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Is our offensive play calling too predictable?
Posted on 10/27/21 at 9:23 am
Posted on 10/27/21 at 9:23 am
For example, has anyone noticed how much we run on first down?
It's bothered me so much, I even started looking around and found this article about BOB from two years ago, regarding his time with the Texans.
In it there are such quotes as:
Is BOB attempting some sort of long con to put on film, or is he just that stuck on certain concepts?
No doubt that we have OL concerns, and I certainly echo that, but it's similarly concerning when fans can spot our own tendencies, especially when he still continues to do it.
I just can't help but wonder if some of the issues we're seeing on offense (even the line play) is exacerbated by the defense being very confident of what play they're about to see.
It's bothered me so much, I even started looking around and found this article about BOB from two years ago, regarding his time with the Texans.
In it there are such quotes as:
quote:
Critics of Bill O’Brien tend to revert to the idea that he plays too simple of a pattern: run, run, slant. (That’s not necessarily true.)
quote:
Last week Bill Belichick posted up eight in the box 30% of the time for Hyde, a much higher number than he was used to seeing. He played to keep the Texans from running on first down because it is fairly evident to anyone who watches games that this is what O’Brien likes to do. O’Brien changed nothing, barely ran anything that would occupy a defender like a read-option, and the run offense died on the table.
quote:
Is BOB attempting some sort of long con to put on film, or is he just that stuck on certain concepts?
No doubt that we have OL concerns, and I certainly echo that, but it's similarly concerning when fans can spot our own tendencies, especially when he still continues to do it.
I just can't help but wonder if some of the issues we're seeing on offense (even the line play) is exacerbated by the defense being very confident of what play they're about to see.
Posted on 10/27/21 at 9:33 am to paperwasp
And why do we so rarely deploy "hot" routes to burn opponents who are blitzing us like crazy? Too often our route trees fail to get guys open and Bryce can't find a good target. Add in an empty backfield with no RB to help counter stunts/blitzes.
This post was edited on 10/27/21 at 11:16 am
Posted on 10/27/21 at 9:38 am to paperwasp
quote:
Is our offensive play calling too predictable?
I can tell what’s coming at a fairly accurate rate, so I imagine the guys that are paid millions can too. Works fine when you can out talent someone. The two games we’ve played against talented teams this year ended in a loss and narrow victory though. Despite the personnel limitations compared to an all time great offense in 2020, I have few doubts that Sark would have this offense absolutely humming against anyone.
It’s like we don’t call plays based on what the defense is doing, which is what we’ve done since lane was here. We are going to run our play, and if you’ve got the perfect defense for it we are going to run it anyway and hope for the best.
In a morbid twist of irony, this is the exact opposite of what we do on defense, and it manages to hinder both units from playing at their peak imo
This post was edited on 10/27/21 at 9:41 am
Posted on 10/27/21 at 9:47 am to paperwasp
We are running a lot of 4/5 man route combos.We usually have a WR or TE in the concepts who are having a hard time getting open or getting any separation.We have had a lot of key drops(Cost us a ballgame,among other things),We are playing 2 guys at RT and C who are having some issues.We are getting blitzed a lot(Red Dogs..Green Dogs..etc)for 2 basic reasons.#1)We fail to have or recognize any Built-in Hots too many times.When we do recognize and go Hot, and Bryce gets the ball out of hands?..Opponents pay and pay hard.#2Reason)We dont have a Devonta..or a healthy Waddle...Or Ruggs..Or Jerry Jeudys walking through the door who can take it to the house anytime on a simple Hot route. Or a simple go route or fade.Teams were kind of unwilling to say the least,to bring pressures.Jamo and Metchie are starting to make some plays,and I believe Holden,JoJo,and maybe even the other youngsters could emerge before it is all said and done.I still hold out hope for JBill to get his head out of his arse and be a man.And I like Roydell catching the football in trying to replace JMcC..BRob has been solid.
Posted on 10/27/21 at 9:49 am to Riseupfromtherubble
quote:I mean, we currently have the #2 scoring offense through 8 games
I have few doubts that Sark would have this offense absolutely humming against anyone.
Posted on 10/27/21 at 9:53 am to Riseupfromtherubble
Yep. Our OC and DC are both repeatedly making calls that do the opposite of helping our players succeed.
Posted on 10/27/21 at 9:59 am to The Inspector
I greatly apologize for posting a Joel Klatt link, but your comments about route calling and TE play reminded me of his breakdown from the A&M game.
If you have a few minutes, start around the 2:30 mark and watch it–it’s frustrating, to say the least.
Red zone play design and execution (Twitter)
If you have a few minutes, start around the 2:30 mark and watch it–it’s frustrating, to say the least.
Red zone play design and execution (Twitter)
Posted on 10/27/21 at 10:19 am to narddogg81
Yeah, we're too predictable and we have WRs who struggle to get separation.
