Started By
Message
1
Posted on 9/2/20 at 7:49 am to stomp
quote:
All the 2016 polls from Aug-Nov were close and within the margin of error. Some states Trump won were as close as a tie or Trump +1
A win by one is still a win.
Posted on 9/2/20 at 8:01 am to BamaBo7
quote:
that 80-90% IS WAY OFF. Hell we usually only show up at 30% turn out if your lucky and account for 13% of the population
That 80-90% is actual voters, not percentage of the black population. We'll see if that turns out accurate. It'd be in line with every other recent presidential election that didn't have Obama on the ticket(both of those exceeded 90%).
I absolutely agree with you on how many white liberals have taken over the BLM protests. Like that group of idiots that confronted the lady in a restaurant last week. Those idiots do more harm to the cause they're fighting for than they'll ever admit. The 2 local ones I went to were majority black though, but both of those were back in May.
quote:
I honestly just expect a low turn out..thats just being truthful.
I expect a massive turnout. I know these boards can be a bit of a bubble of conservatism, but I've talked to several people that have never voted before that are fired up to vote Trump out of office. I think there is also a lot of enthusiasm with Trump supporters.
Posted on 9/2/20 at 8:28 am to The Spleen
quote:
I expect a massive turnout. I know these boards can be a bit of a bubble of conservatism, but I've talked to several people that have never voted before that are fired up to vote Trump out of office. I think there is also a lot of enthusiasm with Trump supporters.
There are several communities where I live that are of color and I see more pro-Trump stuff now there then I did in 16. My 10yo son plays competitive soccer and spends 4 days a week outside of his normal team playing for 3 different Latino teams indoor and outdoor that we drive 1 to 2 hours round trip for in heavily dominated Latino communities and there is way more support for Trump there then Biden.
Posted on 9/2/20 at 8:31 am to The Spleen
quote:
I think there is also a lot of enthusiasm with Trump supporters.
Another poster alluded to this regarding Trump supporters don't answers the preelection polls. They just show up and vote. It seems this time around there is even more public support which leads me to believe combined with the silent mass of supporters Trump will win again. And the dems can thank BLM and these protests for a lot of that.
Posted on 9/2/20 at 8:31 am to bamameister
quote:
Then LET HIM SAY IT. Does this dude suddenly use the term "Marxist and BLM" and now needs to lawyer up? You're ridiculously defending a person that was simply having a conversation with me
I’m a busy man so my response time can be very slow.
In terms of what I said was “If” they truly understand what BLM stands for. I don’t know if they do or not. But in any form or fashion did I accuse them of being Marxist, period. But word salad is the latest trend right now so knock yourself out.
It’s their right to march with a BLM banner if they want too, that’s fine. But the optics isn’t the best imo. Doesn’t mean I’m right by any means. I wish nothing but the best for them young men in life outside of football. They have the opportunity to get a highly valued education from a top tier university. They are truly blessed for that.
We all have are priorities and principles in life.Faith, Family, Freedom, Country, Morals and Discipline is mine in that order. Bama football is in the distance, not in a bad way but it doesn’t effect my life in anyway what so ever. It may for some that have their love ones attending the university, that’s different.
I think we all just want the season to start to escape the BS and to get back on the same page of what this forum was designed for. To cheer and brag and bitch about Bama football. It’s entertaining and fun. And the Mods that try to keep things inline do a great job especially over the last few months. We should all thank them for job that doesn’t pay nothing for putting up with our bitching and complaining. Thank you for that... And enjoy your day
Posted on 9/2/20 at 8:36 am to stomp
For your viewing pleasure. Just in case you might have forgotten all of the things that Democrats and their media enablers have said. Democrat calls to violence in the streets
Posted on 9/2/20 at 8:38 am to TideWarrior
quote:
Another poster alluded to this regarding Trump supporters don't answers the preelection polls.
That narrative was present in 2016 and it didn't really bear out being true. The pre-election polls turned out being fairly accurate.
The only prediction I have for this election is Biden will win the popular vote. Whether that translates to an EC victory, I have no idea nor prediction.
Posted on 9/2/20 at 8:48 am to The Spleen
quote:
That narrative was present in 2016 and it didn't really bear out being true. The pre-election polls turned out being fairly accurate.
This is technically right when you look at the popular vote, but pre-elections polls by state showed Hillary Clinton winning by a landslide.
California and New York made the polls look good. They were laughably bad when it came to the Electoral vote.
Posted on 9/2/20 at 8:51 am to The Spleen
I didn't vote in 16 for the first time ever. Will vote Trump in November. The Democrats are lost.
Posted on 9/2/20 at 8:54 am to The Spleen
2016 Presidential Election results maps
I'm sure most of you have seen this, but I thought it might be good to see again. The results by county paint an interesting picture. Shows how divided the country is based on urban areas vs rural areas. I would expect the results this year to be very similar. There are probably several maps you could overlay that would paint similar pictures.
