Interesting numbers from the Championship game - compared to the SOG Prediction

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The score is incredibly deceptive. We had flaws that got exploited, but the score should've been significantly closer.

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Here are our yard per point totals for all our P5 games this year

Louisville - 10.2
Ole Miss - 8.3
A&M - 11.6
Arkansas - 9.8
Missouri - 14.5
Tennessee - 9.4
LSU - 19.9
Miss St - 12.7
Auburn - 9.6
Georgia - 11.5
Oklahoma - 11.7

Clemson - 27.7



Insane

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The score is incredibly deceptive. We had flaws that got exploited, but the score should've been significantly closer.

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The red zone ineptitude killed us. Ifs and butts and all that, but the title game was defined on

Red zone ineffectiveness
Penalties
Turnovers

They came to play and I think clearly had been preparing since week 1, but we didnt help ourselves at all

Interesting, George, thanks.

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The game basically played out exactly as expected in terms of everything outside of scoring..............

Wild

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I give a ton of credit to Clemson for making virtually every high leverage play in the game, particularly the turnovers and the key red zone plays on both sides. Ultimately those are the plays that decide games and those dozen or so plays pretty much all went one way in this game due to Clemson's execution and playing calling compared to the lack thereof for Alabama. However the narrative that Clemson physically dominated Alabama or that Alabama (outside of Savion Smith) quit in the third quarter has been blown way out of proportion. However college football fans have been looking for some red meat from Alabama/Saban for like a decade so the dogs are going wild right now. Comes with the territory.

Quirky, abberation, whatever you want to call it. I totally agree. It wasn't the norm for Bama. And certainly there is most likely some luck involved. But to see Clemson make big play after big play when it was crucial and Bama not make one damn play, it just defies explanation.

Man this game really is gonna make for a rocky offseason. We were terrible in just about every way.

It's not a measure of offensive output - it's an overall number that can measure multiple things.......do teams finish drives, do teams make kicks, do teams score on NOTs, etc. For instance, our 2016 team had an insane yards per point number (points per possession is a similar stat).

Clemson came into the game with a very impressive Yard Per Point number mostly based on their offense finishing drives with TDs, and their defense had a great one because they bow up inside the 20. That was all built into the original model that showed a close game.

The point was we had the perfect storm of shite hit us : 5 red zone trips with 0 TDs, Clemson having very few empty long possessions and of course Clemson scoring on a pick 6. As elposter said, every high leverage play Clemson made. If you charted the 10 most important plays of the game by "expected win % added" I bet Clemson had 8 of them.

Basically, all of that culminated to mean we could have had 650 yards and we did enough in major moments to totally negate that. It's insanely rare.

That was the whole point of the post, was to show that the game itself up and down/yardage wise/etc played almost totally to expectation. The score was so lopsided because of 6 different occurrences that generally maybe 1 of occurs a game. And it made things look insane, even though the underlying numbers were not.

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The game basically played out exactly as expected in terms of everything outside of scoring..............

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Yep. Alabama threw away about 17-21 points they usually score.

If you looked just at the stats you would assume Clemson won a high scoring game, something like 45-42 or thereabouts, and that's likely how it "should" have played out.

But given us blowing pretty much every single scoring chance we had the final 3 quarters of the game, you get the lopsided score.