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Posted on 2/9/20 at 7:37 am to jangalang
“I AIN’T CHANGIN’ IT—I’M STICKIN’ WITH MY BOYS”
—Bruce Allan Pearl, 28/01/2020
—Bruce Allan Pearl, 28/01/2020
Posted on 2/9/20 at 9:06 am to TheSandman
TeamRankings has us at 100% to make the tournament with the most likely seed being a 2 seed.
Also, I know its an irrelevant ranking system these days, but I think I saw where we're #2 in RPI after Kansas.
Also, I know its an irrelevant ranking system these days, but I think I saw where we're #2 in RPI after Kansas.
Posted on 2/9/20 at 9:57 am to MrAUTigers
quote:
Dropped in kenpom.
If you underperform KenPom expectations, your efficiency goes down. We were expected to beat LSU by 3-5 in regulation not 1pt in OT
KenPom is not a resume evaluation tool and doesn't claim to be
This post was edited on 2/9/20 at 9:58 am
Posted on 2/9/20 at 10:41 am to GenesChin
What is going on with the Big10 that kenpom ranks them all so high? Is it just coincidence, or is there something about the style of Big10 basketball that lends itself to the kenpom formula. Is the Big10 just efficient up and down the league? Seems improbable as they all play each other.
This post was edited on 2/9/20 at 10:42 am
Posted on 2/9/20 at 10:59 am to PearlJam
Somebody did an analysis of their OOC wins/schedules the other day. They've got a ton of good wins. Our dominating win against Washington and close loss to Duke last season did the same for us.
Posted on 2/9/20 at 11:22 am to jsmoove
I think we close out the regular season 6-2 and maybe even a 7-1 finish.
Alabama (W)
@ Mizz (W)
@ Georgia (W)
Tennessee (W)
Ole Miss (W)
@ Kentucky (L)
Texas AM (W)
@ Tennessee (?)
Alabama (W)
@ Mizz (W)
@ Georgia (W)
Tennessee (W)
Ole Miss (W)
@ Kentucky (L)
Texas AM (W)
@ Tennessee (?)
Posted on 2/9/20 at 11:31 am to MTurbo
It’s basketball. We might be favored in 7 of our remaining 8, but I don’t feel confident predicting anything other than toss ups for away games.
Posted on 2/9/20 at 11:31 am to MTurbo
UT has been devastated by injuries. I don't think we'll lose to them. I'd say after UK that Mizzou is probably the most likely loss with us being due a letdown after all the big emotional games that we will have played in a row.
Posted on 2/9/20 at 11:47 am to PearlJam
quote:
What is going on with the Big10 that kenpom ranks them all so high?
They dominated OOC and won by huge margins. KenPom looks very favorably on blowouts
Posted on 2/9/20 at 1:54 pm to GenesChin
From Al.com Auburn reporter Giana Han
quote:
Devan Cambridge needs to find consistency
Devan Cambridge scored 21 points against the No. 1 team in the SEC, LSU, but he isn’t a starter.
Cambridge shot 70 percent from three, his seven three-pointers the most of any player on the floor, yet he’s still not even the sixth player in Auburn’s starting rotation. He scored the third-most points on the team, more than three other starters, and it’s the second time in six games he’s scored more than 20 points.
After he made his first shot against LSU, every time he stepped onto the floor, the Jungle roared. They called out his name after the game. Children waited to get his autograph.
Bruce Pearl knows the question is coming — when is he going to start starting him? And he already has the answer ready: “When he keeps playing like that.”
Rewinding No. 11 Auburn’s win against No. 18 LSU
The talent needed to start is definitely there. Just before the season started, when Cambridge was in a boot, Pearl said Cambridge should be a part of the regular rotation despite the injury setback.
Cambridge played in the first game of the season, and he made a moderate contribution to the win, adding six points and three rebounds. It wasn’t until the CSUN game, when he hit two three’s, scored 10 points and made three rebounds, that he started to stand out. He followed it up with a nine-point performance against Colgate.
But then Cambridge disappeared. For the next 12 games, Cambridge scored five points or less and had one rebound or less. In five of those he didn’t score at all.
The South Carolina game seemed to come out of nowhere. His 26 points came after two scoreless performances, and they were more than he had scored in all 12 of those games combined. In the first 17 games, he had gone 7-28 from three but went 6-9 that night. The five rebounds he came down with were the most he had all season.
READ: Three takeaways from Auburn’s comeback against LSU for first place in the SEC
“I have said that, someday, he could be our best player,” Pearl said after that game. “I’ve said that.”
