Started By
Message
Analysis of Jake Fromm's season (NOT a vs. Fields thread)
Posted on 11/22/18 at 8:01 am
Posted on 11/22/18 at 8:01 am
It seems pretty clear to me that Fromm is playing better and more confidently than he was early in the season. It seemed like the BYE week woke him up, because from the Florida game on I feel like we've seen the Jake Fromm we expected to see all year. I decided to go through the numbers and figure out why that was. Here's a breakdown:
First 7 games (ending with LSU):
99-148 (66.8%)
21 attempts per game
1,409 yards (201.2 per game)
9.5 yards per attempt
10 TD's
4 INT's
108.76 passer rating
Last 4 games (starting with UF):
49-69 (71.0%)
17 attempts per game
652 yards (163 per game)
9.4 yards per attempt
7 TD's
1 INT
128.41 passer rating
So a couple of interesting things here:
-His completion percentage is up
-TD's per game are up
-TD/INT ratio is improved
-Rating is WAY up
-Yards per attempt are basically the exact same
The only things that are really down are attempts per game and yards per game (which, with yards per attempt being the same, that means those two are in fact directly related).
Overall, these numbers tell me two things:
-Fromm is better when he doesn't have to carry a heavy load. Keep him around 15-20 attempts and he's better than when he has to throw 25+ times. This is likely also due to us throwing the ball more usually being related to us struggling to run the ball, although that wasn't necessarily the case in the LSU game.
-Georgia's not really doing anything differently right now than they were earlier in the year outside of running the ball a little bit more and a little more effectively.
Certainly Fromm is playing better, but the Georgia coaching staff might be learning that he's just one of those quarterbacks who doesn't play well with lots of attempts. "Turning him loose" won't really work. You have to execute the offense. He's a textbook game manager QB, and I don't mean that as an insult or even a backhanded compliment. He's really damn good when he gets to play for an offense that's not relying on him to carry it with his arm, but that's not how Georgia's built anyway.
Bottom line: run the ball and Fromm will be just fine. Don't, and he'll struggle. That sounds like one giant "duh", but that's what the numbers appear to back up.
Anyway, that's my useless number-crunching for today. Happy Thanksgiving!
First 7 games (ending with LSU):
99-148 (66.8%)
21 attempts per game
1,409 yards (201.2 per game)
9.5 yards per attempt
10 TD's
4 INT's
108.76 passer rating
Last 4 games (starting with UF):
49-69 (71.0%)
17 attempts per game
652 yards (163 per game)
9.4 yards per attempt
7 TD's
1 INT
128.41 passer rating
So a couple of interesting things here:
-His completion percentage is up
-TD's per game are up
-TD/INT ratio is improved
-Rating is WAY up
-Yards per attempt are basically the exact same
The only things that are really down are attempts per game and yards per game (which, with yards per attempt being the same, that means those two are in fact directly related).
Overall, these numbers tell me two things:
-Fromm is better when he doesn't have to carry a heavy load. Keep him around 15-20 attempts and he's better than when he has to throw 25+ times. This is likely also due to us throwing the ball more usually being related to us struggling to run the ball, although that wasn't necessarily the case in the LSU game.
-Georgia's not really doing anything differently right now than they were earlier in the year outside of running the ball a little bit more and a little more effectively.
Certainly Fromm is playing better, but the Georgia coaching staff might be learning that he's just one of those quarterbacks who doesn't play well with lots of attempts. "Turning him loose" won't really work. You have to execute the offense. He's a textbook game manager QB, and I don't mean that as an insult or even a backhanded compliment. He's really damn good when he gets to play for an offense that's not relying on him to carry it with his arm, but that's not how Georgia's built anyway.
Bottom line: run the ball and Fromm will be just fine. Don't, and he'll struggle. That sounds like one giant "duh", but that's what the numbers appear to back up.
Anyway, that's my useless number-crunching for today. Happy Thanksgiving!
This post was edited on 11/22/18 at 8:35 am
6
Posted on 11/22/18 at 8:12 am to BranchDawg
Good analysis; I agree with your assessment.
Bottom line: our offense (and most offenses) are better when there is a nice balance between running and passing. Obviously this keeps the opposing defenses honest and provides more opportunities for big surprise type passing plays.
I understand this isn't about Fields but this balanced concept could be taken to another level with Fields running an option attack and passing over the heads of defenders coming up to defend the run; we just have to convince the opposing defense that it's going to be a running play and it will be if they drop back into coverage.
This is exactly what OU did against use in the playoff game. Fortunately we were able to out score them in OT.
Bottom line: our offense (and most offenses) are better when there is a nice balance between running and passing. Obviously this keeps the opposing defenses honest and provides more opportunities for big surprise type passing plays.
I understand this isn't about Fields but this balanced concept could be taken to another level with Fields running an option attack and passing over the heads of defenders coming up to defend the run; we just have to convince the opposing defense that it's going to be a running play and it will be if they drop back into coverage.
This is exactly what OU did against use in the playoff game. Fortunately we were able to out score them in OT.
