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CFP roster analysis with AU comparisons
Posted on 12/20/24 at 8:18 am
Posted on 12/20/24 at 8:18 am
"Every freshman you start is gonna cost you a game." - Coach Pat Dye, and probably a generation of coaches before him.
So, what does it take to get to the CFP? And then to win it? Three things: Blue Chip players (4*-5*), experienced players, and scheduling luck. AU numbers also provided to benchmark where we are and where we have to go throughout.
TL:DR - If you just picked the three most experienced SEC rosters at the start of the season and called them as the three SEC CFP entries, you would have been 100%. The 4th most experienced roster, bammer, was the first team out of the CFP.
Here are the # of blue chip players on each CFP team:
UGA - 69
OSU - 69
Texas - 61
ND - 58
Oregon - 56
PSU - 53
Clemson - 52
Tenn - 41
SMU - 25
ASU - 18
Indy - 10
BSU - 2
SEC CFP Team Analysis
As best I can tell from what articles are available, AU is in the vicinity of Tennessee and Clemson on this list AFTER this year's class gets on campus, but virtually all of our Blue Chippers will be TFR and True Soph's with a handful of Jr's.
Freeze's last two classes have been 70-75% BC's, which is about where you have to recruit year in and year out to be in the top half of this group. For reference, Saban's NC teams all had >71% blue chippers (his 1st three) or >80% for the last two. UGA's were 77% and 80%. No other NC team since 2011 has been >68%. You may recall Saban's teams had a disproportionate # of 5*'s in their BCR compared to everyone else. Nowadays, it takes more than a Dodge Charger on dubs and a house-sitting job for momma to land that kind of roster.
But if you recall my prior SEC roster analysis, I strongly contend that experience, especially that gained in the same coaching system and playing together, matters even more than blue chips. Recalling that analysis from early this season, the top three teams in the SEC in terms of total upperclassmen in their two-deep were Tennessee, Georgia, and Texas, in that order, with 28, 26, and 25 upperclassmen. Mizz and Al were tied for fourth with 24 apiece. Auburn was 11th in the conference, but the worst part about AU was that all but three upperclassmen were only in their 2nd year on campus - ie, they were transfers.
Looking at the most experienced three SEC teams, Georgia has ONE upperclassman transfer in his 2nd year, Texas has only three, and Tennessee has eight. In other words, AU had more 2nd year portal guys than the three SEC teams in the CFP did COMBINED. It is telling that the only three SEC teams in the CFP were also the three most experienced teams in the SEC.
Considering combined first year (xfer+TFR) players in the two deep - and in the case of these three teams, virtually all of these guys are on the 2nd team, UGA has 7 players in their first year, Tennessee has 10, and Texas has 11. AU had 18 guys suiting up in O&B for the first time, most of them starters. Tennessee starts 5 first year players, 4 of which are on O along with their RSFR QB, which might be the problem behind their inconsistency on O this year. Texas starts 4 first year players, three of them on D with two of those on the DL. UGA only starts two 1st year guys, and they are stars - xfer Etienne at RB on O and TFR FS KJ Bolden on D.
So, what does it take to get to the CFP? And then to win it? Three things: Blue Chip players (4*-5*), experienced players, and scheduling luck. AU numbers also provided to benchmark where we are and where we have to go throughout.
TL:DR - If you just picked the three most experienced SEC rosters at the start of the season and called them as the three SEC CFP entries, you would have been 100%. The 4th most experienced roster, bammer, was the first team out of the CFP.
Here are the # of blue chip players on each CFP team:
UGA - 69
OSU - 69
Texas - 61
ND - 58
Oregon - 56
PSU - 53
Clemson - 52
Tenn - 41
SMU - 25
ASU - 18
Indy - 10
BSU - 2
SEC CFP Team Analysis
As best I can tell from what articles are available, AU is in the vicinity of Tennessee and Clemson on this list AFTER this year's class gets on campus, but virtually all of our Blue Chippers will be TFR and True Soph's with a handful of Jr's.
Freeze's last two classes have been 70-75% BC's, which is about where you have to recruit year in and year out to be in the top half of this group. For reference, Saban's NC teams all had >71% blue chippers (his 1st three) or >80% for the last two. UGA's were 77% and 80%. No other NC team since 2011 has been >68%. You may recall Saban's teams had a disproportionate # of 5*'s in their BCR compared to everyone else. Nowadays, it takes more than a Dodge Charger on dubs and a house-sitting job for momma to land that kind of roster.
But if you recall my prior SEC roster analysis, I strongly contend that experience, especially that gained in the same coaching system and playing together, matters even more than blue chips. Recalling that analysis from early this season, the top three teams in the SEC in terms of total upperclassmen in their two-deep were Tennessee, Georgia, and Texas, in that order, with 28, 26, and 25 upperclassmen. Mizz and Al were tied for fourth with 24 apiece. Auburn was 11th in the conference, but the worst part about AU was that all but three upperclassmen were only in their 2nd year on campus - ie, they were transfers.
