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The 2023 Alabama Offense has 2 pretty clear comps during the Saban Era
Posted on 8/14/23 at 8:19 am
Posted on 8/14/23 at 8:19 am
Both had uncertainty QB situations that were uncertain and/or up and down. Both had very good offensive lines and running back rooms. Both had offensive coordinators who loved motion and tight ends and lots of unique formations. Both could be very frustrating at times but seemed to find a groove at different points in the year. And both won national titles (with substantial assists from great defenses). And both are in the "modern" era of the Saban era (PN - post Nuss).
The 2 comps are 2017 and 2015 with Kiffin and DaBoll, QBd by sophomore Hurts and Coker.
Below are breakouts of the numbers from Rees' 3 offenses at Notre Dame along with the game breakouts (available yards, yards per play, points per drive) from their season last year. Once he got Pyne settled in around mid-season their offense played extremely well down the stretch. Now, some of that were worse defenses (UNLV, Syracuse, USC), but they also were more efficient and turned it over less. Very similar situation to how our offense seemed to hit their stride down the stretch in 2015.
The other comps are clearly just the style of play. I also threw in 2022/2021 offenses to see just how different the power run efficiencies were compared to Notre Dame and to our 2015/2017 teams. Just really not a comparison (Except for ND 2021 when they had a bunch of injuries up front).
We're going to need the defense to come out of the gate ready to go because I anticipate that whoever starts at QB will need some time to get comfortable, as will the rest of the offense (and we may even take a few games to figure out who that QB is). The Texas game obviously looms large there, but at least it is at home as is the Ole Miss game. If you had to pick a schedule setup for a new offense with a new QB with our opponents, the way it is lined up is pretty much as good as you can hope.
I don't truly know what to expect, but I'm pretty excited for the season. Really excited about the defense and hopeful for an offense that establishes an identity early and figures out a way to get the most out of whichever QB ends up being the guy.
The 2 comps are 2017 and 2015 with Kiffin and DaBoll, QBd by sophomore Hurts and Coker.
Below are breakouts of the numbers from Rees' 3 offenses at Notre Dame along with the game breakouts (available yards, yards per play, points per drive) from their season last year. Once he got Pyne settled in around mid-season their offense played extremely well down the stretch. Now, some of that were worse defenses (UNLV, Syracuse, USC), but they also were more efficient and turned it over less. Very similar situation to how our offense seemed to hit their stride down the stretch in 2015.
The other comps are clearly just the style of play. I also threw in 2022/2021 offenses to see just how different the power run efficiencies were compared to Notre Dame and to our 2015/2017 teams. Just really not a comparison (Except for ND 2021 when they had a bunch of injuries up front).
We're going to need the defense to come out of the gate ready to go because I anticipate that whoever starts at QB will need some time to get comfortable, as will the rest of the offense (and we may even take a few games to figure out who that QB is). The Texas game obviously looms large there, but at least it is at home as is the Ole Miss game. If you had to pick a schedule setup for a new offense with a new QB with our opponents, the way it is lined up is pretty much as good as you can hope.
I don't truly know what to expect, but I'm pretty excited for the season. Really excited about the defense and hopeful for an offense that establishes an identity early and figures out a way to get the most out of whichever QB ends up being the guy.
This post was edited on 8/14/23 at 8:23 am
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Posted on 8/14/23 at 9:47 am to SummerOfGeorge
The closest comparison is 2014.
New OC, QB competition between an ex-RB and a passing QB who could run a little bit.
Maybe this time we oughta go with the passing QB (Simpson). Blake Sims didn't work out so well in the long run..
New OC, QB competition between an ex-RB and a passing QB who could run a little bit.
Maybe this time we oughta go with the passing QB (Simpson). Blake Sims didn't work out so well in the long run..
Posted on 8/14/23 at 9:51 am to CrimsonBuddha
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The closest comparison is 2014.
New OC, QB competition between an ex-RB and a passing QB who could run a little bit.
Big difference is 2014 had the best WR in college football who we could rely on to get open on basically any play - short, long, across the middle, etc. And Kiffin designed an entire offense around it. That isn't how we are going to play offense this season. 2015 was designed around a power run game and pistol play action off it with motion all over the map. Our offense is going to look and feel a whole lot more like that (and the 2017 version with Jalen).
2015 ended up having a pretty elite WR by season end (freshman Calvin Ridley), but it took a while to figure it out. And the supporting cast was pretty unknown at season start (Ardarius, Foster, Mullaney transferring from Oregon State, young OJ), similar to this season. We also had a versatile RB in Kenyan and a versatile TE in OJ - both places where I think we might have some versatility this year as well. An OL with talent but one that hadn't proven itself yet but by year end was a phenomenal unit that mauled people. But it might take a while for it all to mesh together.
This post was edited on 8/14/23 at 9:56 am
Posted on 8/14/23 at 10:15 am to SummerOfGeorge
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2015 ended up having a pretty elite WR by season end (freshman Calvin Ridley), but it took a while to figure it out.
