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The CFP’s Nightmare SEC Scenario
Posted on 10/19/22 at 7:54 am
Posted on 10/19/22 at 7:54 am
Bama runs the table and wins SEC championship
Ole Miss wins out with the exception of the one loss to Bama
Tenn/UGA play undefeated with the loser winning out and the winner losing the SEC championship.
We would be left with four, 1 loss SEC teams who’s only losses have come against each other.
Obviously, I don’t want this to happen as it means 2 more LSU losses and another Bama SEC championship but the chaos would be entertaining.
In this scenario, who gets in and who is left out?
Ole Miss wins out with the exception of the one loss to Bama
Tenn/UGA play undefeated with the loser winning out and the winner losing the SEC championship.
We would be left with four, 1 loss SEC teams who’s only losses have come against each other.
Obviously, I don’t want this to happen as it means 2 more LSU losses and another Bama SEC championship but the chaos would be entertaining.
In this scenario, who gets in and who is left out?
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Posted on 10/19/22 at 7:59 am to ValueTiger
I don't think UTK or Ole Miss get the deference afforded to Bama or UGa.
Added monkeywrench: USC beats Clemson, who still wins the ACC. UGa and UTK both would have a victory over a 9-3 Carolina team in the context. In the above scenario, UTK has probably the best overall resume, and should get in over Clemson.
Added monkeywrench: USC beats Clemson, who still wins the ACC. UGa and UTK both would have a victory over a 9-3 Carolina team in the context. In the above scenario, UTK has probably the best overall resume, and should get in over Clemson.
Posted on 10/19/22 at 8:02 am to RoyalAir
quote:
I don't think UTK or Ole Miss get the deference afforded to Bama or UGa.
This.
Ole Miss or Tennessee have to win SEC to get in.
Posted on 10/19/22 at 8:02 am to ValueTiger
Too many variables here. Does Clemson stay unbeaten? What about tOSU or Michigan? Are the SEC games tight like Bama-UT, or are some of them more comfortable?
Posted on 10/19/22 at 8:02 am to RoyalAir
If Tennessee were to win out and lose to Bama in the SECCG, they could play each other a third time in the playoffs. That would be insane.
Posted on 10/19/22 at 8:04 am to ValueTiger
The only way UT and Ole Miss get in is winning the SEC
Posted on 10/19/22 at 8:10 am to bamawriter
quote:
Too many variables here. Does Clemson stay unbeaten? What about tOSU or Michigan? Are the SEC games tight like Bama-UT, or are some of them more comfortable?
This. Clemson isnt losing a game this year. The schedule is really bad. OSU/Michigan winner is probably going to stay undefeated. Thats two spots there. Its going to depend a lot on how the games are played. Also, there is going to be a lot of pressure on the committee not to allow the SEC to have more than one team.
Posted on 10/19/22 at 8:14 am to StopRobot
quote:
Clemson isnt losing a game this year.
Don't be so sure...
Posted on 10/19/22 at 8:15 am to bamawriter
quote:
Does Clemson stay unbeaten? What about tOSU or Michigan?
Yeah, that'll be a huge determining factor.
No way they afford more than two teams from one conference if two others are undefeated, regardless of SOS.
I think we like to pretend that the best four teams will get in, but this will almost never be the case if the majority play in one conference, let alone one division.
Posted on 10/19/22 at 8:18 am to ValueTiger
Why is that a nightmare scenario?
It would be AL, GA and TN in the lead three from the SEC.
Tn has the win over AL who would be in the playoff.
OM has the loss to Bama. And has no wins over anyone in the playoff.
AL would be in.
GA would be in.
If GA lost the TN-GA matchup… they still lost to TN… who also beat AL. And it’s a higher quality loss. Plus GA has a vastly stronger SOS than Ole Miss.
These nightmare scenarios are actually cut and dry if you think about it.
It would be AL, GA and TN in the lead three from the SEC.
Tn has the win over AL who would be in the playoff.
OM has the loss to Bama. And has no wins over anyone in the playoff.
AL would be in.
GA would be in.
If GA lost the TN-GA matchup… they still lost to TN… who also beat AL. And it’s a higher quality loss. Plus GA has a vastly stronger SOS than Ole Miss.