When Cambridge next hit the floor at Auburn Arena in the Tigers game against Iowa State, the fans let out a loud cheer. Cambridge went 0-2 with three rebounds in the 14 minutes he played that game. For the next three games, Cambridge went scoreless and played less than 10 minutes in each game.
But all that was forgiven when he hit the floor against LSU. Once again, Cambridge’s performance was key to a big home win. With Danjel Purifoy out sick with the flu, Cambridge knew he’d have to fill in. Pearl had asked Cambridge before the South Carolina game “what are you waiting for?” and told him he had to step up. Cambridge knew he’d have to step up again.
Along with Samir Doughty and J’Von McCormick, he helped spark a comeback, and then he helped build the lead in overtime that ended with a one-point win. His performance earned him 18 more minutes of time than his typical 11.5 minutes a game. Some of those minutes were given to him by fellow freshmen Allen Flanigan. When his turn in the rotation came around in the second half, Flanigan told the coaches to leave Cambridge in because he was hot.
Both the LSU game and the South Carolina game are important because they show Pearl that Cambridge is capable of greatness if he goes out with confidence.
“You can see, when he’s going he’s got no fear,” Pearl said.
But Pearl has already said that players earn game minutes over a long period of time rather than through short trials. Cambridge has two great games, two good games and a long list of mediocre and poor games. The stat sheets also don’t show that he has work to do on the defensive end.
“But he needs to be able to find a way, and he will, he’s still young, to find a way to play more consistently,” Pearl said. “But he gives us a dimension, another weapon.”
Posted on 2/9/20 at 2:08 pm to jangalang
Pearl really is as good of a talent evaluator as he is a recruiter of the top ranked guys.
I've said this before, but if Pearl was HC of South Carolina instead of Frank Martin they would've had Zion and Ja Morant last season and won the Natty
I've said this before, but if Pearl was HC of South Carolina instead of Frank Martin they would've had Zion and Ja Morant last season and won the Natty
Posted on 2/9/20 at 2:10 pm to jangalang
I'm slightly worried about having a letdown game against Bama this week given ourast 3 emotional games
Posted on 2/9/20 at 2:12 pm to AUNashville
I bet Bama won't be. We have to be pissed about them stomping us at their house.
Posted on 2/9/20 at 2:17 pm to plaric
Yeah, that's what I'm counting on...it's a revenge game.
Posted on 2/9/20 at 2:20 pm to GenesChin
You’ve alluded to it before, but in my opinion KenPom should apply a sigmoid curve to its MOV component, in particular it’s weighting of blowouts. I think a better predictive model should consider blowouts of increasing point differential more and more impressive, but it should saturate the influence of margin gradually until it doesn’t matter anymore.
The difference between a forty point and fifty point beat down should not be weighted the same as the difference between a ten and twenty point loss. I’d argue the difference between the impressiveness of the 40 and 50 point margin is basically identical.
The difference between a forty point and fifty point beat down should not be weighted the same as the difference between a ten and twenty point loss. I’d argue the difference between the impressiveness of the 40 and 50 point margin is basically identical.
This post was edited on 2/9/20 at 9:51 pm
Posted on 2/9/20 at 3:48 pm to Ross
quote:
KenPom should apply a sigmoid curve to its weighting of blowouts.
He claims that the margin of victory even at the extremes does have predictive power
I don't but it but not my ranking either
This post was edited on 2/9/20 at 3:49 pm
Posted on 2/9/20 at 3:48 pm to AUNashville
quote:I'm not worried about a let down. If they beat us they are just going to have to flat out beat us or we are going to have to play flat. If we were going to have a let down emotional game it was LSU. With them being pissed after losing to Vandy plus a dreary, bad weather morning in AU it was set up for us to lose but we powered through & didn't.
I'm slightly worried about having a letdown game against Bama this week given ourast 3 emotional games
What I worry about is all these 35-40 minute games Samir & J'Von are having to play. At some point, reason would dictate they & their legs are going to tire out.
Posted on 2/9/20 at 6:04 pm to GenesChin
Yeah I won’t throw too much shade towards his model, in general it seems pretty great.
I would think intuitively the predictive power granted at the extremes of MOV is overshadowed by the statistical noise encountered there. In extremely lopsided games you’ll see bench players get more of a featured role or players might not give 100% leading to easy buckets at the end changing the MOV in potentially non representative ways.
That’s my contention at least.
I would think intuitively the predictive power granted at the extremes of MOV is overshadowed by the statistical noise encountered there. In extremely lopsided games you’ll see bench players get more of a featured role or players might not give 100% leading to easy buckets at the end changing the MOV in potentially non representative ways.
That’s my contention at least.
Posted on 2/9/20 at 7:15 pm to Ross
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