Ridley was a factor starting in game 1, and by game 5 had established himself as our go-to WR.
OJ Howard was also a major contributor throughout the season.
Oh yeah, we also had one of the greatest RBs in football history, Derrick Henry who we could lean on. He carried that team.
Sorry, but we just don't have those kinds of weapons this year. We have Jermaine Burton. Calvin Ridley is a top 10 WR in the NFL. We have Jase McClellan. Derrick Henry will be in the NFL hall of fame one day.
I mean just saying, we've experienced a massive downgrade in offensive weapons recently.
If it's Milroe, the closest comparison is 2014
If it's Simpson, we could possibly look at 2015
But really we're in new territory right now
Posted on 8/14/23 at 10:26 am to CrimsonBuddha
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Ridley was a factor starting in game 1.
This is absolutely not true. Here are the receiving stats from the first game. Ridley didn't really break out until the fifth game.
Posted on 8/14/23 at 10:27 am to CrimsonBuddha
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Ridley was a factor starting in game 1, and by game 5 had established himself as our go-to WR.
Ridley had 3 catches for 22 yards in Game 1 against Wisconsin. He didn't surpass 50 yards receiving in a game until the Georgia game in October.
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OJ Howard was also a major contributor throughout the season.
He was a solid tight end but he had 30 catches for 335 yards and 0 TDs in the regular season. Not until the Clemson game was he anything more than a solid but unspectacular receiving option.
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Oh yeah, we also had one of the greatest RBs in football history, Derrick Henry who we could lean on. He carried that team.
Which nobody knew would be the case, to the extent that it was, before the season started. And this current team has a fantastic running back room with versatile veterans and 1 (maybe 2) elite young backs. If the OL gives them room they will run for tons of yards.
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Sorry, but we just don't have those kinds of weapons this year.
Our level of established SEC level weapons is almost identical to what it was at this point in 2015 - at every position.
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I mean just saying, we've experienced a massive downgrade in offensive weapons recently.
Since 2018-2020, sure. That's why those teams aren't included here. They are not good comparisons in terms of style, experience or talent level. The QBs aren't on that level, the WRs aren't and the style of the offense won't be either.
But the 2015 team was an offensive trainwreck for about half the season. The QB situation was a mess, the WR position couldn't find space and our only option was running Derek directly into the LOS for large chunks of the year.
This offense - with it's OC, personnel, experience and strengths - will look a lot like the 2015 and 2017 teams looked in terms of structure and style. Whether the defense is good enough to give them time to figure it out and whether the QB can play within the system will determine how good it can be.
But I think the general makeup of the offensive depth chart and the play caller style will look a lot like 2015 and 2017. That's the point.
This post was edited on 8/14/23 at 10:29 am
Posted on 8/14/23 at 6:11 pm to SummerOfGeorge
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both won national titles ….QBd by sophomore Hurts and Coker.
Tua won that 2017 national title
Posted on 8/15/23 at 7:41 am to John Milner
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Tua won that 2017 national title
Tua and the defense, yes. But the season stats that are shown as comps were all Hurts.
Posted on 8/15/23 at 8:54 am to CrimsonBuddha
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Maybe this time we oughta go with the passing QB (Simpson). Blake Sims didn't work out so well in the long run..
are you shitting me?
Posted on 8/15/23 at 9:24 am to SummerOfGeorge
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Let’s take a look at that 2020 offense
1. Liam Echinberg-2nd Round Tackle. Starter on the Dolphins
2. Aaron Banks-2nd round Guard. Typically a starter for the Niners
3. Tommy Tremble-3rd Round TE. Backup in Carolina
4. Robert Hainsey-3rd Round Tackle. Starter in Tampa Bay
5. Ian Book-4th Round QB. Might be out of the NFL soon
6. Kyren Williams-6th Round RB. Backup NFL
7. Michael Mayer-1st Round TE. Played a lot as a freshman
Optimistically, I think we have a lot more depth and talent than this pretty damn good offense.
•Gotta give ND the edge at TE even though I like our guys.
•They had a strong experienced O-Line but I’d say ours is more talented.
•Runningback is easily an advantage for us.
•I’d be stunned if a few NFL guys didn’t emerge out of our roster at WR. Certainly we are more athletic than they were
•Finally we’re at QB. To be perfectly honest, if Simpson turned out like Senior year Ian Book, I’d happily take it
This post was edited on 8/15/23 at 9:27 am
Posted on 8/15/23 at 10:04 am to SummerOfGeorge
Solid analysis. Every time Bama breaks in a new QB starter the same verbal angst happens. iMHO, games are won and lost in the trenches. I am very optimist concerning the OL and the entire defense.
Most likely the offense ran this year will be run oriented with passes to the TE and RBs. That has been the Rees offense. This will allow the QB, whomever that is, and WRs to grow and develop. This type offense also allows for deeper throws as more potential receivers need to be covered.
