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Analytical Review : Possible replacements for the Lil General
Posted on 2/20/19 at 1:26 pm
Posted on 2/20/19 at 1:26 pm
Ok - I am using KenPom to do this "test". Here are my criteria.
- Current KenPom rankings of 1-100
- Took over a program that was 50+ spots worse than his current 3 year average KenPom rank (or average as long as he's been there) the prior 2/3 years
- Not a current coach of a "blue blood" or similar level program (using my discretion)
- been at current school at least 2 seasons
Steve Forbes (ETSU)
- 3 year average pre-Forbes: #260 (45-52, 0 NCAAT)
- last 3 year average with Forbes: #76 (62-30, 1 NCAAT)
- Difference of +184 spots
Eric Musselman (Nevada)
- 3 year average pre Musselman : #195 (36-58, 0 NCAAT)
- last 3 year average with Musselman : #32 (81-16, 3 NCAAT)
- Difference of +162 spots
John Brannen (Northern Kentucky)
- 3 year average pre-Brannen: #267 (33-54, 0 NCAAT)
- last 3 year average with Brannen: #106 (66-28, 1 NCAAT)
- Difference of +161 spots
Mark Pope (Utah Valley State)
- 3 year average pre-Pope: #273 (45-49, 0 NCAAT)
- last 3 year average with Pope: #114 (57-36, 0 NCAAT)
- Difference of +159 spots
Kelvin Sampson (Houston)*
- 3 year average pre-Sampson: #167 (52-44, 0 NCAAT)
- last 3 year average with Sampson: #29 (73-20, 2 NCAAT)
- Difference of +138 spots
Johnny Dawkins (UCF)
- 3 year average pre-Dawkins : #207 (37-54, 0 NCAAT)
- last 3 year average with Dawkins : #76 (62-30, 1? NCAAT)
- Difference of +131 spots
Dan Majerle (Grand Canyon)
- 3 year average pre-Thunder Dan: N/A, program did not exist
- first 3 year average in D1 : #248 (59-37, 0 NCAAT)
- last 3 year average in D1: #120 (59-31, 0 NCAAT)
- Difference of +128 spots
Couple extras outside the Top 100
Grant McCasland (North Texas)
- 3 year average pre-McCasland: #285 (34-59, 0 NCAAT)
- last 2 year average with Dawkins : #142 (40-25, 0 NCAAT)
- Difference of +143 spots
Ray Harper (Jacksonville State)
- 3 year average pre-Harper: #305 (30-63, 0 NCAAT)
- last 3 year average with Dawkins : #136 (62-36, 1? NCAAT)
- Difference of +169 spots
* As most of you know, Sampson has a serious NCAA history while at Indiana
- Current KenPom rankings of 1-100
- Took over a program that was 50+ spots worse than his current 3 year average KenPom rank (or average as long as he's been there) the prior 2/3 years
- Not a current coach of a "blue blood" or similar level program (using my discretion)
- been at current school at least 2 seasons
Steve Forbes (ETSU)
- 3 year average pre-Forbes: #260 (45-52, 0 NCAAT)
- last 3 year average with Forbes: #76 (62-30, 1 NCAAT)
- Difference of +184 spots
Eric Musselman (Nevada)
- 3 year average pre Musselman : #195 (36-58, 0 NCAAT)
- last 3 year average with Musselman : #32 (81-16, 3 NCAAT)
- Difference of +162 spots
John Brannen (Northern Kentucky)
- 3 year average pre-Brannen: #267 (33-54, 0 NCAAT)
- last 3 year average with Brannen: #106 (66-28, 1 NCAAT)
- Difference of +161 spots
Mark Pope (Utah Valley State)
- 3 year average pre-Pope: #273 (45-49, 0 NCAAT)
- last 3 year average with Pope: #114 (57-36, 0 NCAAT)
- Difference of +159 spots
Kelvin Sampson (Houston)*
- 3 year average pre-Sampson: #167 (52-44, 0 NCAAT)
- last 3 year average with Sampson: #29 (73-20, 2 NCAAT)
- Difference of +138 spots
Johnny Dawkins (UCF)
- 3 year average pre-Dawkins : #207 (37-54, 0 NCAAT)
- last 3 year average with Dawkins : #76 (62-30, 1? NCAAT)
- Difference of +131 spots
Dan Majerle (Grand Canyon)
- 3 year average pre-Thunder Dan: N/A, program did not exist
- first 3 year average in D1 : #248 (59-37, 0 NCAAT)
- last 3 year average in D1: #120 (59-31, 0 NCAAT)
- Difference of +128 spots
Couple extras outside the Top 100
Grant McCasland (North Texas)
- 3 year average pre-McCasland: #285 (34-59, 0 NCAAT)
- last 2 year average with Dawkins : #142 (40-25, 0 NCAAT)
- Difference of +143 spots
Ray Harper (Jacksonville State)
- 3 year average pre-Harper: #305 (30-63, 0 NCAAT)
- last 3 year average with Dawkins : #136 (62-36, 1? NCAAT)
- Difference of +169 spots
* As most of you know, Sampson has a serious NCAA history while at Indiana
This post was edited on 2/20/19 at 2:28 pm
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Posted on 2/20/19 at 1:31 pm to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
Steve Forbes (ETSU)
Would be my top choice outside of the homerun we'll never get type hires. I love that he's learned from Pearl, understands juco basketball since he coached there, and the toughness factor that's obtained from being around the Wichita program.
quote:
John Brannen (Northern Kentucky)
He's a great guy and I wouldn't mind the hire, but people would lose their shite just because he was Grant's top assistant.
quote:
Kelvin Sampson (Houston)*
I don't care about past discretions when it comes to NCAA violations. Just win baby.
