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re: OT: Alabama Coronavirus Thread (see link in OP for case numbers and death totals in AL)
Posted on 3/29/20 at 6:31 pm to JustGetItRight
Posted on 3/29/20 at 6:31 pm to JustGetItRight
quote:
If New York's current test replicates the same results, that's pretty much game over for the national lockdown.
Then why was it just extended another 3 weeks
Posted on 3/29/20 at 6:45 pm to TidalSurge1
I'm hoping this drug is effective but I think we are good bit away from mass use of the drug if it works. This is another article from France24 from today.
French expert says second study shows malaria drug helps fight coronavirus
I'm hoping we get some research showing this is effective against more severe cases in the future and people are taken this under a physician's supervision if they are choosing to try this medication.
French expert says second study shows malaria drug helps fight coronavirus
quote:
The controversial French professor who believes the anti-malaria drug chloroquine can help beat the coronavirus, has claimed that a new study he has conducted confirms its "efficiency" at combatting the virus.
But several other scientists and critics of microbiologist Didier Raoult, who heads the infectious diseases department of La Timone hospital in Marseille, were quick to cast doubt upon his findings.
They said the testing was not carried out in a controlled study and that the results were purely "observational".
Dr Raoult, whose theory has been taken up by US President Donald Trump, said his new study of 80 patients showed that four out of five of those treated with the drug had "favourable" outcomes.
He had earlier reported that after treating 24 patients for six days with hydroxychloroquine and the antibiotic azithromycin, the virus disappeared in all but a quarter of them.
The research has not yet been peer reviewed nor formally published in a medical journal...
- Results questioned -
Raoult's critics have pointed to problems with the protocol of his testing and worrying side effects of the drug.
Fakemed, a group of scientists against fake news in health, lambasted the 68-year-old professor.
After Raoult released his latest findings on the internet over the weekend, Professor Francois Balloux of University College, London, tried to dampen talk that the drug could be a silver bullet.
"No, (this is) not 'huge' I'm afraid," he said on Twitter.
"This is an observational study (i.e. not controlled) following 80 patients with fairly mild symptoms. The majority of patients recover form #COVID19 infection, with or without #Hchloroquine and #Azithromycin treatment."
Statistician Tim Morris of the university's clinical trials unit was even more scathing.
"If hydroxychloroquine turns out to be useful," he tweeted, "it's a shame that this group will be praised as heroes and prophets instead of held to account for the misinformation and self-promotion they've been churning out at a critical time."
Chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine, which is often sold as Plaquenil, have been hailed as a potential "gamechangers" by Trump, but US government experts are as yet unconvinced, with Dr Anthony Fauci, the head of the US National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, calling the results so far "anecdotal".....
- Fears of shortages -
Fears have also being raised that stockpiling of the drug will deprive people who are already being treated with it for malaria, lupus and certain types of arthritis.
Dr Philippe Gautret, who was part of the team behind Raoult's latest findings, admitted that they only used the combination of drugs on "patients who had not been showing signs of being seriously ill after admission" to the hospital.
"Our strategy was precisely to treat them at that stage to stop the disease getting to a more serious stage," he told AFP.
"A doctor can and must think like a doctor and not like a methodological researcher," Raoult wrote in an article for the French Le Monde daily, defending his methods.
According to his latest study, 65 of the 80 patients treated improved and were discharged from hospital in an average of less than five days. One patient aged 74 was still in intensive care and another aged 86 died.
But his critics say such results were fairly typical of the virus.
Two Chinese studies have shown that "10 days after the start of symptoms, 90 percent of people who have a moderate form (of the disease) have a controlled viral load," epidemiologist Dominique Costagliola, of the French health research institute Inserm, told AFP.
The fact that they got these results using hydroxychloroquine "does not make the case for its effect," she said.
I'm hoping we get some research showing this is effective against more severe cases in the future and people are taken this under a physician's supervision if they are choosing to try this medication.
This post was edited on 3/29/20 at 7:14 pm
Posted on 3/29/20 at 6:48 pm to MoarKilometers
quote:
Then why was it just extended another 3 weeks
Um, because New York’s test is just starting and will take at least 2-3 weeks to have so much as a hint to how it is going
What I am saying is that there is now a rapid result point of care test rolling out. If this treatment also proves as successful most of the country can go back to life in a few weeks. Maybe before the end of April, maybe a little later but far sooner than the months and months being forecast by some folks.
This post was edited on 3/29/20 at 8:06 pm
Posted on 3/29/20 at 6:53 pm to Carlton
quote:
I'm hoping we get some research showing this is effective against more severe cases in the future
Yep. NewYork will tell a lot more.
Posted on 3/29/20 at 7:04 pm to Carlton
Yeah. I'd take anything Didier Raoult says with a grain of salt.