Looking at the most experienced three SEC teams, Georgia has ONE upperclassman transfer in his 2nd year, Texas has only three, and Tennessee has eight. In other words, AU had more 2nd year portal guys than the three SEC teams in the CFP did COMBINED. It is telling that the only three SEC teams in the CFP were also the three most experienced teams in the SEC.
Considering combined first year (xfer+TFR) players in the two deep - and in the case of these three teams, virtually all of these guys are on the 2nd team, UGA has 7 players in their first year, Tennessee has 10, and Texas has 11. AU had 18 guys suiting up in O&B for the first time, most of them starters. Tennessee starts 5 first year players, 4 of which are on O along with their RSFR QB, which might be the problem behind their inconsistency on O this year. Texas starts 4 first year players, three of them on D with two of those on the DL. UGA only starts two 1st year guys, and they are stars - xfer Etienne at RB on O and TFR FS KJ Bolden on D.
4
Posted on 12/20/24 at 8:18 am to TigerHornII
Rest of the CFP Teams vs the SEC's Rosters
Looking at the other teams, some things jump out:
ASU and especially Indiana look the most like a Lane Kiffen team, with 17 and 18 1st year xfers respectively in their two-deeps, most starting. Of course it helps to play the 62nd and 67th ranked SOS when you have a team like that, it gives them time to gel (for reference, AU had the 19th ranked SOS). ASU's D looks particularly weak, with 13 combined 1st year guys in the D 2-deep. Look for the Texas/Clemson winner to run up the score on them.
Likewise, Indy faces a ND team with more blue chippers, but overall ND is pretty young with 25 TFR and true SO's and only 12 combined upperclassmen (with at least 1 year on campus besides this one). ND is dead last in the CFP in this category. ND faced the 59th SOS. I look for ND to have an up and down game with Indy, as young teams often do, but they will get the W and then get their youth exposed vs UGA, if UGA's BU QB can ball. ND will be back next year though, barring disaster, and they should be much better. ND has a roster now that looks a lot like what AU's will in terms of stars and experience next year, but their SOS is 59th, an advantage AU will never have as long as we are in the SEC.
PSU and SMU could be a better matchup than many think, with two very experienced teams facing off. In fact, by upperclassmen, these are the two most experienced teams in the CFP with 31 for SMU and 30 for PSU. Neither team will be easily rattled, and you saw this with SMU in the title game with Clemson - despite disaster early and late, SMU just wouldn't die until Clemson made a 57 yard FG. That is upperclassmen maintaining their composure in the face of adversity. Having said that, SMU does have 10 1st year xfers to PSU's 4, and PSU has more talent. I think PSU wins this one.
The Clemson-Texas game should also be interesting. Dabo's philosophy really jumps out at you when you look at the numbers here. He has ZERO xfers on the two-deep, the only CFP team in that position. He has 21 TFR + 2nd year guys on the two deep, and 24 upperclassmen. You saw this experience keep counterpunching SMU every time they landed what looked like a haymaker in their game. However, Texas is even more experienced, more talented, and, believe it or not, has the 2nd toughest SOS in the CFP at 20th (Tennessee is next at 28th). Texas has 25 upperclassmen and another 10 2nd year guys. I look for Texas to take this one, but don't underestimate the power of team with all those guys at Clemson who have been together for so long.
Ohio State vs Tennessee pits another two experienced teams. Although Tennessee has more upperclassmen, 28 vs 23, OSU has only seven first year guys in the depth chart and only three of these start. Tenn has 10 new guys with more starters. OSU has the third most 2nd year talent in the CFP, with 14, behind only Clemson (21) and ND (25). Look for all three of these teams to be a threat to be here next year. Tennessee not so much, they lose 17 guys this year. This game is tough to call, but I suspect OSU's sheer talent pulls it out with their 69-41 edge in blue chips. Heupal is 4 years into his rebuild at Le Grande Orange, and with the record they've had, should have this team in better shape to return to the CFP next year than he does. Their hopes for next year depend heavily on Nico I becoming the generational QB that they think he can be.
In the next round, look for Boise's upperclassmen-laden (28 guys) team to get exposed by PSU's even more experienced and more talented overall team, barring BSU's Jeanty going nuts. The guy is special and could do just that. He has freakishly large arms and legs, and if he played in the SEC or B1G, he would have the Heisman sewed up, regardless of how many snaps Travis Hunter played.