Most likely the offense ran this year will be run oriented with passes to the TE and RBs. That has been the Rees offense. This will allow the QB, whomever that is, and WRs to grow and develop. This type offense also allows for deeper throws as more potential receivers need to be covered.
Posted on 8/15/23 at 10:36 am to In Hsv
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Most likely the offense ran this year will be run oriented with passes to the TE and RBs. That has been the Rees offense.
We've run the same offense since Saban brought in Kiffin to retool it. Daboll ran it, Locks ran it, Sark ran it, BoB ran it, and I don't know why people think Rees won't run it as well.
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Part of that role is adjusting to the system and terminology Saban already has in place, which hasn't been too steep of a learning curve for Rees.
"I think it's the right way to do it," Rees said. "There's been a system in place here for however-many years, and players here that are familiar with terminology, with what you're trying to accomplish. To say one guy is going to come in here and change everything would be the wrong way to approach it."
Each coordinator is obviously going to have their own tweaks to the offense but it's Alabama's system not theirs.
Posted on 8/15/23 at 10:49 am to RollTide33
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We've run the same offense since Saban brought in Kiffin to retool it. Daboll ran it, Locks ran it, Sark ran it, BoB ran it, and I don't know why people think Rees won't run it as well.
It might be the same offense but it can be very different. Just compare the offense under BoB with offense under Locks or Daboll.
Posted on 8/15/23 at 10:51 am to In Hsv
I couldn’t agree more. Wolford had a difficult task to do when he arrived with the OL and he’s done a great job so far, but he’s got to get them to a championship level now. I believe it’s the most important position on the offense right now.
As far as QB I can’t help but be curious how Simpson would play as the starter for the first game. He’s never took any meaningful snaps in a game at all. I’d just like to see how he would command the offense as the starter in a game. We’ve seen Milroe start.
As far as QB I can’t help but be curious how Simpson would play as the starter for the first game. He’s never took any meaningful snaps in a game at all. I’d just like to see how he would command the offense as the starter in a game. We’ve seen Milroe start.
This post was edited on 8/15/23 at 10:53 am
Posted on 8/15/23 at 11:01 am to CrimsonBuddha
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Oh yeah, we also had one of the greatest RBs in football history, Derrick Henry who we could lean on. He carried that team.
It's easy to look back with hindsight on 2015 and say the talent was self-evident. However, that team had A LOT of question marks that weren't answered until the season got underway. Henry and Ridley were not seen as sure things going into the season. Henry wasn't even in the Heisman conversation until after the LSU game. Ridley didn't turn into a reliable wide receiver until October.
Posted on 8/15/23 at 11:21 am to TizzyT4theUofA
Saban brought in Kiffin to retool it. Daboll ran it, Locks ran it, Sark ran it, BoB ran it, and I don't know why people think Rees won't run it as well.
It might be the same offense but it can be very different. Just compare the offense under BoB with offense under Locks or Daboll.
It is the same, but you match the capabilities of the Quaterback and receivers to the playbook. Some years you have a more run based attack and some s more pass based. But I believe you will see more TE and RB involvement than in the past 2-3 years.
It might be the same offense but it can be very different. Just compare the offense under BoB with offense under Locks or Daboll.
It is the same, but you match the capabilities of the Quaterback and receivers to the playbook. Some years you have a more run based attack and some s more pass based. But I believe you will see more TE and RB involvement than in the past 2-3 years.
Posted on 8/15/23 at 11:49 am to hwyman108
If Simpson doesn’t clearly outshine and separate himself from Milroe and Buchner in the passing game it won’t matter. The coaching staff is not going to give up the variable of Milroe’s running ability to get just a little bit better passing from Simpson.
Posted on 8/15/23 at 12:04 pm to SummerOfGeorge
Great analysis George! I think Milroe (who I expect will start) will surprise people this year and be much more improved over last year. I'm looking forward to a great season.
You know Nick is loving everything he is hearing in the media right now.
You know Nick is loving everything he is hearing in the media right now.
Posted on 8/15/23 at 1:43 pm to LovetheLord
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If Simpson doesn’t clearly outshine and separate himself from Milroe and Buchner in the passing game it won’t matter. The coaching staff is not going to give up the variable of Milroe’s running ability to get just a little bit better passing from Simpson.
Ok but Simpson is a good runner as well. He may not be capable of a 60 yard TD run, but he can run like Bryce Young.
The question is if opposing defenses load the box and play man-to-man, daring us to pass the ball, can Milroe do it?
He couldn't do it last year vs. Arkansas and Texas A&M. I don't know how he'd fare vs. Georgia and LSU.
Hopefully he's much improved
This post was edited on 8/15/23 at 1:46 pm
Posted on 8/18/23 at 9:55 am to CrimsonBuddha
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Blake Sims didn't work out so well in the long run..
Sims played his arse off for us.
That OSU loss is not him. We were up 20-3 at one point, and then got out coached. And out executed, to be fair.
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