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re: Off-Topic: Governor’s Race
Posted on 2/16/22 at 2:56 pm to imjustafatkid
Posted on 2/16/22 at 2:56 pm to imjustafatkid
I feel like Tommy Battle would've been a lot more successful running this year rather than 2018. Seems like everyone wants an alternative but no one's willing to vote for them over Ivey. Ivey hasn't been terrible but Alabama could do better and now is absolutely the time to strive for better
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Posted on 2/16/22 at 2:59 pm to Robot Santa
quote:
In which case you'd just become a puppet for one of the two parties. Candidate independence is predicated on financial independence, but the people capable of essentially buying an elected office tend to spend their whole time in that office exploiting it for their own financial gain. 98% of statewide or federal politicians serve their party or themselves.
That’s kind of the intriguing thing about this Burdette guy. On his Facebook page he says he’s limiting big donations to prove that point. Seems like a crazy decision when you’re competing against Ivey, Blanchard, and Tim James but hats off to the guy for trying.
Posted on 2/16/22 at 3:02 pm to FairhopeTider
Yeah but how much of his own money is he spending? That's the real kicker. Actual grassroots fundraising by a decidedly middle class candidate is extremely rare.
Posted on 2/16/22 at 5:00 pm to Bama Bird
quote:
I feel like Tommy Battle would've been a lot more successful running this year rather than 2018.
Absolutely.
quote:
Seems like everyone wants an alternative but no one's willing to vote for them over Ivey.
I am absolutely voting against her in the primary. I am hoping for a runoff, at the very least. If she wins the primary, then there really isn't anyone else to vote for at that point.
This post was edited on 2/16/22 at 5:02 pm
Posted on 2/16/22 at 5:38 pm to imjustafatkid
quote:
A strong candidate could absolutely take her down, and there's still time for one to materialize.
No there isn't unless you think a candidate capable of winning as an independent will emerge.
The deadline to qualify for both the Republican and Democratic primaries was January 28th.
The fields are set and 12 of the 22 races involving statewide offices or congressional seats have effectively been decided due to lack of a primary opponent and no qualified general election opponent in the other party.
Y'all are also wrong about the ability of a candidate to successfully run against Kay. The only way you cut into that approval rating is for her to slip up - which she did badly at the start of Covid but people have forgotten or go after her.
It's getting WAY too late for another covid-like slip and her handlers are just going to run out the clock on the next 90 days.
That leaves going hard after her. Problem with that is that 62% of the voters that cast ballots in the 2018 general election were over 50. I couldn't quickly find a primary breakdown but I guarantee you its even higher there. Old people (full disclosure, I'm 54) vote every time the doors open and attacking someone who comes across as the nice grandma isn't going to play with that crowd.
This post was edited on 2/16/22 at 6:04 pm
Posted on 2/16/22 at 8:43 pm to JustGetItRight
quote:
No there isn't unless you think a candidate capable of winning as an independent will emerge.
I mean one of the candidates has the ability to take her down if they come out with the right campaign. Not that a new candidate is going to come out of nowhere.
Posted on 2/16/22 at 10:22 pm to JustGetItRight
quote:
Problem with that is that 62% of the voters that cast ballots in the 2018 general election were over 50.
Not saying it’s going to be dramatically different, but this year’s GOP primary will have a lot more energy than 2018’s. The Senate race will bring out a lot of voters on it’s own. Also, 2018 GOP primary was an afterthought because most voters were exhausted after the 2016 Presidential Election and 2017 Special Senate Race.
Don’t see Tim James going quietly into the good night either. Ivey’s people might try running out the clock, but there will be a lot of pressure to force her out of her comfort zone.
This post was edited on 2/16/22 at 10:35 pm
Posted on 2/17/22 at 6:36 am to FairhopeTider
quote:
Tim James
This is his 3rd run for Governor. He’s never drawn more than 125,000 votes in the other two races and his best primary finish has been 3rd.
All he’s doing is wasting the family money.
Posted on 2/17/22 at 6:57 am to JustGetItRight
quote:
This is his 3rd run for Governor. He’s never drawn more than 125,000 votes in the other two races and his best primary finish has been 3rd.
True, but I also think he would’ve won in 2010 if it weren’t for that Nick Saban gaffe. He’s a clown but he’s come out pretty strong out of the gate with his ads and he has money. My point is I don’t think he will just stand by and let Ivey coast in like Battle did.
By the way, Kay Ivey just co-signed a letter to Justin Trudeau about truckers. Won’t comment on any other issue but will sign and brag about a pointless letter. She really thinks Alabama voters are stupid.
This post was edited on 2/17/22 at 6:58 am
Posted on 2/17/22 at 8:15 am to Chad4Bama
Have known James and his daddy. Voted for his dad first time. Will never make same mistake again. Would rather have maw maw and that is sad.