Likewise, transfer-heavy and SOS-weak ASU will get blasted by (more than likely) Texas. ASU is next to last in combined upperclassmen (18 to ND's 12, but ND has a bunch of experienced and talented SO's) and first where you don't want to be first with 20 combined 1st year starters, most of them xfers. Their team numbers look slightly worse than AU across the board for experience - the bye will not help them barring injuries to Texas/Clemson.
Ducks' D has five first year starters, they have the 4th fewest 2-deep upperclassmen with 20, yet only UI and SMU lose more to eligibility this year. The Duck O will have to keep up with (probably) OSU in this game, and next year will be the real measure of Lanning as a coach as he has something of a rebuild. Ducks also have 11 first year players, mostly xfers, and then they lose quite a few of them to eligibility. He needed Offord bad in this recruiting class, which is why both AU and OSU got outbid. I think the more experienced OSU comes out of this game though.
Georgia, if they can put a QB on the field, should handle a young ND pretty easily. UGA has only ONE 1st year player starting this year on O, and that's Etienne. They have a very balanced team that played the #1 SOS in all of CFB. Anything less than a MNC should be considered a disappointment for them. Interesting note about UGA's QBs - for all their recruiting prowess, their QB room consists of:
Beck, 4-star and the 234th ranked recruit out of HS.
Stockton, 4-star and the 110th ranked recruit.
Rashada, 4-star and the 44th ranked recruit.
Puglisi, 4-star and the 143rd ranked recruit.
Kirby has clearly taken a cue from Saban and focused on game managers while building talent around them. To an extent, the injury to Beck may not matter all that much because of that philosophy.
So that will leave us with UGA, OSU, Texas and PSU, SEC vs B1G. I'll post another look at the rosters once we get to that point and to see how predicting based on roster experience worked out.
Looking at the other teams, some things jump out:
ASU and especially Indiana look the most like a Lane Kiffen team, with 17 and 18 1st year xfers respectively in their two-deeps, most starting. Of course it helps to play the 62nd and 67th ranked SOS when you have a team like that, it gives them time to gel (for reference, AU had the 19th ranked SOS). ASU's D looks particularly weak, with 13 combined 1st year guys in the D 2-deep. Look for the Texas/Clemson winner to run up the score on them.
Likewise, Indy faces a ND team with more blue chippers, but overall ND is pretty young with 25 TFR and true SO's and only 12 combined upperclassmen (with at least 1 year on campus besides this one). ND is dead last in the CFP in this category. ND faced the 59th SOS. I look for ND to have an up and down game with Indy, as young teams often do, but they will get the W and then get their youth exposed vs UGA, if UGA's BU QB can ball. ND will be back next year though, barring disaster, and they should be much better. ND has a roster now that looks a lot like what AU's will in terms of stars and experience next year, but their SOS is 59th, an advantage AU will never have as long as we are in the SEC.
PSU and SMU could be a better matchup than many think, with two very experienced teams facing off. In fact, by upperclassmen, these are the two most experienced teams in the CFP with 31 for SMU and 30 for PSU. Neither team will be easily rattled, and you saw this with SMU in the title game with Clemson - despite disaster early and late, SMU just wouldn't die until Clemson made a 57 yard FG. That is upperclassmen maintaining their composure in the face of adversity. Having said that, SMU does have 10 1st year xfers to PSU's 4, and PSU has more talent. I think PSU wins this one.
The Clemson-Texas game should also be interesting. Dabo's philosophy really jumps out at you when you look at the numbers here. He has ZERO xfers on the two-deep, the only CFP team in that position. He has 21 TFR + 2nd year guys on the two deep, and 24 upperclassmen. You saw this experience keep counterpunching SMU every time they landed what looked like a haymaker in their game. However, Texas is even more experienced, more talented, and, believe it or not, has the 2nd toughest SOS in the CFP at 20th (Tennessee is next at 28th). Texas has 25 upperclassmen and another 10 2nd year guys. I look for Texas to take this one, but don't underestimate the power of team with all those guys at Clemson who have been together for so long.
Ohio State vs Tennessee pits another two experienced teams. Although Tennessee has more upperclassmen, 28 vs 23, OSU has only seven first year guys in the depth chart and only three of these start. Tenn has 10 new guys with more starters. OSU has the third most 2nd year talent in the CFP, with 14, behind only Clemson (21) and ND (25). Look for all three of these teams to be a threat to be here next year. Tennessee not so much, they lose 17 guys this year. This game is tough to call, but I suspect OSU's sheer talent pulls it out with their 69-41 edge in blue chips. Heupal is 4 years into his rebuild at Le Grande Orange, and with the record they've had, should have this team in better shape to return to the CFP next year than he does. Their hopes for next year depend heavily on Nico I becoming the generational QB that they think he can be.
In the next round, look for Boise's upperclassmen-laden (28 guys) team to get exposed by PSU's even more experienced and more talented overall team, barring BSU's Jeanty going nuts. The guy is special and could do just that. He has freakishly large arms and legs, and if he played in the SEC or B1G, he would have the Heisman sewed up, regardless of how many snaps Travis Hunter played.
