re: Current CFB Playoff Prediction Models (updated 12/6)

I'm confident that he will probably throw between 175 yards and 250 yards with 1 or 2 ints against Bama. One thing that's shocking is that he hasn't thrown lot of touchdown passes this year. Take away Bryant's ability to run and force him to be a passer and we'll be okay. I suspect we'll mix in some of Auburn game plan with our to contain Bryant. If they can do this to Hurts, then we can do the same to Bryant. The key to is make sure Bryant feels pressure on every plays and eventually he'll make mistakes.

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We don't need tua. We need pass plays they work to Jalen's strengths.

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I agree that throwing Tua into a playoff game would be silly, but Jalen's best pass plays are the kind that are easy for a defense like Clemson to take away. We'll need to run the ball and be efficient passing, but if all we can throw are screens, swings, and hitches, I don't like our chances. Jalen has the ability to make tougher throws, he just struggles with doing it consistently. If he's on his game, we've got this

Projected Scores from other Models

S&P+
Georgia - 34
Oklahoma - 32

Alabama - 26
Clemson - 22

Sagarin
Georgia - 31
Oklahoma - 28

Clemson - 21
Alabama - 20

I really think UGA will be able to play a good defensive game against OU. Of course they won't shut them down. But I feel pretty good about UGA. At least today

I’d almost be tempted to stick AA on Renfrow. AA is fast enough, other guys always seemed a step behind him.

They will def have a plan for him that's 2 years of film if they don't it's stupidity

Boz, what’s the progress reports on Mayden and S. Carter? I honestly wouldn’t mind seeing one of those guys rotating with TB to keep him fresh and to keep his head in the game.

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I would def look at putting a good veteran on 13 though.

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You can bet your arse they'll be clearing out space and trying to get him to drag the middle on 3rd and 5-7 like Auburn did with Ryan Davis.

MVP for sure.

I’m genuinely curious: what would your model have predicted for OSU vs Clemson had they gotten in instead?

I’m also curious as to what your model predicted for OSU vs Iowa.

Did a little update that I think better extrapolates things. It also tries to figure out the play differential (it's not good for us) based on previous games.

Clemson on average runs about 10 more plays a game than their opponent (against above average teams). We run about 10 less than our opponent (A&M, Auburn, LSU, State). That's not good.

And, our averages against the Top 4 defenses we played (IMHO) (FSU, LSU, MSU, Auburn) are as follows :

- 23.3 PPG

- 59.3 Plays Per Game
- 71.0 Plays Per Game Against
- (-11.7) Play Net Per Game


- 332 YPG
- 176 Rush YPG
- 156 Pass YPG

- 5.59 Total YPP
- 4.56 Rush YPA
- 7.52 Pass YPA


Not real good. The good news, however, is even with a 10 play differential it's still basically a toss up. My take away is that if we can basically run an even or positive number of plays we will win this game. Whether that's converting 3 more 3rd downs and/or stopping 3 more 3rd downs.