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re: OT: Alabama Coronavirus Thread (see link in OP for case numbers and death totals in AL)

Posted on 3/25/20 at 10:34 pm to
Posted by 1BamaRTR
In Your Head Blvd
Member since Apr 2015
24749 posts
Posted on 3/25/20 at 10:34 pm to
We are also testing (and not lying) at a much rate than pretty much any really highly populated country right now.
Posted by Bobby OG Johnson
Member since Apr 2015
32900 posts
Posted on 3/25/20 at 10:37 pm to
quote:

(and not lying)


Yeah I have a hard time believing what China is reporting.
Posted by 1BamaRTR
In Your Head Blvd
Member since Apr 2015
24749 posts
Posted on 3/25/20 at 10:45 pm to
Up to 440 now. So in that span of a day the cases increased by 154
Posted by Roll Tide Ravens
Birmingham, AL
Member since Nov 2015
51387 posts
Posted on 3/25/20 at 11:06 pm to
Wow a late night update. They haven’t done that yet.

198 new confirmed cases just today.
This post was edited on 3/25/20 at 11:07 pm
Posted by East Coast Band
Member since Nov 2010
66950 posts
Posted on 3/25/20 at 11:27 pm to
23 counties at the moment have no official cases.

My Sumter county pick still hanging on.

Looks like it will be some South Alabama county that will be the last one to get an official case, though
This post was edited on 3/25/20 at 11:27 pm
Posted by Snout Spout
Somewhere in the 17th century
Member since Jul 2015
977 posts
Posted on 3/26/20 at 12:02 am to
5
quote:

We are also testing (and not lying) at a much rate than pretty much any really highly populated country right now.


Germany?
Posted by 1BamaRTR
In Your Head Blvd
Member since Apr 2015
24749 posts
Posted on 3/26/20 at 12:06 am to
Their population is significantly smaller compared to the US. My point was we are seeing such a massive increase compared to everyone else (probably will have most in the world soon) because it’s a combination of a very large population and way more (non-fudged) testing numbers. Every other country is much smaller, lying (China and Russia), or not really testing (India).
This post was edited on 3/26/20 at 12:08 am
Posted by Snout Spout
Somewhere in the 17th century
Member since Jul 2015
977 posts
Posted on 3/26/20 at 3:59 am to
83 million. Largest population in Europe. As large as the U.S., no, but not a "small country."

They do, however, have far more hospital beds and nurses per capita than the U.S.
This post was edited on 3/26/20 at 4:00 am
Posted by JustGetItRight
Member since Jan 2012
16161 posts
Posted on 3/26/20 at 7:04 am to
quote:

It's part of the Coronavirus Act. DHR has been tasked the distribution of additional SNAP benefits. They did something similar back in the spring of 2011 after the tornado outbreak. Work requirements have also been suspended for the summer. No Alabama-specific link yet, but I'm sure it'll be all over the news soon.


Ok, then Montgomery didn’t approve it. That is what caught my eye.
Posted by The Spleen
Member since Dec 2010
38865 posts
Posted on 3/26/20 at 8:54 am to
quote:

y point was we are seeing such a massive increase compared to everyone else (probably will have most in the world soon) because it’s a combination of a very large population and way more (non-fudged) testing numbers.



And because of our late response.
Posted by TideCPA
Member since Jan 2012
13939 posts
Posted on 3/26/20 at 8:55 am to
quote:

83 million. Largest population in Europe. As large as the U.S., no, but not a "small country."

They do, however, have far more hospital beds and nurses per capita than the U.S.


And yet, as of this morning, have had an almost identical number of coronavirus deaths per capita as the US.
Posted by Snout Spout
Somewhere in the 17th century
Member since Jul 2015
977 posts
Posted on 3/26/20 at 9:09 am to
quote:


And yet, as of this morning, have had an almost identical number of coronavirus deaths per capita as the US.




Germany's current death rate is 1/176.5 patients. The U.S.'s current death rate is 1/66.35 patients.

It's not even debatable that Germany's death rate has been lower thus far than the U.S., Italy, or others.

Do we have to refuse to admit that the U.S. is not the best at everything?
Posted by biclops
Member since Oct 2011
6187 posts
Posted on 3/26/20 at 9:15 am to
quote:

(See totals by county - AL Dept. of Public Health)


ADPH took down the damn chart! WTF???
Posted by TideCPA
Member since Jan 2012
13939 posts
Posted on 3/26/20 at 9:26 am to
quote:

Germany's current death rate is 1/176.5 patients. The U.S.'s current death rate is 1/66.35 patients.

It's not even debatable that Germany's death rate has been lower thus far than the U.S., Italy, or others.

Do we have to refuse to admit that the U.S. is not the best at everything?


I said deaths per capita. You can't reliably compare case fatality rates between the US and Germany when Germany has had a more robust testing regime to date. If the US is predominantly testing hospitalized and highly symptomatic patients and Germany is testing more broadly, of course Germany will have a lower CFR, because their denominator will include far more asymptomatic cases.

Deaths per capita is a better measure unless and until the country-to-country disparity in testing is resolved.
This post was edited on 3/26/20 at 9:29 am
Posted by biclops
Member since Oct 2011
6187 posts
Posted on 3/26/20 at 9:29 am to
quote:

I said deaths per capita. You can't reliably compare case fatality rates between the US and Germany when Germany has had a more robust testing regime to date. If the US is predominantly testing hospitalized and highly symptomatic patients and Germany is testing more broadly, of course Germany will have a lower CFR, because their denominator will include far more asymptomatic cases.


But if looking at deaths per capita, you really also have to consider how long each country has been exposed. (if you did that in your OP, I apologize for being lazy)
This post was edited on 3/26/20 at 9:29 am
Posted by Robot Santa
Member since Oct 2009
46216 posts
Posted on 3/26/20 at 9:29 am to
quote:

I said deaths per capita. You can't reliably compare case fatality rates between the US and Germany when Germany has had a more robust testing regime to date. If the US is predominantly testing hospitalized and highly symptomatic patients and Germany is testing more broadly, of course Germany will have a lower CFR, because their denominator will include far more asymptomatic cases.


And this makes the U.S. look...better?
Posted by TideCPA
Member since Jan 2012
13939 posts
Posted on 3/26/20 at 9:33 am to
quote:

But if looking at deaths per capita, you really also have to consider how long each country has been exposed. (if you did that in your OP, I apologize for being lazy)


Sure, but that becomes less of a factor with each day that goes on. Moreover, Germany's first reported death was on March 9, at which point the US already had 26.
Posted by TideCPA
Member since Jan 2012
13939 posts
Posted on 3/26/20 at 9:35 am to
quote:

And this makes the U.S. look...better?

Who said I'm white knighting for the US? We're worse at testing than Germany, but about equal in actually managing the cases we have. I'd argue the latter is far more important than the former.
Posted by biclops
Member since Oct 2011
6187 posts
Posted on 3/26/20 at 9:37 am to
quote:

Sure, but that becomes less of a factor with each day that goes on. Moreover, Germany's first reported death was on March 9, at which point the US already had 26.



Thanks for the info. Makes it much easier to gain useful insight into the situation.
Posted by Roll Tide Ravens
Birmingham, AL
Member since Nov 2015
51387 posts
Posted on 3/26/20 at 9:41 am to
quote:

ADPH took down the damn chart! WTF???

I guess they want us to use their interactive map/dashboard thing. I think they update that more frequently. Up to 449 cases now.
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