We have a OC who likes longer developing plays combined with WRs who don't always read the defense an Check their route (run a hot during a blitz).
Sometimes when they do run the hot they drop it or we miss the pass.
In the end we're too predictable because we don't do enough to disguise pre-snap (movement of WRs to create depth then snap the ball to take advantage of mismatch).
It's also easier on defenses because they're all playing up and not really bothering about the long ball because they know that is Bryce's one true weakness. This means they break on our short passes easier and keep things in front, hence why our drives are usually long struggles.
Well because our QB is from another world minus his deep balls.
We have a OC who likes longer developing plays combined with WRs who don't always read the defense an Check their route (run a hot during a blitz).
Sometimes when they do run the hot they drop it or we miss the pass.
In the end we're too predictable because we don't do enough to disguise pre-snap (movement of WRs to create depth then snap the ball to take advantage of mismatch).
It's also easier on defenses because they're all playing up and not really bothering about the long ball because they know that is Bryce's one true weakness. This means they break on our short passes easier and keep things in front, hence why our drives are usually long struggles.
quote:
mean, we currently have the #2 scoring offense through 8 games
Well because our QB is from another world minus his deep balls.
Posted on 10/27/21 at 10:24 am to YStar
quote:
Yeah, we're too predictable and we have WRs who struggle to get separation.
JaMo gets separation pretty regularly, but it's either stone hands half the time or Bryce overthrows him
quote:
Well because our QB is from another world minus his deep balls.
Not sure what good separation is going to do if the WR/TE is going to drop it half the time, or the QB struggles to hit the deep ones accurately
This post was edited on 10/27/21 at 11:18 am
Posted on 10/27/21 at 10:58 am to paperwasp
I keep seeing people say this but I haven't noticed Bama being run heavy on first down outside of trash time.
Maybe SoG can pop in with some numbers showing first down selection outside the red zone (or maybe inside the 10) and outside of trash time. I know against Tennessee we were in no way run heavy on first down. In fact, Bama punted (or tried to) 3 times against the Vols. Two of those possessions were 3 and outs - in both cases the first down play was a pass. On the third one, the first down play on the last series of downs before the punt was a called pass that ended up being a scramble run by Bryce.
Maybe SoG can pop in with some numbers showing first down selection outside the red zone (or maybe inside the 10) and outside of trash time. I know against Tennessee we were in no way run heavy on first down. In fact, Bama punted (or tried to) 3 times against the Vols. Two of those possessions were 3 and outs - in both cases the first down play was a pass. On the third one, the first down play on the last series of downs before the punt was a called pass that ended up being a scramble run by Bryce.
Posted on 10/27/21 at 11:07 am to paperwasp
I think so. He follows a pretty clear script for putting together drives. First down he's looking to pick up 4-6 yards regardless of whether it's a run or a pass. If we gain less than that then we tend to go empty or 4 wide on second down and look for something intermediate over the middle or run some sort of WR screen. If we gain 7-9 on first down we will be aggressive down the field on second down because we'll be looking at third and short anyway.
It's all very conventional NFL stuff in terms of strategy.
It's all very conventional NFL stuff in terms of strategy.
This post was edited on 10/27/21 at 11:08 am
Posted on 10/27/21 at 11:17 am to Robot Santa
quote:
It's all very conventional NFL stuff in terms of strategy.
Yeah, this. Unfortunately.
I mean we kinda knew that when he was coming in. We're not getting some innovative offensive prodigy. We're getting an old NFL coach who's been around. I mean it's not bad, but it's not Sark or Kiffin.
That being said, we haven't seen anybody really shut us down. The vast majority of our offensive mishaps had more to do with bad execution than bad playcalling imo
This post was edited on 10/27/21 at 11:23 am
Posted on 10/27/21 at 11:28 am to BasedTide
quote:
I mean we kinda knew that when he was coming in. We're not getting some innovative offensive prodigy. We're getting an old NFL coach who's been around. I mean it's not bad, but it's not Sark or Kiffin.
That being said, we haven't seen anybody really shut us down. The vast majority of our offensive mishaps had more to do with bad execution than bad playcalling imo
The thing for me is that because it's pretty conventional NFL thinking then the whole consistent execution thing is pretty much assumed. But we're talking about college kids here not pros. They're going to make mistakes. Our big play offense has showed up a bit more the last two weeks, but we still don't seem willing or able to truly light anyone up with 3-4 consecutive 3-7 play TD drives the way we have in the past. I have serious concerns about our ability to go on sustained drives against a team like UGA, if we end up making it that far.
