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NFC South - Divisional Race
Posted on 12/12/17 at 11:12 am
Posted on 12/12/17 at 11:12 am
I wanted to start a thread to specifically talk about the NFC south race. There are a lot of different things that can happen. I cannot worry about the wild card spots just yet, so this only revolves around winning the division.
I toyed around with a spreadsheet basically listing all of the potential scenarios for each team over the next 3 weeks. There are 8 different potential outcomes for each team.
I went into this little project thinking that a lot of different things could happen depending on who beats or loses to who and how the tiebreakers would come into play, but after looking at all of it, I came up with the following truths:
1) If ATL wins out, they win the NFCS.
2) If NO wins out, they win the NFCS.
3) If CAR wins out, they need NO to lose 1 game, b/c NO wins head to head tiebreaker.
4) If ATL wins 2 games, then they need NO and CAR to both lose 2 games regardless of who the losses are to for each of the 3 teams.
5) In terms of CAR and NO, NO just needs to win the same number of games as CAR. CAR needs to win 1 more game than NO.
ATL and NO control their own destiny. CAR does not.
If all 3 teams win this weekend, which I think should be the case given the opponents, then ATL cannot win the division without winning out.
I toyed around with a spreadsheet basically listing all of the potential scenarios for each team over the next 3 weeks. There are 8 different potential outcomes for each team.
I went into this little project thinking that a lot of different things could happen depending on who beats or loses to who and how the tiebreakers would come into play, but after looking at all of it, I came up with the following truths:
1) If ATL wins out, they win the NFCS.
2) If NO wins out, they win the NFCS.
3) If CAR wins out, they need NO to lose 1 game, b/c NO wins head to head tiebreaker.
4) If ATL wins 2 games, then they need NO and CAR to both lose 2 games regardless of who the losses are to for each of the 3 teams.
5) In terms of CAR and NO, NO just needs to win the same number of games as CAR. CAR needs to win 1 more game than NO.
ATL and NO control their own destiny. CAR does not.
If all 3 teams win this weekend, which I think should be the case given the opponents, then ATL cannot win the division without winning out.
This post was edited on 12/12/17 at 11:15 am
2
Posted on 12/12/17 at 11:26 am to VinegarStrokes
Kinda got confused by all that but only briefly looked at it. I think the following needs to happen this week:
1) Highest Priority = Win (obvious)
2) Seattle = Lose
I think if Seattle loses (and) GB or DET, it gives all 3 NFC South team wiggle room to get the #5 and #6 spot. If Seattle wins this weekend, I think someone from the NFC south will miss the playoffs (possibly Atlanta).
I think we can afford to lose to NO but it'll make the CAR game truly a must win for the #6 spot, unless SEA or CAR falters more.
1) Highest Priority = Win (obvious)
2) Seattle = Lose
I think if Seattle loses (and) GB or DET, it gives all 3 NFC South team wiggle room to get the #5 and #6 spot. If Seattle wins this weekend, I think someone from the NFC south will miss the playoffs (possibly Atlanta).
I think we can afford to lose to NO but it'll make the CAR game truly a must win for the #6 spot, unless SEA or CAR falters more.