Posted on 3/29/20 at 8:04 pm to JustGetItRight
Trump keeps touting an unproven coronavirus treatment. It’s now being tested on thousands in New York (Washington Post)
New York Starts New Experimental Drug Therapies to Treat COVID-19: Here’s What We Know (NBC NY) -- Pretty informative article.
New York Starts New Experimental Drug Therapies to Treat COVID-19: Here’s What We Know (NBC NY) -- Pretty informative article.
This post was edited on 3/29/20 at 8:32 pm
Posted on 3/29/20 at 10:09 pm to JustGetItRight
quote:
Um, because New York’s test is just starting and will take at least 2-3 weeks to have so much as a hint to how it is going
So they'd have info before the previous easter roundabout guideline, yet blindly tacked on several more weeks to the quarantine. We'd be ending day 5 of the trial, if I read Tuesday as the start date being correct. They should be rolling out hundreds of cured patients any day now, IF the anecdotal evidence this was based on is accurate. Instead we're getting prepped for mass casualties. Consider me suspicious.
Posted on 3/29/20 at 10:50 pm to TidalSurge1
Posted on 3/30/20 at 1:17 am to MoarKilometers
quote:
Then why was it just extended another 3 weeks
Because the number of cases requiring hospitalization is going to grow for a while. If the chloroquine can get people out of the hospital quick enough to avoid them being overwhelmed by the big wave, then you'll see the lockdown eased.
Posted on 3/30/20 at 2:02 am to CrimsonShadow
I dearly hope the drug is effective. We need to get back to normal. The small businesses desperately need to open their doors again.
Posted on 3/30/20 at 6:11 am to Commander Data
quote:
Germany has almost twice as many vacant intensive care (ICU) beds as Italy‘s entire number of ICU beds, the country's health minister Jens Spahn said in an interview with Germany‘s public broadcaster ZDF.
Germany has the highest number of ICU beds in Europe and is looking to double that number, Spahn said.
“Around half of Germany’s intensive care beds are vacant over the whole of Germany. We are preparing ourselves as best we can for what might happen next,“ Spahn said.
“And if I may add this: In Germany there are almost twice as many intensive care beds vacant as Italy has intensive care beds in total.”
Germany has among the highest number of coronavirus cases worldwide, but a fairly low death toll so far. German virologists believe that is the result of early and extensive testing as well as the widespread availability of intensive care capacities. Patients from hard hit European countries are being flown to Germany for treatment.
This post was edited on 3/30/20 at 6:12 am
Posted on 3/30/20 at 6:18 am to Snout Spout
quote:
Trump administration sent protective medical gear to China while he minimized the virus threat to US
quote:
(CNN) - Our doctors and nurses are in desperate need of masks, gloves and other personal protective equipment (PPE) to protect themselves from contracting the coronavirus while treating those who are ill. Some of them are trying to find it on eBay while others are pleading for help on social media.
The situation is so dire one New Jersey doctor described it as "sending medical professionals like lambs to the slaughterhouse."
Concerns about a dwindling supply of PPE are not new. Back on February 7, the World Health Organization sounded alarm bells about "the limited stock of PPE," noting demand was 100 times higher than normal for this equipment.
Yet the same day as the WHO warning, the Trump administration announced that it was transporting to China nearly 17.8 tons (more than 35,000 pounds) of "masks, gowns, gauze, respirators, and other vital materials." As Secretary of State Mike Pompeo noted in the press release announcing this shipment, "These donations are a testament to the generosity of the American people."
Americans indeed are a generous people. We want to help those in need. And at the time these medical supplies were shipped, more than 28,000 people in China were infected with nearly 600 deaths attributed to the virus. But how could Trump allow tons of vital medical equipment Americans to be transported to another country in February if, as he has claimed since January, he fully understood the risk the United States was facing from the virus.
As a reminder, the first known case of coronavirus case on US soil was confirmed by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention on January 21, 2020.
The next day, Trump was asked about the virus while attending the World Economic Forum annual meeting in Davos. CNBC anchor Joe Kernen asked the President: "The CDC has identified a case of coronavirus in Washington state ... have you been briefed by the CDC?" to which Trump responded, "I have." Kernen continued, "Are there worries about a pandemic at this point?" Trump declared: "No. Not at all. And — we're — we have it totally under control. It's one person coming in from China, and we have it under control. It's — going to be just fine."
Trump again on January 30 assured Americans he understood the threat posed by the virus and was prepared, stating, "We have it very well under control," adding, "We're working very closely with China and other countries, and we think it's going to have a very good ending for us ... that I can assure you."
On February 5, US lawmakers were pressing the Trump administration on its preparedness for a possible widespread coronavirus outbreak in the US, with some slamming the administration's failure to communicate with the states about how the White House would be addressing it.
By February 6, the United States had 12 known confirmed cases in Wisconsin, California, Washington, Arizona, Massachusetts and Illinois — and with mass testing not yet begun the number of infected was likely far higher.
It was in this climate that the Trump administration announced its aid transport to China. Pompeo bragged on Twitter that the administration had "coordinated with U.S. organizations to transport" goods to China including, "Personal protective equipment."
