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re: some numbers

Posted on 9/27/17 at 9:07 pm to
Posted by cubsfan5150
NWA
Member since Nov 2007
17825 posts
Posted on 9/27/17 at 9:07 pm to
Lol, yep. Totally shut us down.
Posted by Maytheporkbewithyou
Member since Aug 2016
13871 posts
Posted on 9/27/17 at 9:38 pm to
quote:

Remember how shitty alabama was when Nutt and Ford coached?


Yes, but we also had Tennessee as a permanent East rival those years and they were still a powerhouse.

The only thing I give Bert credit for is beating UF. Nice to finally get that win.
Posted by BarkRuffalo
Boston, MA
Member since Feb 2014
1206 posts
Posted on 9/28/17 at 5:27 am to
I refuse to be comforted by stats. My butthurt is too deep.
Posted by The Sultan of Swine
Member since Nov 2010
8744 posts
Posted on 9/28/17 at 8:00 am to
Top 30 or not the conference was much stronger under Petrino than it is now. We already played A&M during the Petrino era. Had to play Spurrier-led USCe instead of Mizzou.
Posted by admiralduckwad
Member since Dec 2012
2714 posts
Posted on 9/28/17 at 9:48 am to
don't know where to start on all the responses, but this isn't necessarily about whether the whole conference was harder but more about the overall schedule in general.

Here's some more to think about:
Avg national recruiting ranking for the SEC West for '07-'10(1 year before Petrino to account for actual contributions) was 19.1

Avg national recruiting ranking for the SEC West for '12-'16(1 year before Bielema to account for actual contributions) was 14.3

Also, in terms of who got handed a better or worse situation, the 4 years leading up to Petrino, Arkansas ranked 4.5th on average in the SEC West in recruiting(Nutt's last 4 years) and the 4 years leading up to Bielema, our average SEC West ranking in recruiting was 5.5(with the last 3 years being 6th, 5th, 6th)

In his first 4 years, Bielema played 18 "Top 15" teams and won 4, so 22%
and Petrino played 14 "Top 15" teams and won 3 or 21%
So Bielema had 4 more Top 15's on his schedule but has a slightly better win %


In addition, Bielema played 24 "< Top 75" teams and Petrino played 26

Also noteworthy, that A&M may be down, but as of now they still rank 30th in the '17 rankings with TCU at 16th.


So, believe me, I am right there with being totally frustrated with where we are, especially O-line wise, but just wanted to provide some interesting data on how the strength of schedule has looked and where it is headed. Again, if the wheels fall off and we drop 7 or more games this year, he should go. Statistically, we should win about 7 this year still with a good chance for 9 next year.

Also, if your response is simply, Petrino would have gone 13-0 and never lost to A&M, blah blah blah...Please remind yourself that he is still today dropping games to Pitt and Kentucky with a heisman QB.
Posted by The Sultan of Swine
Member since Nov 2010
8744 posts
Posted on 9/28/17 at 10:01 am to
quote:

Also, in terms of who got handed a better or worse situation, the 4 years leading up to Petrino, Arkansas ranked 4.5th on average in the SEC West in recruiting(Nutt's last 4 years) and the 4 years leading up to Bielema, our average SEC West ranking in recruiting was 5.5(


So essentially the same except another team was added to the division...
Posted by admiralduckwad
Member since Dec 2012
2714 posts
Posted on 9/28/17 at 10:10 am to
quote:

So essentially the same except another team was added to the division...

no, A&M was only counted in the years they were here, 2012, so the awesome Petrino, John L combo went 6th out of 6, 5th out of 6 and 6th out of 7 in those last 3 years....coming off 10 and 11 win seasons....while Petrino was fcking a co-ed
Posted by cubsfan5150
NWA
Member since Nov 2007
17825 posts
Posted on 9/28/17 at 10:21 am to
Well, even with your logic, it's worse, as that new team is now out-recruiting you along with the 4-5 teams that already were.
Posted by STLhog
Dallas, TX
Member since Jan 2015
18827 posts
Posted on 9/28/17 at 10:33 am to
admiralduckwad sucks.

Who let this arse clown in the board?
Posted by admiralduckwad
Member since Dec 2012
2714 posts
Posted on 9/28/17 at 10:36 am to
quote:

Well, even with your logic, it's worse, as that new team is now out-recruiting you along with the 4-5 teams that already were.


Yes, but again it gets better as Ole Miss implodes and we rotate through the weaker East teams. Also if A&M fires Sumlin it most certainly sets them back, just like it already is for LSU.
Posted by STLhog
Dallas, TX
Member since Jan 2015
18827 posts
Posted on 9/28/17 at 11:38 am to
quote:

Also if A&M fires Sumlin it most certainly sets them back, just like it already is for LSU.


Sets them back?

LSU set back? They curb stomped us at home last year with their current coach. What do you think happens at LSU this year?
Posted by Feral
Member since Mar 2012
12679 posts
Posted on 9/28/17 at 12:14 pm to
quote:

Also if A&M fires Sumlin it most certainly sets them back, just like it already is for LSU.