Posted on 12/12/17 at 1:09 pm to DoubleDown
Playoff Scenarios per 538
Scenario #1
- New Orleans wins out (NYJ, ATL, @ TB)
- Atlanta beats TB/CAR, loses @ NO
- Carolina beats GB/TB, loses @ ATL
- Minnesota beats CIN/CHI, loses @ GB
- LA Rams beat SF, lose @ SEA/@ TN
- Seattle beats LAR/ARZ, lose @ DAL
- GB beats MIN/@ DET, lose @ CAR
NFC Playoffs : #1 PHI, #2 MIN, #3 NO, #4 CAR, #5 ATL, #6 SEA (GB, LAR are out)
Scenario #2
- New Orleans wins out (NYJ, ATL, @ TB)
- Atlanta beats TB/CAR, loses @ NO
- Carolina beats TB, loses vs GB/@ ATL
- Minnesota beats CIN/CHI, loses @ GB
- LA Rams beat SF, lose @ SEA/@ TN
- Seattle beats LAR/ARZ, lose @ DAL
- GB wins out (@ CAR, MIN, @ DET)
NFC Playoffs : #1 PHI, #2 MIN, #3 NO, #4 ATL, #5 GB, #6 SEA (CAR, LAR are out)
Scenario #3
- New Orleans wins out (NYJ, ATL, @ TB)
- Atlanta beats TB, loses @ NO/vs CAR
- Carolina beats TB/@ ATL, loses vs GB
- Minnesota beats CIN/CHI, loses @ GB
- LA Rams beat SF, lose @ SEA/@ TN
- Seattle beats LAR/ARZ, lose @ DAL
- GB wins out (@ CAR, MIN, @ DET)
NFC Playoffs : #1 PHI, #2 MIN, #3 NO, #4 CAR, #5 GB, #6 SEA (ATL, LAR are out)
Scenario #4
- New Orleans wins out (NYJ, ATL, @ TB)
- Atlanta beats TB/CAR, loses @ NO
- Carolina beats TB/GB, loses @ ATL
- Minnesota beats CIN/CHI, loses @ GB
- LA Rams beat SF/@ TN, lose @ SEA
- Seattle beats LAR/ARZ, lose @ DAL
- GB wins out (@ CAR, MIN, @ DET)
NFC Playoffs : #1 PHI, #2 MIN, #3 NO, #4 or #5 LAR/CAR, #6 ATL (GB, SEA are out)
Scenario #1
- New Orleans wins out (NYJ, ATL, @ TB)
- Atlanta beats TB/CAR, loses @ NO
- Carolina beats GB/TB, loses @ ATL
- Minnesota beats CIN/CHI, loses @ GB
- LA Rams beat SF, lose @ SEA/@ TN
- Seattle beats LAR/ARZ, lose @ DAL
- GB beats MIN/@ DET, lose @ CAR
NFC Playoffs : #1 PHI, #2 MIN, #3 NO, #4 CAR, #5 ATL, #6 SEA (GB, LAR are out)
Scenario #2
- New Orleans wins out (NYJ, ATL, @ TB)
- Atlanta beats TB/CAR, loses @ NO
- Carolina beats TB, loses vs GB/@ ATL
- Minnesota beats CIN/CHI, loses @ GB
- LA Rams beat SF, lose @ SEA/@ TN
- Seattle beats LAR/ARZ, lose @ DAL
- GB wins out (@ CAR, MIN, @ DET)
NFC Playoffs : #1 PHI, #2 MIN, #3 NO, #4 ATL, #5 GB, #6 SEA (CAR, LAR are out)
Scenario #3
- New Orleans wins out (NYJ, ATL, @ TB)
- Atlanta beats TB, loses @ NO/vs CAR
- Carolina beats TB/@ ATL, loses vs GB
- Minnesota beats CIN/CHI, loses @ GB
- LA Rams beat SF, lose @ SEA/@ TN
- Seattle beats LAR/ARZ, lose @ DAL
- GB wins out (@ CAR, MIN, @ DET)
NFC Playoffs : #1 PHI, #2 MIN, #3 NO, #4 CAR, #5 GB, #6 SEA (ATL, LAR are out)
Scenario #4
- New Orleans wins out (NYJ, ATL, @ TB)
- Atlanta beats TB/CAR, loses @ NO
- Carolina beats TB/GB, loses @ ATL
- Minnesota beats CIN/CHI, loses @ GB
- LA Rams beat SF/@ TN, lose @ SEA
- Seattle beats LAR/ARZ, lose @ DAL
- GB wins out (@ CAR, MIN, @ DET)
NFC Playoffs : #1 PHI, #2 MIN, #3 NO, #4 or #5 LAR/CAR, #6 ATL (GB, SEA are out)
Posted on 12/12/17 at 1:10 pm to SummerOfGeorge
Basically, if we win 2 of the last 3 we are almost 100% sure to get in. It doesn't matter which 2, it just matters that we win 2 of the last 3.