Posted on 10/27/21 at 11:31 am to JustGetItRight
I haven't separated these outside of the redzone, or garbage time, but overall it breaks down as follows (per cfb stats):
1st Down: 65.4% run, 34.6% pass
2nd Down: 44.3% run, 55.7% pass
3rd Down: 36.7% run, 63.3% pass
4th Down: 77.8% run, 22.2% pass
1st Down: 65.4% run, 34.6% pass
2nd Down: 44.3% run, 55.7% pass
3rd Down: 36.7% run, 63.3% pass
4th Down: 77.8% run, 22.2% pass
Posted on 10/27/21 at 11:33 am to BasedTide
ive been complaining to my brother about his playcalling since right after we went up 21 on florida. his early game scripted plays has a much better flavor than anything he calls afterward. he settles into the same old pecking order, run, mostly run, try to pass for the first down. his playcalling is a far cry from either kiffen or sark. sheesh, dabol was a better playcaller especially with tua
Posted on 10/27/21 at 12:08 pm to Robot Santa
quote:
The thing for me is that because it's pretty conventional NFL thinking then the whole consistent execution thing is pretty much assumed. But we're talking about college kids here not pros. They're going to make mistakes. Our big play offense has showed up a bit more the last two weeks, but we still don't seem willing or able to truly light anyone up with 3-4 consecutive 3-7 play TD drives the way we have in the past. I have serious concerns about our ability to go on sustained drives against a team like UGA, if we end up making it that far.
This is on the money. We need more big-hitting plays so we don't have to have flawless execution over the course of a long 20 play drive or something. Too many things can go wrong on a long drive. You might be dinking and dunking for 40 yards, and then you get one false start and the whole drive falls apart. Most defenses now are like swiss cheese anyway. Might as well go big.
In the college game, in this era, it's better to take your chances downfield. There's always the possibility for a PI or defensive hold even if you don't execute.
Posted on 10/27/21 at 12:12 pm to crimsontater
Overall I think our offense is doing well. Drops have been a HUGE issue.
The only thing I would ask of BOB is for him to open up some more quick-developing downfield passing with simpler routes. Our QB is money. Let's open it up more. This isn't the NFL where you have to meticulously scheme something open - you can pretty much call anything, and you'll get someone open on a bust or bad coverage - at least that's the case with our defense
The only thing I would ask of BOB is for him to open up some more quick-developing downfield passing with simpler routes. Our QB is money. Let's open it up more. This isn't the NFL where you have to meticulously scheme something open - you can pretty much call anything, and you'll get someone open on a bust or bad coverage - at least that's the case with our defense
This post was edited on 10/27/21 at 12:14 pm
Posted on 10/27/21 at 1:08 pm to paperwasp
I just have a difficult time being overly critical of our offense. Considering what we lost ,I think we have played played better than I ever dreamed. Most thought our defense would carry us and that hasn’t happened. If they were playing like we thought we would be undefeated and the favorites to win it all.
Posted on 10/27/21 at 1:36 pm to paperwasp
I know things aren't perfect with the offense but my goodness, guys. Get a grip. We lost the following off of our offense from last year:
Jaylen Waddle, WR - 1st rounder
DeVonta Smith, WR - 1st rounder
Mac Jones, QB - 1st rounder
Najee Harris, RB - 1st rounder
Alex Leatherwood, OL - 1st rounder
Landon Dickerson, OL - 2nd rounder
Deonte Brown, OL - 6th rounder
That's over half the offense lost to the NFL Draft. Three of those guys finished in the Top 5 in Heisman voting and one of them actually won the Heisman. That's not even mentioning the fact that our OC from last year is now the head coach at Texas.
Despite losing so much talent on the offensive side of the ball, we are currently 10th in the FBS in total offense and 2nd in the FBS in scoring offense. I know things could always be better but good grief.
Jaylen Waddle, WR - 1st rounder
DeVonta Smith, WR - 1st rounder
Mac Jones, QB - 1st rounder
Najee Harris, RB - 1st rounder
Alex Leatherwood, OL - 1st rounder
Landon Dickerson, OL - 2nd rounder
Deonte Brown, OL - 6th rounder
That's over half the offense lost to the NFL Draft. Three of those guys finished in the Top 5 in Heisman voting and one of them actually won the Heisman. That's not even mentioning the fact that our OC from last year is now the head coach at Texas.
Despite losing so much talent on the offensive side of the ball, we are currently 10th in the FBS in total offense and 2nd in the FBS in scoring offense. I know things could always be better but good grief.
This post was edited on 10/27/21 at 1:40 pm
Posted on 10/27/21 at 1:41 pm to RollTide1987
We're actually 7th in total offense and 2nd in scoring offense if you sort by FBS competition only.
I'll add that scoring offense typically factors in total points scored, vs just offensive points scored so things like INTs/FUM/PR/KR/Safeties are all included in that too
I'll add that scoring offense typically factors in total points scored, vs just offensive points scored so things like INTs/FUM/PR/KR/Safeties are all included in that too
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