This is complete conjecture rooted in fanboy homerism.

A&M isn't going to suck just because you want them to. They could hire Chip Kelly or they could hire Houston Nutt, but the hire and corresponding impact remain to be seen.
Posted by Razorback Reverend
Member since Dec 2013
24016 posts
Posted on 9/28/17 at 12:35 pm to
quote:

This is complete conjecture rooted in fanboy homerism.


true, but it doesn't negate the argument, hypotheticals set previously.

TY Admiral. Enjoyed reading the stats. Now, we still suck gloriously but you still got me to hang on to the thread of the rope...
Posted by Feral
Member since Mar 2012
12679 posts
Posted on 9/28/17 at 1:51 pm to
Firing a coach doesn't always equate to "setting a program back," especially in the early going.

Auburn wasn't set back in 2013 by firing Chizik. A&M wasn't set back in 2012 by firing Sherman. Florida won the East the year after firing Boom.
Posted by Ronaldo Burgundiaz
NWA
Member since Jan 2012
6745 posts
Posted on 9/28/17 at 1:57 pm to
Why did you select "top 30" of all the available variables? Methinks that particular variable was chosen because it makes the current coach look better than others. Lies, Damn Lies, and Statistics.
Posted by Arksulli
Fayetteville
Member since Aug 2014
26739 posts
Posted on 9/28/17 at 2:35 pm to
quote:

Firing a coach doesn't always equate to "setting a program back," especially in the early going.

Auburn wasn't set back in 2013 by firing Chizik. A&M wasn't set back in 2012 by firing Sherman. Florida won the East the year after firing Boom.




I like to think of it in medical terms.

I had a spider bite on my ankle some years back. Well that sucked.

It developed necrotic tissue to the point I was running a fever and the sore had ruptured and was oozing something horrible. (Note this all happened over just a few days.) That really sucked.

I went to the doctor to get this taken care of and the local anesthesia they used didn't actually numb down as deep as the infection so I actually felt them removing bits of my body with a sharpened blade. That, sucked beyond belief.

I'd still rather have gone through the pain of them digging out diseased parts then have left them there.

The thing is you can turn your eyes and squint and make damn near anything seem endurable. At some point you have to realize, its time to get out the scalpel and remove the dead tissue. We are in year 5 of the Bert experience and he's posting records that we have to go back to the 40's and 50's to match. We have tilted our heads and squinted as much as can be done.

If he doesn't improve dramatically this year then why bring him back? Better the agony of cutting him away then letting this fester.

If there is a pain in the setback of getting a new coach... is the program healthier afterwards? If so... better a little pain now then a slow, lingering, death after.
Posted by admiralduckwad
Member since Dec 2012
2714 posts
Posted on 9/28/17 at 3:01 pm to
quote:

Why did you select "top 30" of all the available variables?


i did top 15 too and it still turned out better for Bert
I honestly picked at random.
Name your cut-off and I'll re-sort
Posted by admiralduckwad
Member since Dec 2012
2714 posts
Posted on 9/28/17 at 3:08 pm to
quote:

Firing a coach doesn't always equate to "setting a program back," especially in the early going. Auburn wasn't set back in 2013 by firing Chizik. A&M wasn't set back in 2012 by firing Sherman. Florida won the East the year after firing Boom.


it definitely doesn't if the predecessor turned in 2 top 10 recruiting classes, you luck into a once in a generation talent like Manziel or reside in shtty division. Unless there is a Manziel on this team, im crossing all 3 of these off for us, but maybe A&M is chalk full of them.

But sometimes it does. See Spurrier leaving because Florida fans were getting fed up with just 9-10 win seasons. Or Fulmer at Tenn. or Nebraska's constant boom/bust after they fire 70%+ coaches

Also, id point out there's a huge selective memory bias in saying we should have gone 13-0 in 2010 when we lucked by Miss St in double OT or how about having to come back in the 4Q against Vandy in 2011, in addition to barely escaping Texas A&M that year?
Posted by Arkansasrazorback
Member since May 2010
9299 posts
Posted on 9/28/17 at 5:01 pm to
Our permanent crossover opponent from the East under Petrino was top ten South Carolina. Our crossover opponent during fatty's tenure has been godawful Missouri and he's 1-2 against them. Do you really think Petrino's teams playing Vandy twice accounts for the enormous discrepancy in conference success? Or does the fact that Bielema had to play a murderer's row of Toledo, Rutgers, and Texas Tech OOC account for the enormous overall record discrepancy?
Posted by admiralduckwad
Member since Dec 2012
2714 posts
Posted on 9/28/17 at 5:12 pm to
quote:

Do you really think Petrino's teams playing Vandy twice accounts for the enormous discrepancy in conference success? Or does the fact that Bielema had to play a murderer's row of Toledo, Rutgers, and Texas Tech OOC account for the enormous overall record discrepancy?


I don't know what to tell you...
Bielema played more top 15, top 25, and top 30 teams in his first four years than petrino did. It's pretty straightforward.

In the last 2 years his win % vs those teams is equal or better than petrino. It's just numbers.

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