Likewise, transfer-heavy and SOS-weak ASU will get blasted by (more than likely) Texas. ASU is next to last in combined upperclassmen (18 to ND's 12, but ND has a bunch of experienced and talented SO's) and first where you don't want to be first with 20 combined 1st year starters, most of them xfers. Their team numbers look slightly worse than AU across the board for experience - the bye will not help them barring injuries to Texas/Clemson.
Ducks' D has five first year starters, they have the 4th fewest 2-deep upperclassmen with 20, yet only UI and SMU lose more to eligibility this year. The Duck O will have to keep up with (probably) OSU in this game, and next year will be the real measure of Lanning as a coach as he has something of a rebuild. Ducks also have 11 first year players, mostly xfers, and then they lose quite a few of them to eligibility. He needed Offord bad in this recruiting class, which is why both AU and OSU got outbid. I think the more experienced OSU comes out of this game though.
Georgia, if they can put a QB on the field, should handle a young ND pretty easily. UGA has only ONE 1st year player starting this year on O, and that's Etienne. They have a very balanced team that played the #1 SOS in all of CFB. Anything less than a MNC should be considered a disappointment for them. Interesting note about UGA's QBs - for all their recruiting prowess, their QB room consists of:
Beck, 4-star and the 234th ranked recruit out of HS.
Stockton, 4-star and the 110th ranked recruit.
Rashada, 4-star and the 44th ranked recruit.
Puglisi, 4-star and the 143rd ranked recruit.
Kirby has clearly taken a cue from Saban and focused on game managers while building talent around them. To an extent, the injury to Beck may not matter all that much because of that philosophy.
So that will leave us with UGA, OSU, Texas and PSU, SEC vs B1G. I'll post another look at the rosters once we get to that point and to see how predicting based on roster experience worked out.
Posted on 12/20/24 at 8:44 am to TigerHornII
Great read.
Posted on 12/20/24 at 8:47 am to TigerHornII
Excellent post.
One recommendation:
Need to find a place to add Kirby sucks.
One recommendation:
Need to find a place to add Kirby sucks.
Posted on 12/20/24 at 8:56 am to SECdragonmaster
Our blue chippers will really start showing up next year and the worst is behind us on that front. Next time we revisit will be after we fire him at some point if you ask me.
Last year we had the number 18 most talented team and I imagine that number jumps big time.
Last year we had the number 18 most talented team and I imagine that number jumps big time.
Posted on 12/20/24 at 9:16 am to TigerHornII
When did we start allowing facts and analysis on our board?
#BringBackTheShitposting
Great read OP
#BringBackTheShitposting
Great read OP
Posted on 12/20/24 at 9:20 am to TigerHornII
quote:
Dabo's philosophy really jumps out at you when you look at the numbers here. He has ZERO xfers on the two-deep, the only CFP team in that position.
Dabo's position is the polar opposite of Kiffin's. In a vacuum, i'd go with Dabo's as it is far better to have "your guys" and have them in your system for multiple years. The reality though is there is a big gamble there. He is hoping that the transfer portal system cools off soon. If he still has transfers out in average numbers, his roster will be harder and harder to keep stocked.
He talks about not wanting to bring in guys that aren't your guys, but that is silly. You still have discretion over the transfers you bring in and get to vet them just like you did the H.S. guys. There is a happy middle ground that he will probably have to get to at some point, as the portal is just needed at this point to help bolster roster shortcomings. Being in the ACC though, it may not be as big of an issue. If he can just get to the playoffs, I doubt their fanbase will care.
Posted on 12/20/24 at 9:23 am to TigerHornII
nice analysis - it will be interesting to see how accurate your predictions turn out
ironically, Dye’s now 4-decade-old observation on TFr players seems archaic
for example, despite their multitude of talented upperclassmen, Bama almost certainly would have been a 5 loss team this season if not for the presence of one 17 year old TFr
ironically, Dye’s now 4-decade-old observation on TFr players seems archaic
for example, despite their multitude of talented upperclassmen, Bama almost certainly would have been a 5 loss team this season if not for the presence of one 17 year old TFr
Posted on 12/20/24 at 9:26 am to FearlessFreep
Good write up and interesting but pretty common place. Look at our basketball team. Quality players with tons of experience.
Posted on 12/20/24 at 9:39 am to TigerHornII
DAMN good analysis!
Posted on 12/20/24 at 11:15 am to TigerHornII
TL:DR
Hugh sucks, amirite?
Hugh sucks, amirite?
Posted on 12/20/24 at 12:31 pm to slacker130
quote:
TL:DR
Hugh sucks, amirite?
Back to our regularly scheduled shitposting......
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