These nightmare scenarios are actually cut and dry if you think about it.
This post was edited on 10/19/22 at 8:33 am
Posted on 10/19/22 at 8:20 am to ValueTiger
Teams (in all conferences) still have a lot of the season left (at least 5 games). Why chicken count just yet?
Posted on 10/19/22 at 8:20 am to ValueTiger
quote:
In this scenario, who gets in and who is left out?
IT
DEPENDS
ON
OTHER
P5
CHAMPS
Believe it or not, the CF Playoffs doesn't solely revolve around the SEC
Posted on 10/19/22 at 8:23 am to ValueTiger
That’s a very possible and really fun scenario to see happen.
Bama would be in, obviously.
Anything past that will depend on
Ohio State/Michigan. Close game there puts both teams in play. Assume Ohio State wins big
TCU, Clemson and UCLA (putting UCLA in would be like putting Cincinnati in last year) will have a say. Assume Clemson wins out, other 2 have a loss
1 - Ohio State
2 - Clemson
3 - Bama
4 - Georgia
If (monumentally huge if) there’s real chaos with Clemson, TCU and UCLA all lose and Michigan gets blown out.
1 - Ohio State
2 - Bama
3 - The stinking Vols
4 - Georgia
Other than winning the SECCG I don’t see a path for Ole Miss to make the playoff.
Bama would be in, obviously.
Anything past that will depend on
Ohio State/Michigan. Close game there puts both teams in play. Assume Ohio State wins big
TCU, Clemson and UCLA (putting UCLA in would be like putting Cincinnati in last year) will have a say. Assume Clemson wins out, other 2 have a loss
1 - Ohio State
2 - Clemson
3 - Bama
4 - Georgia
If (monumentally huge if) there’s real chaos with Clemson, TCU and UCLA all lose and Michigan gets blown out.
1 - Ohio State
2 - Bama
3 - The stinking Vols
4 - Georgia
Other than winning the SECCG I don’t see a path for Ole Miss to make the playoff.
Posted on 10/19/22 at 8:24 am to CleverUserName
quote:
GA has a vastly stronger SOS
Compared to?
Posted on 10/19/22 at 8:26 am to RoyalAir
quote:
Added monkeywrench: USC beats Clemson,
:rotflmao: :rotflmao:
Posted on 10/19/22 at 8:28 am to ValueTiger
Two at max are getting in. A lot of other stuff would have to happen for three to be in, much less four.
Like no conference champs with just one loss or less other than the SEC champion.
If Tennessee or UGA run the table, they are in. Obviously if Bama runs the table and wins in ATL, they are in. If UGA or UT run the table and the other has one loss only, they might be in if Bama loses the SECCG.
As far as three or four, likely not to happen even if four one loss SEC teams.
Like no conference champs with just one loss or less other than the SEC champion.
If Tennessee or UGA run the table, they are in. Obviously if Bama runs the table and wins in ATL, they are in. If UGA or UT run the table and the other has one loss only, they might be in if Bama loses the SECCG.
As far as three or four, likely not to happen even if four one loss SEC teams.
Posted on 10/19/22 at 8:30 am to koreandawg
quote:
As far as three or four, likely not to happen even if four one loss SEC teams.
likely not? I know we like to hedge on message baord a little to avoid things getting thrown back in our faces, but I can 1000000000% assure you with everything I've ever known on my life that there will never be 4 teams from the same league make a 4 team playoff.
Posted on 10/19/22 at 8:31 am to paperwasp
quote:
Compared to?
Ole Miss. that’s what I was alluding to in the post.
This post was edited on 10/19/22 at 8:32 am
Posted on 10/19/22 at 8:32 am to Lonnie Utah
quote:
Don't be so sure...
No I am 100% sure you are not beating Clemson.
Posted on 10/19/22 at 8:34 am to paperwasp
quote:... until an expanded playoff begins.
I think we like to pretend that the best four teams will get in, but this will almost never be the case
OM & UTK probably only have path to playoff through ATL, which would eliminate Bama. Maybe UGA could get in with close loss to Tenner.
All 4 have quite a bit of meat left on their schedules. May not know who's going to Atlanta until mid-late Nov.
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