re: Official Alabama vs FSU Prediction Thread - Pick Score & Daniel Hill Rushing Yards

Bama 42

FSU. 13

Daniel Hill rushes for an even 100 yds.

For giggles I asked ChatGPT to predict the game. Here is what it said. Let's see how close ChatGPT is!

quote:

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My prediction is **Alabama 34, Florida State 13**.

Alabama enters 2–0 after beating East Carolina 48–10 and Kentucky 45–17. Against Kentucky, Alabama trailed 17–13 at halftime but then completely took over, winning the second half **32–0**. The Tide held Kentucky to only 209 total yards and **1-of-14 on third down**. ([Alabama Athletics][1])

The matchup that stands out most to me is **Florida State's offense against Alabama's defense**. FSU has a legitimate running threat in Ousmane Kromah, who has 231 rushing yards through two games, but Alabama has been allowing only about **33 rushing yards per game**. FSU quarterback Ashton Daniels has thrown for only 327 yards through two games, and FSU's passing offense has struggled to create explosive plays. ([Florida State University][2])

That's particularly important because Florida State's best path is probably to reproduce what it did to Alabama last season, when the Seminoles ran for roughly 230 yards in their **31–17 upset**. I don't see that happening against the Alabama front we've seen so far in 2026. ([OddsShopper][3])

On the other side, Alabama's running game appears substantially better than it was a year ago. The Tide are averaging about **191 rushing yards per game**, Daniel Hill leads the team with 151 yards, and the offensive line looked significantly better as the Kentucky game progressed. Keelon Russell has thrown for 444 yards through two games, so Alabama doesn't need him to throw it 40 times to win this matchup. ([OddsShopper][3])

Florida State also allowed SMU quarterback Kevin Jennings to throw for **430 yards** in its 27–24 loss. FSU actually won the turnover battle 4–1 in that game and **still lost**, which is concerning going into Tuscaloosa. ([Florida State University][4])

The current market is roughly **Alabama -19.5 with a 48.5 total**. That's a huge spread, but it makes sense given what the teams have shown. ([FanDuel][5])

### How I think it plays out

I wouldn't be surprised if Florida State keeps it uncomfortable early. They are coming off a bye, they'll be highly motivated after the SMU loss, and Kromah is good enough to break some runs. Something like **Alabama 10–7 or 13–7** early in the second quarter wouldn't shock me.

But over four quarters, Alabama's defensive front should increasingly take away FSU's running game and force Daniels into obvious passing situations. That's where I think the game changes.

Meanwhile, Alabama should be able to stay patient offensively—Hill and the running backs grind away, Russell hits some intermediate throws and eventually the FSU defense wears down much the way Kentucky did.

**My projection:**

**Halftime:** Alabama 17, Florida State 7
**Third quarter:** Alabama 27, Florida State 10
**Final: Alabama 34, Florida State 13**

I'd put my rough chances at **Alabama 78% / Florida State 22%**. I lean toward **Alabama covering the 19.5**, but only slightly, and I'd lean **under 48.5** with Alabama's defense being the primary reason.

The biggest thing that could make me wrong is **FSU running for 175–200+ yards and forcing multiple Alabama turnovers**. If Alabama keeps FSU under about **125 rushing yards** and doesn't give the Seminoles short fields, I think the Tide win comfortably.

And compared with the Alabama team that lost **31–17 at Florida State last year**, I think this matchup is considerably more favorable to the Tide because the **run defense and Alabama's own running game—the two areas that decided the 2025 game—appear dramatically different so far in 2026**. ([CBS Sports][6])

If you want, I can also do a **full Alabama–FSU matchup simulation with projected stats for Keelon Russell, Daniel Hill, Ashton Daniels, Kromah, total yards, turnovers, and quarter-by-quarter scoring**.

I can also check the **final injury reports and line movement Friday/Saturday and alert you if anything materially changes the prediction**.

[1]: LINK "Football at Kentucky on 9/12/2026 - Game Center - Alabama Athletics"
[2]: LINK "Football at Alabama on 9/19/2026 - Game Center - Florida State University"
[3]: LINK "Florida State vs. Alabama Prediction: Revenge in Tuscaloosa"
[4]: LINK "Football vs SMU on 09/07/2026 - Box Score - Florida State University"
[5]: LINK "Alabama vs Florida State Prediction, Odds, Picks, Best Bets for Week 3 2026"
[6]: LINK "Alabama vs. Florida prediction, picks, odds, spread, where to watch live - CBS Sports"

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Bama 52-7 Hill 77

27-12 bama. 67 yards

Get your picks in while you can.