think we need to get to 34/35 to win. The offense *might* be capable of getting there on its own against this horrible defense. It may take a NOT or a non-offensive play that wins easy field position for a short drive.
Posted on 10/23/23 at 3:01 pm to Crimson77
quote:
Realistically I think we need to get to 34/35 to win. The offense *might* be capable of getting there on its own against this horrible defense. It may take a NOT or a non-offensive play that wins easy field position for a short drive.
Agree - I think 35 is the magic number for us. If we can't hold them under 35, as good as their offense is, then our defense didn't do a very good job.
Posted on 10/23/23 at 3:18 pm to SummerOfGeorge
It seems like LSU has been able to do whatever they've wanted running the football since the FSU game. I don't believe they'll be able to run it down our throats like they've been doing. I wonder how effective their passing game will be if they can't run the ball. FSU is the only team that has really shut them down, but that was the first game of the season.
Posted on 10/23/23 at 3:23 pm to SummerOfGeorge
Also, we can't afford to give away 25-30 yards on the few occasions we do stop LSU in their own territory by not fielding a punt. That sort of stuff will lose a game like this.
This post was edited on 10/23/23 at 3:24 pm
Posted on 10/23/23 at 3:23 pm to SummerOfGeorge
While I do think the Bama defense is the best we’ve played, what those numbers don’t factor is LSU weighs all those other defensive numbers down.
Should be a very difficult game and come down to a few plays here and there. Our defense has pretty clearly showed some modest improvement, I don’t think we’ll give up 40 but could easily be a 38-35 or 35-31 coin flip.
Should be a very difficult game and come down to a few plays here and there. Our defense has pretty clearly showed some modest improvement, I don’t think we’ll give up 40 but could easily be a 38-35 or 35-31 coin flip.
Posted on 10/23/23 at 3:25 pm to Draconian Sanctions
quote:
While I do think the Bama defense is the best we’ve played, what those numbers don’t factor is LSU weighs all those other defensive numbers down.
Those numbers don't include LSU in them. It's LSU's performance vs a team compared to that team's performance against all the other P5 teams they've played (with the LSU game removed).
IE - Arkansas gives up 6.00 YPA passing vs the P5 this year (not including LSU). LSU averaged 10.5 against Arkansas. LSU had 175% of Arkansas's P5 average allowed.
But if the "stats" played out this way, it'd basically be in coin flip territory. Comes down to who scores TDs in the red zone, who gives away points on a turnover, etc.
This method is really, really good at figuring out yards per attempt (kind of scary good), but if a game goes a little sideways with turnovers or # of plays by a team it can really throw it off. The # of plays and points per yard are averages, but those sorts of things can vary if a team just has a couple rough red zone series or has 1 bad turnover or something.
This post was edited on 10/23/23 at 3:37 pm
Posted on 10/23/23 at 3:35 pm to SummerOfGeorge
I'm good with this outcome. Would love 7 of our pts to come from a pick 6 or scoop n score just to take Daniels down a notch
This post was edited on 10/23/23 at 3:36 pm
Posted on 10/23/23 at 3:38 pm to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
Those numbers don't include LSU in them.
Fair enough
If we can get just an average performance out of our defense I like our chances, the front 7 has come around but at this point we’re missing our first 4 corners from fall camp so there will definitely be plays to be made downfield if Milroe gets time or is able to extend plays with his feet to get guys open.
This post was edited on 10/23/23 at 3:40 pm
Posted on 10/23/23 at 3:40 pm to Funky Tide 8
quote:
It seems like LSU has been able to do whatever they've wanted running the football since the FSU game.
Logan Diggs didn’t play against Florida State is why.
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