Posted on 2/17/22 at 8:43 am to DennyCrane
I played against Tim Jr. in junior high and high school and I swear they paid off the refs a few times.
Posted on 2/17/22 at 9:39 am to FairhopeTider
quote:
He’s a clown but he’s come out pretty strong out of the gate with his ads and he has money. My point is I don’t think he will just stand by and let Ivey coast in like Battle did.
I don't doubt he's going to run aggressive ads and spend money but as of right now Ivey's already outspent him by an almost 4-1 margin and has a significant cash-on-hand (1.9mil vs 1.2mil) advantage.
She can match him ad for ad and then do more. Further, look at his ad - he talks about marxism, genderism, cancel culture. Problem is that every other person in the primary agrees and the electorate knows it.
She's popular so you gotta give them a reason to switch. If it was me, I'd have ads out there showing Ivey closing down "non essential businesses", show the small places empty while Wal-Mart was rocking, and say "Kay said you don't matter. Kay said you couldn't walk on the beach - even if you owned it. Kay said you couldn't get your hair cut. She says different now, but actions speak louder that words. Kay closed your kid's schools. Kay proved she doesn't care about you. She already did it once, don't give her a chance to do it again." Those things have become very unpopular across the political spectrum and virtually all those have now been shown to have been minimally or completely ineffective in slowing Covid. Her only response could be either "I did what everyone else was doing" or "I was wrong." You then paint her as someone without the backbone to act on their own or someone with bad judgement.
IMO it would be a devastating ad (and the point it makes is the very reason I will sit out the race before voting for her) but you won't see it run because, as you said,
quote:
He’s a clown
Posted on 2/17/22 at 10:39 am to imjustafatkid
quote:1) NOBODY goes into office with a chairmanship, and a new person obviously has no seniority, BUT with her acquired relationships from both her current position PLUS Shelby's decades long relationships in Congress, she should be a "rising star" and a candidate for prime committees!
None of these candidates will have "chairmanships and seniority," and those things are a horrible reason to vote someone into office.
2) The reason people vote for senators is to benefit, AND represent the people of their state.
Posted on 2/17/22 at 10:52 am to FairhopeTider
quote:
She really thinks Alabama voters are stupid.
Well she’s not wrong.
Posted on 2/17/22 at 12:59 pm to The Spleen
quote:
Well she’s not wrong.
Based on the current state of government in this country, I'd say the large majority of voters are stupid. Alabama is certainly no exception.
Posted on 2/17/22 at 1:01 pm to JustGetItRight
quote:
She's popular so you gotta give them a reason to switch. If it was me, I'd have ads out there showing Ivey closing down "non essential businesses", show the small places empty while Wal-Mart was rocking, and say "Kay said you don't matter. Kay said you couldn't walk on the beach - even if you owned it. Kay said you couldn't get your hair cut. She says different now, but actions speak louder that words. Kay closed your kid's schools. Kay proved she doesn't care about you. She already did it once, don't give her a chance to do it again." Those things have become very unpopular across the political spectrum and virtually all those have now been shown to have been minimally or completely ineffective in slowing Covid. Her only response could be either "I did what everyone else was doing" or "I was wrong." You then paint her as someone without the backbone to act on their own or someone with bad judgement.
100% this is what someone should be doing.
Posted on 2/17/22 at 1:06 pm to coachcrisp
quote:
1) NOBODY goes into office with a chairmanship, and a new person obviously has no seniority, BUT with her acquired relationships from both her current position PLUS Shelby's decades long relationships in Congress, she should be a "rising star" and a candidate for prime committees!
This is actually more true for Mo Brooks, as he's actually been in DC while she has been in Alabama for a number of years now. Richard Shelby won't be running up to DC to introduce her to people. He's retiring because he doesn't want to be there anymore.
This post was edited on 2/17/22 at 1:08 pm
Posted on 2/17/22 at 5:46 pm to Bolivar Shagnasty
quote:Considering everything that Shelby has done for this state, I'd certainly hope so. We should only be so lucky.
I too think Britt is more of the same. She is Shelby in a skirt.
Ivey's going to win again because her challengers with the most name recognition (Blanchard, Young, James) are all appealing to the same people in similar ways. They're going to split the far-right vote.
Posted on 2/17/22 at 6:06 pm to Chuck Barris
quote:
Ivey's going to win again because her challengers with the most name recognition (Blanchard, Young, James) are all appealing to the same people in similar ways. They're going to split the far-right vote.
There's no way she can get 50% without conservatives (not far-right) voting for her. If she can't get 50%, she probably won't win the runoff for the reasons you stated (actual conservatives would vote for any of the other three over Ivey).
Posted on 2/17/22 at 7:40 pm to imjustafatkid
Bookmark it. There won’t be a runoff.
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