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SOGa+ College Football Rankings & Picks - Week 7
Posted on 10/9/23 at 11:26 am
Posted on 10/9/23 at 11:26 am
Had a faulty valve in the formulas last week that was underrepresenting pts per drive on offense in the offense formula, which is kind of an important feature.
Regardless, fixed now.
Regardless, fixed now.
This post was edited on 10/9/23 at 11:51 am
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Posted on 10/9/23 at 11:35 am to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
Had a faulty valve in the formulas last week that was underrepresenting pts per drive on offense in the offense formula, which is kind of an important feature.
Posted on 10/9/23 at 11:37 am to Roll Tide Ravens
Posted on 10/9/23 at 11:42 am to SummerOfGeorge
Posted on 10/9/23 at 11:44 am to SummerOfGeorge
Offense is slowly improving. If they can be borderline top 10 the rest of the way we're cooking, but I feel like the OL is just a lost cause. If they run block well pass blocking is a disaster. If they pass block well, they commit half a dozen drive killing procedural penalties. If they don't commit penalties they can't run block. It's always something, and halfway through the season it's hard to see them playing one complete game, much less stringing together several.
Posted on 10/9/23 at 11:47 am to Robot Santa
quote:
Offense is slowly improving. If they can be borderline top 10 the rest of the way we're cooking, but I feel like the OL is just a lost cause. If they run block well pass blocking is a disaster. If they pass block well, they commit half a dozen drive killing procedural penalties. If they don't commit penalties they can't run block. It's always something, and halfway through the season it's hard to see them playing one complete game, much less stringing together several.
Agree - we've found a formula, and we've found some secondary formulas to use when one isn't working. But you are also right about the offensive line. They are the embodiment of post-2020 Alabama football right now (while the other units seem to be shaking it off). As you said, they've done all 3 things (pass block, run block, discipline) extremely well at some point this year.........but everytime they do one well they absolutely collapse in one or both of the others.
This post was edited on 10/9/23 at 11:48 am
Posted on 10/9/23 at 12:07 pm to SummerOfGeorge
Watching literally everyone else on the team start to step up while the OL is spinning their wheels is so fricking annoying. This team could really go on a tear if we just get average OL play over the next two months. I wish I was confident we'd get it.
Posted on 10/9/23 at 12:10 pm to Robot Santa
quote:
Watching literally everyone else on the team start to step up while the OL is spinning their wheels is so fricking annoying. This team could really go on a tear if we just get average OL play over the next two months. I wish I was confident we'd get it.
The fact that they were great in non-3rd and long pass pro on Saturday.........but kept getting in 3rd and long situations.......because they kept getting pre-snap penalties.
Posted on 10/9/23 at 12:35 pm to Robot Santa
quote:
This team could really go on a tear if we just get average OL play over the next two months. I wish I was confident we'd get it.
Any opinions on how the OLine played (better or worse) once Dalcourt was injured and left the game? I didn't get to watch and can't tell much from the highlights, but everyone in the game thread seemed like they fared a lot better with the new lineup.
Posted on 10/9/23 at 12:42 pm to Marktastic86
quote:
Any opinions on how the OLine played (better or worse) once Dalcourt was injured and left the game? I didn't get to watch and can't tell much from the highlights, but everyone in the game thread seemed like they fared a lot better with the new lineup.
Honestly, if you remove all the pre-snap penalties, I think the OL played a pretty decent ballgame. There aren't many if any OLs in college football that are going to block A&M effectively in 3rd and longs. But we held up consistently in the pass rush on 1st and 2nd downs, and we weren't great in the run game but we weren't horrid (RBs : 18 runs, 54 yards, 3.0 YPA). We definitely ran it better in the 2nd half in the spot times we ran it.
However......the pre-snap penalties did happen, they are part of the game and they directly led to the catastrophic 3rd and long sacks.
This post was edited on 10/9/23 at 12:44 pm
Posted on 10/9/23 at 12:47 pm to SummerOfGeorge
Believe it or not we can fix the penalty issues. The overweight thing we can’t but can do what we do best and nothing else. We can win with this team. They have a mojo.