I'm sure most of you have seen this, but I thought it might be good to see again. The results by county paint an interesting picture. Shows how divided the country is based on urban areas vs rural areas. I would expect the results this year to be very similar. There are probably several maps you could overlay that would paint similar pictures.
Posted on 9/2/20 at 8:56 am to TideSaint
quote:
pre-elections polls by state showed Hillary Clinton winning by a landslide.
I don't recall any models or polls showing a HIllary landslide. The prevailing thought from the polls was that NC, FL, WI, PA, and MI would determine the winner. Most polls had the margins within the margin of error in all of those states, so they were effectively a toss up. Most did have Hillary up in all of those except NC and FL, but the margins were only 1-2%.
Posted on 9/2/20 at 8:59 am to The Spleen
quote:
That narrative was present in 2016 and it didn't really bear out being true. The pre-election polls turned out being fairly accurate.
What? No one in MSM and polling world said Trump could win.
Posted on 9/2/20 at 9:03 am to BamaReb
quote:
Shows how divided the country is based on urban areas vs rural areas. I would expect the results this year to be very similar.
Yeah, suburban voters are going to decide this election. It's why the RNC convention was aimed at them. While Trump is going to easily win Alabama, I have seen more Biden stickers and yard signs in suburban Birmingham than I have any other Dem candidate since I moved here in 2000. I have no idea if that extrapolates out to the rest of the country though.
Posted on 9/2/20 at 9:05 am to 14&Counting
quote:
No one in MSM and polling world said Trump could win.
That is simply not true regarding the polling world. Nate Silver at 538 was yelling form the rooftops the final few weeks that Trump could easily win. Poll after poll those final weeks was showing late deciding voters going to Trump. Their final probability was around 65% chance Hillary would win. A lot of people didn't listen to him though.
ETA: Silver did come out after the election and say his algorithm had flaws and the percentage chance for Hillary winning should have been lowered to the 50-55%(I think) range.
This post was edited on 9/2/20 at 9:11 am
Posted on 9/2/20 at 9:11 am to Dubosed
quote:
I didn't vote in 16 for the first time ever. Will vote Trump in November. The Democrats are lost
This may seem like a funny statement, as though your vote counts for more than one, but reality is, I think that you are probably one of many.
Were you a “Never-Trumper”? What has changed your mind?
This post was edited on 9/2/20 at 9:11 am
Posted on 9/2/20 at 9:21 am to The Spleen
There was definitely the concept of the suppressed or “shy” Trump voter in 2016. This led to massive overestimation by many MSM types of a Hillary win. The suspicion is tha there are even more this go around.
Interestingly, polls this cycle show Trump as the slight leader in the popular vote, and up pretty big in some key battleground states. Are shy votes being less shy? Does every formerly shy voter also translate into some fraction thereof of new shy voters?
Interestingly, polls this cycle show Trump as the slight leader in the popular vote, and up pretty big in some key battleground states. Are shy votes being less shy? Does every formerly shy voter also translate into some fraction thereof of new shy voters?
Posted on 9/2/20 at 9:26 am to LovetheLord
quote:
There was definitely the concept of the suppressed or “shy” Trump voter in 2016. This led to massive overestimation by many MSM types of a Hillary win. The suspicion is tha there are even more this go around.
But again, if that was a thing it would have shown up in the election. The election results were fairly close to the final polling numbers. And why would it be more significant this cycle? In 2016 there was a bit of shame attached to being a Trump supporter. Several prominent republicans spoke out publicly against him - Lindsey Graham, Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio to name a few. They're all solidly in his corner now. There have been countless boat parades all over the country. MAGA hats are everywhere. Just makes no sense in this environment there are a significant number of "silent" Trump supporters.
quote:
nterestingly, polls this cycle show Trump as the slight leader in the popular vote, and up pretty big in some key battleground states.
Which polls show that? Almost all of the ones I've seen have Biden up between 5-9%. The margins in battleground states are a little tighter than that.
Posted on 9/2/20 at 10:08 am to The Spleen
the same thing is starting to happen as in 16. Trump is starting to climb up and inch closer. The latest report out of PA, a state which Biden has spent the most time in over the last 6 months is seeing his lead diminish. NC is seeing the same thing.
Posted on 9/2/20 at 10:16 am to The Spleen
quote:
Jack Posobiec Flag of United States
@JackPosobiec
Just got word the Trump campaign is opening new offices in Minnesota
One of Biden's first stops is in Minnesota. That sounds to me as they know they are in serious trouble if they are worried about losing Minnesota.
Bonus pic of the Amish flying a Trump 2020 No More bullshite flag.
This post was edited on 9/2/20 at 10:18 am
Page 12 of 26
Latest Alabama News
Popular
Back to top
Follow SECRant for SEC Football News