Posted on 11/22/18 at 8:17 am to BranchDawg
If you take out the LSU game and UMASS game, he was better at the beginning of the year....but honestly, he’s been the same all year outside LSU game
Posted on 11/22/18 at 8:21 am to BranchDawg
Those passer ratings are way off in calculations fyi. You did nfl. Here is college:
163.8 for early games
180.9 for recent games
163.8 for early games
180.9 for recent games
This post was edited on 11/22/18 at 8:26 am
Posted on 11/22/18 at 8:23 am to IT_Dawg
quote:
If you take out the LSU game and UMASS game, he was better at the beginning of the yea
Not if I take the Austin Peay and MTSU games out of the first half. You can alter the samples all you want, but I think the points I made stand up pretty well. The LSU game was easily his worst performance, sure, but it was also an exaggeration of a pretty proven trend that the numbers overall bear out.
Posted on 11/22/18 at 8:24 am to djsdawg
quote:
Those passer ratings are way off in calculations fyi
I plugged the numbers into a passer rating calculator and that's what it spit out. If someone wants to run them themselves, feel free.
ETA:
quote:
163.8 for early games 180.9 for recent games
Still matches the uptick that the other numbers showed, so that's basically semantics. I won't dispute it though, the calculator I used could've very well been shite.
This post was edited on 11/22/18 at 8:28 am
Posted on 11/22/18 at 8:26 am to BranchDawg
Done
Posted on 11/22/18 at 8:40 am to GurleyGirl
quote:
This is exactly what OU did against use in the playoff game. Fortunately we were able to out score them in OT.
Funny you bring up the OU game, because I think it actually perfectly illustrates my point and reveals a big problem with Jim Chaney.
OU got up on us early and we struggled to score points in the first half (had 14 before the goofy onside kick sequence). Chaney immediately abandoned the run game and the offense stalled.
Second half, we just decided to run it down their throats: 28 points in the half.
Georgia HAS to run the ball to win games. If Bama or Oklahoma have their run games stalled, they have the kind of quarterbacks that can bail them out and still put up points. Fromm's just not that type of player. Run the ball effectively, he'll play well against anybody. Don't and he'll struggle.
I worry about this in the SECCG, because if Bama turns it into a track meet, Chaney is likely to abandon the run with the quickness and Bama will run away with the game if that happens.
This post was edited on 11/22/18 at 8:41 am
Posted on 11/22/18 at 9:04 am to BranchDawg
Fromm has been the same all year except for 3rd downs.
In the first half of the season, he had improved statistically over the prior year in every category but third downs.
Third down success is so crucial to the entire team. Without it, no one gets enough touches.
The great news is that we have come out of the bye week much better and more prepared to destroy teams on third down. And that is giving our backs more carries to wear down opponents and own the 4th quarter.
And for Fromm's development, he needs to improve each season. As a 3rd year starter, he needs to be able to create more. That is what NFL QBs do. Make opportunities despite the opponent shutting everything down.
It is OK to throw it away. On a rare occasion, it is OK to take the sack. But there will be times when he just needs to rip it and make a throw that allows his receivers to make big plays. That is where he needs to be next season to pace his development.
In the first half of the season, he had improved statistically over the prior year in every category but third downs.
Third down success is so crucial to the entire team. Without it, no one gets enough touches.
The great news is that we have come out of the bye week much better and more prepared to destroy teams on third down. And that is giving our backs more carries to wear down opponents and own the 4th quarter.
And for Fromm's development, he needs to improve each season. As a 3rd year starter, he needs to be able to create more. That is what NFL QBs do. Make opportunities despite the opponent shutting everything down.
It is OK to throw it away. On a rare occasion, it is OK to take the sack. But there will be times when he just needs to rip it and make a throw that allows his receivers to make big plays. That is where he needs to be next season to pace his development.
Posted on 11/22/18 at 9:24 am to BranchDawg
Seems like it has to do with running the damn ball more after the LSU game. I mean what the frick was Chaney even doing up til that point? It really made this season hard to watch up through the LSU game. We look like a totally different team now. Peaking at the right time for sure but the damn the injuries and the defense is still pretty suspect.
Posted on 11/22/18 at 9:36 am to BranchDawg
It's tough to draw many conclusions from the stats, not enough data, but Fromm has been going through his progressions better in the 2nd half IMO. That may be because he's had more time in the pocket or because he's getting more comfortable.
This post was edited on 11/22/18 at 9:37 am
Posted on 11/22/18 at 10:02 am to BranchDawg
quote:
Chaney immediately abandoned the run game and the offense stalled.
For any offensive coordinator who has a significant body of work, you can find plenty of circumstances where they have what looks like a bad call, or a bad series, half, or entire game. Overall, I think Chaney has done a great job and played a big role in Kirby's success as a fledgling head coach. His experience as a coordinator is just what Kirby needed to allow him to grow into this job.
Posted on 11/22/18 at 11:08 am to BranchDawg
But Fields.... Blah Blah Blah....
Posted on 11/22/18 at 11:10 am to RFDAWG
quote:
RFDAWG
Boooooo this man
Posted on 11/22/18 at 1:48 pm to IT_Dawg
Just saying....tired of the drama!!!
Posted on 11/22/18 at 3:37 pm to RFDAWG
So you introduced it to a post that otherwise had no references to it...
Posted on 11/22/18 at 4:04 pm to fibonaccisquared
Yes....yes I did. Making fun of the whining bitches on this board who think Fields should be our starter. When clearly From has a better head for the game... especially against SEC opponents.
This post was edited on 11/22/18 at 4:06 pm
Page 1 of 1
Latest Georgia News
Popular
Back to top
Follow SECRant for SEC Football News