Posted on 10/9/23 at 12:47 pm to SummerOfGeorge
2 of the last ones were questionable as hell lol
Posted on 10/9/23 at 12:48 pm to HighTide_ATL
The pass blocking improvement has been lights out since the USF debacle. They've been very, very good.
Posted on 10/9/23 at 2:09 pm to SummerOfGeorge
The penalties were obviously a bit much, but they won’t face another environment like that until JH. We honestly don’t need a truly complete game out of the OL until facing UGA in Atl (can’t be horrible in these SEC games, but probably don’t have to be mistake free either). If they can figure out the nerves and noise in big games and Milroe doesn’t gift the opponent double digits like he did in the Texas game, we should win out.
I’m guessing the OL will have to be at ~75% “completeness” to overcome JH voodoo, and about ~90-95% to give us a chance in Atl.
The season is fun again though, and we definitely owe UT and LSU double digit murderball losses. So hoping the OL’s desire to dominate even lesser opponents gets stronger as the season goes on. Would love for us to play keep away with Daniels and only give LSU 3-4 drives per half.
I’m guessing the OL will have to be at ~75% “completeness” to overcome JH voodoo, and about ~90-95% to give us a chance in Atl.
The season is fun again though, and we definitely owe UT and LSU double digit murderball losses. So hoping the OL’s desire to dominate even lesser opponents gets stronger as the season goes on. Would love for us to play keep away with Daniels and only give LSU 3-4 drives per half.
Posted on 10/9/23 at 2:31 pm to SummerOfGeorge
SOG 
Besides the obvious Bama related questions, I got a few CFB questions about your model if you don't mind
1. How did Air Force go from being in the 40-50s to now top 10?
I understand that they're wildly efficient in MW play but that close Sam Houston State win has to tank them down, don't you think?
2. How does ST factor in your rankings?
3. Do you have any team that you believe will surge up the rankings by the end of the year?
Besides the obvious Bama related questions, I got a few CFB questions about your model if you don't mind
1. How did Air Force go from being in the 40-50s to now top 10?
I understand that they're wildly efficient in MW play but that close Sam Houston State win has to tank them down, don't you think?
2. How does ST factor in your rankings?
3. Do you have any team that you believe will surge up the rankings by the end of the year?
This post was edited on 10/9/23 at 2:34 pm
Posted on 10/9/23 at 2:47 pm to WeWillFly
I don’t think our OL does a very good job of getting to the 2nd level and picking up LBs on run plays. Quite pathetic actually IMO. I think we might be too big to do that. Our RBs aren’t elite ( or at least the ones we are playing) so that hurts too IMO.
I also think we are better than people think in pass pro.The RBs are pretty bad in pass pro and Milroe gets himself in trouble a lot of times.
I also think we are better than people think in pass pro.The RBs are pretty bad in pass pro and Milroe gets himself in trouble a lot of times.
This post was edited on 10/9/23 at 2:49 pm
Posted on 10/9/23 at 3:38 pm to SummerOfGeorge
While stats are interesting and I admire and appreciate your mind for analytics and pretty graphs, I can’t help but wonder what Coach Bryant - or for that matter Mike Leach with a napkin for a call sheet on the sideline - would have to say about this. My guess: “Just do your job and whip your man.”
Posted on 10/9/23 at 4:09 pm to SummerOfGeorge
A lot of information & a lot of work to gather and break down.
Much appreciated, SOG.
Much appreciated, SOG.
Posted on 10/9/23 at 6:18 pm to Marktastic86
Roberts replacing Dalcourt had Two pre-snap penalties on one driver. Apart from that I think he did very well. Didn’t let anybody through his turnstile that I saw.
Posted on 10/9/23 at 6:27 pm to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
think the OL played a pretty decent ballgame.
I agree, especially considering the upgrade in who we played Saturday.
The pass protection was pretty damn good, esp in the 2nd half- other than the blitz that almost broke Milroe in half. There are some very fixable things like the low snaps - should give Jalen another second, plus he doesn’t have to re-focus downfield. Which hopefully makes him more comfortable in the pocket. Still think more crossing routes and quick slants would help too.
As far as the run blocking…that’s perplexing. I think the extra weight is part of the problem, you could see that in 74 trying to trap block.
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