Posted on 12/12/17 at 1:21 pm to SummerOfGeorge
The most probably "beat TB, lose to NO/CAR" playoff scenario
PLAYOFFS
#1 Eagles (14-2) (W @ NYG, W OAK, W DAL)
#2 Vikings (13-3) (W CIN, W @ GB, @ CHI)
#3 Rams (12-4) (W @ SEA, W @ TN, W SF)
#4 Saints (12-4) (W NJY, W ATL, WW @ TB)
#5 Panthers (12-4) (W GB, W TB, W @ ATL)
#6 Falcons (9-7) (W @ TB, L @ NO, L CAR)
OUT
Seahawks (9-7) (L LA, L @ DAL, W ARI)
Cowboys (9-7) (W @ OAK, W SEA, L @ PHI)
Lions (8-8) (W CHI, L @ CIN, W GB)
Packers (8-8) (L @ CAR, L MIN, W @ DET)
The biggest games for us down stretch outside of our own are
Week 15
Seahawks vs Rams
Panthers vs Packers
Week 16
Packers vs Vikings
Bengals vs Lions
Cowboys vs Seahawks
Week 17
Lions vs Packers
Eagles vs Cowboys
PLAYOFFS
#1 Eagles (14-2) (W @ NYG, W OAK, W DAL)
#2 Vikings (13-3) (W CIN, W @ GB, @ CHI)
#3 Rams (12-4) (W @ SEA, W @ TN, W SF)
#4 Saints (12-4) (W NJY, W ATL, WW @ TB)
#5 Panthers (12-4) (W GB, W TB, W @ ATL)
#6 Falcons (9-7) (W @ TB, L @ NO, L CAR)
OUT
Seahawks (9-7) (L LA, L @ DAL, W ARI)
Cowboys (9-7) (W @ OAK, W SEA, L @ PHI)
Lions (8-8) (W CHI, L @ CIN, W GB)
Packers (8-8) (L @ CAR, L MIN, W @ DET)
The biggest games for us down stretch outside of our own are
Week 15
Seahawks vs Rams
Panthers vs Packers
Week 16
Packers vs Vikings
Bengals vs Lions
Cowboys vs Seahawks
Week 17
Lions vs Packers
Eagles vs Cowboys
This post was edited on 12/12/17 at 1:26 pm
Posted on 12/12/17 at 1:47 pm to SummerOfGeorge
It sure wasn't this complicated last year 
Posted on 12/12/17 at 1:51 pm to SummerOfGeorge
NO and CAR cannot be seeds 3 and 4 together like several of those scenarios predict.
Posted on 12/12/17 at 2:02 pm to VinegarStrokes
quote:
NO and CAR cannot be seeds 3 and 4 together like several of those scenarios predict.
Yea I just rolled down by record and any tiebreakers I knew off the top of my head. Main thing was which teams are in/out.
Posted on 12/13/17 at 8:42 am to VinegarStrokes
I have been thinking about that Saints Talk melt if we manage to beat them on Christmas Eve.
Posted on 12/13/17 at 9:37 am to Eric Nies Grind Time
quote:
I have been thinking about that Saints Talk melt if we manage to beat them on Christmas Eve.
Would be glorious. We have that organization shook over the last few years. They literally believe there's a conspiracy by the NFL to "get them". The NFL makes a frick ton of money of that org. and it's fans. That would be silly. The whole ref thing was bad optics but c'mon. The Saints were 3-1 over the last 15 years with that same ref against ATL. Now they're 3-2. Think I also saw that the Saints are 2-0 on this season (now 2-1) where he was the down judge.
Sounds more like he's pro Saints by my math.
Bunch of flat earth idiots if you ask me.
Posted on 12/13/17 at 2:15 pm to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
Basically, if we win 2 of the last 3 we are almost 100% sure to get in. It doesn't matter which 2, it just matters that we win 2 of the last 3.
