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Current CFB Playoff Prediction Models (updated 12/6)
Posted on 12/4/17 at 12:36 am
Posted on 12/4/17 at 12:36 am
ROSE BOWL - #2 OKLAHOMA VS #3 GEORGIA
OKLAHOMA : 32.3
GEORGIA : 31.5
Georgia
430 Total Yards (6.38 YPP) (67 Plays)
250 Rush Yards (5.55 YPA) (45 Plays)
180 Pass Yards (8.04 YPA) (22 Plays)
Oklahoma
460 Total Yards (6.94 YPP) (66 Plays)
152 Rush Yards (4.12 YPA) (37 Plays)
308 Pass Yards (10.46 YPA) (29 Plays)
SUGAR BOWL - #1 CLEMSON VS #4 ALABAMA
ALABAMA : 17.3
CLEMSON : 16.8
Clemson
305 Total Yards (4.08 YPP) (75 Plays)
110 Rush Yards (2.57 YPA) (43 Plays)
195 Pass Yards (6.13 YPA) (32 Plays)
Alabama
295 Total Yards (4.58 YPP) (65 Plays)
162 Rush Yards (4.00 YPA) (41 Plays)
133 Pass Yards (5.56 YPA) (24 Plays)
OKLAHOMA : 32.3
GEORGIA : 31.5
Georgia
430 Total Yards (6.38 YPP) (67 Plays)
250 Rush Yards (5.55 YPA) (45 Plays)
180 Pass Yards (8.04 YPA) (22 Plays)
Oklahoma
460 Total Yards (6.94 YPP) (66 Plays)
152 Rush Yards (4.12 YPA) (37 Plays)
308 Pass Yards (10.46 YPA) (29 Plays)
SUGAR BOWL - #1 CLEMSON VS #4 ALABAMA
ALABAMA : 17.3
CLEMSON : 16.8
Clemson
305 Total Yards (4.08 YPP) (75 Plays)
110 Rush Yards (2.57 YPA) (43 Plays)
195 Pass Yards (6.13 YPA) (32 Plays)
Alabama
295 Total Yards (4.58 YPP) (65 Plays)
162 Rush Yards (4.00 YPA) (41 Plays)
133 Pass Yards (5.56 YPA) (24 Plays)
This post was edited on 12/6/17 at 3:26 pm
Posted on 12/4/17 at 12:56 am to SummerOfGeorge
Those passing numbers will get us beat! Need a Tua package!
Posted on 12/4/17 at 1:01 am to phil4bama
quote:
Those passing numbers will get us beat! Need a Tua package!
We don't need tua. We need pass plays they work to Jalen's strengths.
Posted on 12/4/17 at 1:07 am to SummerOfGeorge
My gut is usually right and I think we beat Clemson comfortably(im not sure Bryant throws well enough) plus neither one of us are near as good as the last 2 years and then we beat UGA in a close one to win the NC.
This post was edited on 12/4/17 at 5:43 am
Posted on 12/4/17 at 1:33 am to mistaken4193
Dont sell Bryant short... he is talented and Dabo will have him ready to play.
Posted on 12/4/17 at 8:17 am to stomp
The good news is this is based on data almost exclusively with us playing minus our LB corp (or with them playing limited snaps vs AU). I don't know if it will make a huge difference, but I have to think there will be some uptick there.
I fully expect us to put the clamps on Clemson's offense. They aren't explosive and their QB is basically Jalen Hurts circa 2016 (everything within 7 yards of the LOS). Their run game is good but certainly not great.
The story of the game is what we do offensively. As you can tell from the numbers, if we just run out and do what we did against LSU, A&M, Auburn and FSU then we will be punting a whole heckuva lot. I trust we won't do that.
I fully expect us to put the clamps on Clemson's offense. They aren't explosive and their QB is basically Jalen Hurts circa 2016 (everything within 7 yards of the LOS). Their run game is good but certainly not great.
The story of the game is what we do offensively. As you can tell from the numbers, if we just run out and do what we did against LSU, A&M, Auburn and FSU then we will be punting a whole heckuva lot. I trust we won't do that.
This post was edited on 12/4/17 at 8:18 am
Posted on 12/4/17 at 8:22 am to SummerOfGeorge
There are some teams where these comparative models are difficult to accurately pick. Teams like Auburn who have a late uptick or Ohio State who plays really well one week and terrible the next. However, some teams are pretty consistently one way or another. Both us and Clemson are that way (Georgia and Oklahoma are too, FYI).
I fully expect this game to be somewhere in the 24-17 or 24-21 range.