Now compare that to March 18, when Trump defiantly told governors pressing him to help their states obtain similar equipment: "The federal governments not supposed to be out there buying vast amounts of items and then shipping," adding, "We're not a shipping clerk."
Just three days after these goods arrived in China, Trump again bragged that the United States was in "great shape" when it came to the virus. He then added to assure an increasingly concerned America about Covid-19, "You know, a lot of people think that goes away in April with the heat — as the heat comes in," reiterating, "Typically, that will go away in April."
I won't be so glib as to ask what happened to Trump's "America First" policy. That's too easy. But the fact Trump claimed to comprehend the risk posed by the coronavirus and then shipped nearly 18 tons of equipment that includes much of what our medical staff are now pleading for means either he was lying or is dangerously incompetent. You can pick which one you believe. But the results are the same for our valiant health care workers who are working tirelessly to save lives from Covid-19.
Posted on 3/30/20 at 6:23 am to Snout Spout
"I don't take responsibility at all."
This post was edited on 3/30/20 at 6:24 am
Posted on 3/30/20 at 6:44 am to Commander Data
I’ve seen some reports from docs on the front line using the drugs. It’s not a magic bullet. There seems to be some benefits but if you’re critical, it’s not going to allow you to get up and walk out in 5 days. Still very little hard data/evidence but anecdotal/observational reports that it does something. Best I can tell from my own crude analysis of the reports, it seems to have the best chance of helping you if you are sick but not yet sick enough to require hospitalization with supportive care. If you are already to the point of being ventilated, it doesn’t seem to do much. But (again, personal analysis by a pharmacist who hasn’t done drug information analysis in 30 years since pharmacy school) that would make sense since the hydroxychloroquine/azithromycin combo seems to help the body clear the virus before the worst damage is done. By the time you get to the point you need ventilation, your prognosis is really poor with organs failing including the lungs due to the inflammatory response and cytokine storms. I’ve seen estimates that ventilated patients have a 85% mortality rate.
This shite really does have several interesting but scary parallels to the 1918 Spanish flu. They both seem to kill in the same way: your body’s immune system and defenses react so violently to this pathogen, you literally destroy yourself trying to fight it. Cytokine storms that damage and destroy multiple organ systems, inflammatory response out of control, severe lung damage from diffuse, ground glass pneumonia on x-ray, just really nasty stuff. The initial wave of Spanish flu was similar to COVID19 in that it was just a really bad flu that hit the expected populations hard; the elderly, the people with underlying conditions,etc. Then in the spring and summer months, the flu mutated slightly to become this deadly version that turned a young, healthy person’s immune system into a suicide machine. The inflammatory response would kill the person, similar to what COVID19 does. The second wave of the Spanish flu was a bloodbath. We’re fortunate that this bug appears to be pretty stable and is not rapidly mutating as it could become far worse.
This shite really does have several interesting but scary parallels to the 1918 Spanish flu. They both seem to kill in the same way: your body’s immune system and defenses react so violently to this pathogen, you literally destroy yourself trying to fight it. Cytokine storms that damage and destroy multiple organ systems, inflammatory response out of control, severe lung damage from diffuse, ground glass pneumonia on x-ray, just really nasty stuff. The initial wave of Spanish flu was similar to COVID19 in that it was just a really bad flu that hit the expected populations hard; the elderly, the people with underlying conditions,etc. Then in the spring and summer months, the flu mutated slightly to become this deadly version that turned a young, healthy person’s immune system into a suicide machine. The inflammatory response would kill the person, similar to what COVID19 does. The second wave of the Spanish flu was a bloodbath. We’re fortunate that this bug appears to be pretty stable and is not rapidly mutating as it could become far worse.
This post was edited on 3/30/20 at 6:52 am
Posted on 3/30/20 at 6:52 am to Commander Data
quote:
. We need to get back to normal. The small businesses desperately need to open their doors again.
Dead people can't work and can't buy stuff.
For us to "get back to work," first we're going to need the availability of widespread testing and titer detection to determine who has developed immunity, and is therefore safe to return to work.
Posted on 3/30/20 at 7:43 am to Snout Spout
830 cases (same as last night), but now we have 7 confirmed deaths.
Posted on 3/30/20 at 7:47 am to pvilleguru
The three new deaths are in Tallapoosa, Mobile, and Morgan Counties.
Posted on 3/30/20 at 7:56 am to pvilleguru
Hopkins is showing 10 deaths on their map.
Chambers 3
Lee 2
Baldwin 1
Jackson 1
Lauderdale 1
Madison 1
Mobile 1
Chambers 3
Lee 2
Baldwin 1
Jackson 1
Lauderdale 1
Madison 1
Mobile 1
Posted on 3/30/20 at 8:28 am to pvilleguru
quote:
"I don't take responsibility at all."
Mission Accomplished 2: It's Just The Flu Boogaloo
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