I think the only scenario where we don't get in winning 2 of the last 3 is with SEA and CAR winning out (this obviously means we lose to CAR).
We really need the Rams to beat Seattle this week.
Posted on 12/13/17 at 3:16 pm to hiltacular
Yes, I think if the following 2 things happen this week, ATL is sitting pretty:
1) SEA loses to Rams
2) CAR loses to GB
1) SEA loses to Rams
2) CAR loses to GB
Posted on 12/13/17 at 7:00 pm to DoubleDown
We can actually miss the playoffs if we lose to Carolina and win the other two. It would require Carolina to lose their other two games and at least one other non division winner to win 10 games.
Win Tampa and Carolina and we are guaranteed a spot.
Win Tampa and Carolina and we are guaranteed a spot.
Posted on 12/17/17 at 12:16 pm to Vicks Kennel Club
Per 538, if we beat Tampa and Carolina loses to Green Bay our playoff odds are 83%.
Posted on 12/17/17 at 2:10 pm to SummerOfGeorge
There is nothing I've seen out of this team so far that makes me think we get out of the first round. Not even thinking playoffs right now.
If this team was my kid, I'd have shipped her off to juvey.
If this team was my kid, I'd have shipped her off to juvey.
Posted on 12/17/17 at 3:21 pm to NorthGwinnettTiger
quote:
There is nothing I've seen out of this team so far that makes me think we get out of the first round. Not even thinking playoffs right now. If this team was my kid, I'd have shipped her off to juvey.
I still think there is a 50/50 shot we lose on Monday.
Posted on 12/18/17 at 7:50 am to SummerOfGeorge
This team has not been impressive at all this year. I may be a delusional Homer but that's part of why I have hope. Assuming we get to 10 wins and make playoffs, we could get hot and go on a run. The talent is there. Winning 10 games in this league is hard when you play well. ATL possibly going to win 10 on a meh season.
Posted on 12/18/17 at 10:31 am to retooc
I don't think they're a bad team. I also think a lot of the teams we've played this season are improved. Our only bad loss is to NE and a lot of that was self inflicted wounds (but still a loss).
We lost to Carolina - could've won if Julio had caught the ball in the end zone.
We lost to Minn. - could've also won this one as it was within reach.
The frustrating one was Miami. Had them down 17-0 and lost 20-17. That was the most frustrating one on the season.
We lost to Carolina - could've won if Julio had caught the ball in the end zone.
We lost to Minn. - could've also won this one as it was within reach.
The frustrating one was Miami. Had them down 17-0 and lost 20-17. That was the most frustrating one on the season.
Posted on 12/18/17 at 10:54 am to DoubleDown
We received absolutely no help in the division race this weekend. We can still win the division if we lose tonight, but we'd need Carolina and NO to lose twice (once to us as well as their other game). Regardless, I don't think we can win the division if we lose to either Carolina or New Orleans.
Otherwise, we did get some help in the wild card race. If we lose tonight, the spot is still ours. Tonight is a must if we want to have a little bit of breathing room.
Otherwise, we did get some help in the wild card race. If we lose tonight, the spot is still ours. Tonight is a must if we want to have a little bit of breathing room.
Posted on 12/18/17 at 11:40 am to DoubleDown
Yesterday was a net positive as Green Bay and Seattle were basically eliminated. Would have been nice to toss Dallas in there too, but alas, can't get everything.
Now we are basically down to Carolina/Atlanta/Detroit/Dallas for 2 spots. Ideally we just win the next 3 or 2/3, but if we win 1/3 we need Dallas to lose to Philly or Seattle and Detroit to lose to Green Bay. Seattle is still technically alive too, but just technically.
Definitely not completely out of the question.
Now we are basically down to Carolina/Atlanta/Detroit/Dallas for 2 spots. Ideally we just win the next 3 or 2/3, but if we win 1/3 we need Dallas to lose to Philly or Seattle and Detroit to lose to Green Bay. Seattle is still technically alive too, but just technically.
Definitely not completely out of the question.
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