I fully expect this game to be somewhere in the 24-17 or 24-21 range.
Posted on 12/4/17 at 8:36 am to SummerOfGeorge
I don't see Georgia beating Oklahoma
Posted on 12/4/17 at 8:38 am to CrimsonCrusade
Me either. I see OU winning that game like 45-31.
Posted on 12/4/17 at 8:41 am to remaster916
quote:
I see OU winning that game like 45-31.
ISWYDT.
Anyways...I haven't watched Clemson much this year. In fact, I think the only game I really watched of theirs was the Auburn game in the second week of the season. I just know one thing...if we play like we don't have a purpose on offense, we are guaranteed to lose.
Posted on 12/4/17 at 8:44 am to CrimsonCrusade
quote:
I don't see Georgia beating Oklahoma
The thing in that game is, Oklahoma is consistently bad at run defense. They are just bad at it. Georgia is, without a doubt, going to run the football against them. And Georgia has proven that if you have to bring guys up to stop the run they can and will beat you with the pass.
I think that Georgia has a chance to control the tempo of that game, but Mayfield is going to do what he does. However, Georgia is going to do what they do too. I think it'll be a classic.
Posted on 12/4/17 at 8:44 am to RollTide1987
quote:
if we play like we don't have a purpose on offense, we are guaranteed to lose.
100%
Posted on 12/4/17 at 8:46 am to mistaken4193
quote:
plus neither one of us are near as good as the last 2 years
This is an overlooked point for the most part this season, and I don't think it applies only to Clemson and Bama. I don't think any of these Top 4 teams are as good as some of the previous football teams from '14-'16 that made it in. Pretty level playing field I think.
Posted on 12/4/17 at 8:47 am to TiderNAL
I'll add that one of the keys for both games, especially ours, will be total number of plays (which will be depending on 3rd downs).
If we give up 3rd downs and don't get 3rd downs and Clemson is 15 plays more than us mid-way through the 3rd, we're in trouble (even if the score is still 17-14 or something). Same with UGA/Oklahoma. We HAVE to get off the field and sustain drives. We will not win if Clemson runs 80 plays and we run 62 (barring a bunch of turnovers or special teams scores).
If we give up 3rd downs and don't get 3rd downs and Clemson is 15 plays more than us mid-way through the 3rd, we're in trouble (even if the score is still 17-14 or something). Same with UGA/Oklahoma. We HAVE to get off the field and sustain drives. We will not win if Clemson runs 80 plays and we run 62 (barring a bunch of turnovers or special teams scores).
This post was edited on 12/4/17 at 8:49 am
Posted on 12/4/17 at 8:56 am to SummerOfGeorge
If we rush for 200+ yards on that D-line, I kinda like our chances...
Posted on 12/4/17 at 8:59 am to OldPete
quote:
If we rush for 200+ yards on that D-line, I kinda like our chances...
Clemson gave up
- 4.30 to Louisville
- 3.80 to Wake Forest
- 4.50 to NC State
- 3.47 to Miami
Vs the best run defenses on our schedule
- 4.12 vs FSU
- 3.22 vs LSU
- 5.32 vs Mississippi State
- 5.55 vs Auburn
I think it's reasonable to expect us to run for 4-4.5 YPC in this game (4.9 might be a TAD high). Just depends whether we stick with it and work well off of it or not.
This post was edited on 12/4/17 at 9:01 am
Posted on 12/4/17 at 9:03 am to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
I think it's reasonable to expect us to run for 4-4.5 YPC in this game (4.9 might be a TAD high). Just depends whether we stick with it and work well off of it or not.
That's the key...wonder how many yards Harris would have if he'd get 15 to 20 carries a game...
Posted on 12/4/17 at 9:09 am to mistaken4193
Maybe we can actually shutdown Renfrow this time.
Posted on 12/4/17 at 9:16 am to mistaken4193
quote:
Maybe we can actually shutdown Renfrow this time.
Posted on 12/4/17 at 9:21 am to mistaken4193
Fitz was new to his position in 15, 13 got him a few times.
TB was new to nickel in 16, same result.
My opinion would be this, either stick Fitz who is now a veteran on him and tell him to smash him at the LOS. Or take Thompson make him a angry nasty human in 30 days, tell him if 13 catches more than 5 he's fired for life.
TB was new to nickel in 16, same result.
My opinion would be this, either stick Fitz who is now a veteran on him and tell him to smash him at the LOS. Or take Thompson make him a angry nasty human in 30 days, tell him if 13 catches more than 5 he's fired for life.
This post was edited on 12/4/17 at 9:22 am
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