Posted on 2/20/19 at 1:40 pm to SummerOfGeorge
Rumor has it Kelvin Sampson is angling for the Arkansas job. If we couldn’t get Steve Prohm I think Forbes at ETSU would be a great get
Posted on 2/20/19 at 1:44 pm to Bryant91092
quote:
Would be my top choice outside of the homerun we'll never get type hires. I love that he's learned from Pearl, understands juco basketball since he coached there, and the toughness factor that's obtained from being around the Wichita program.
Yea I mean I know I sound like his fanboy but I've said for 2 years that is the guy that we need. He'd be a frickin perfect fit and he'd be jacked up to be here.
Posted on 2/20/19 at 2:10 pm to SummerOfGeorge
I'd have to go with Forbes from your list. Seems like a good coach and better fit.
Second for me on your list would be Johnny Dawkins. Learned from one of the best.
Second for me on your list would be Johnny Dawkins. Learned from one of the best.
Posted on 2/20/19 at 2:13 pm to DT55Forever1
quote:
Second for me on your list would be Johnny Dawkins. Learned from one of the best.
Dawkins has done a nice job at UCF. His run at Stanford would concern me, was pretty mediocre. I'd have to read more about what if anything he changed between Stanford and UCF.
Posted on 2/20/19 at 2:27 pm to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
Dawkins has done a nice job at UCF. His run at Stanford would concern me, was pretty mediocre.
Yeah, agree about Stanford. Would add that UCF isn't really that consistent or fun to watch either. He brought in some good talent but hasn't really set the world on fire.
Coaches like Dawkins that I feel would much more than likely just continue the NIT or maybe Last Four In trend at Alabama could convince me I'm just as happy keeping Avery and saving the extra $ for a better hire down the road.
Off that list, of course, Sampson would win if the AD were to go in the direction of a coach with past NCAA baggage.
Musselman is intriguing but only if proper research were to show he was Xs and Os guy behind Johnny Jones, Ariz St's etc better seasons when he was there.
As an AD I would need to be very convinced he hasn't just capture lightning in a bottle with the Martin twin + Caroline transfers.
This post was edited on 2/20/19 at 2:37 pm
Posted on 2/20/19 at 2:32 pm to wm72
Personally, the 2 that intrigue me the most are Forbes and Majerle.
Dan Majerle really intrigues me if Forbes wasn't an option. He took over as the head coach in their very first year in D1 and hasn't had a losing record in his 6 seasons. They've gotten better every year. They have an incredible home environment.
2014 : #241 (15-15) (10-6)
2015 : #263 (17-15) (8-6)
2016 : #130 (27-7) (13-3)
2017 : #152 (22-9) (11-3)
2018 : #121 (22-12) (9-5)
2019 : #87 (15-10) (8-4)
Also, frick yes who doesn't love Thunder Dan.
Dan Majerle really intrigues me if Forbes wasn't an option. He took over as the head coach in their very first year in D1 and hasn't had a losing record in his 6 seasons. They've gotten better every year. They have an incredible home environment.
2014 : #241 (15-15) (10-6)
2015 : #263 (17-15) (8-6)
2016 : #130 (27-7) (13-3)
2017 : #152 (22-9) (11-3)
2018 : #121 (22-12) (9-5)
2019 : #87 (15-10) (8-4)
Also, frick yes who doesn't love Thunder Dan.
This post was edited on 2/20/19 at 2:35 pm
Posted on 2/20/19 at 2:33 pm to SummerOfGeorge
I forgot about his time at Stanford. Maybe he wasn't quite ready to be a head coach. But hey, he did win 2 NITs while he was there. :)
Musselman is intriguing but he's only coached at one college I believe. The rest of his time was in the NBA. He's definitely a high energy guy.
What do you think of Meyer? Seen him mentioned a few times on here.
Musselman is intriguing but he's only coached at one college I believe. The rest of his time was in the NBA. He's definitely a high energy guy.
What do you think of Meyer? Seen him mentioned a few times on here.
Posted on 2/20/19 at 2:35 pm to DT55Forever1
quote:
What do you think of Meyer? Seen him mentioned a few times on here.
Meyer?
Posted on 2/20/19 at 2:38 pm to SummerOfGeorge
I give the edge to Musselman based on most NCAA appearances from that group.
Posted on 2/20/19 at 2:40 pm to TiderNAL
quote:
I give the edge to Musselman based on most NCAA appearances from that group.
I think Musselman is going to end up being out of our range. I mean it's obviously worth the inquiry, I just think he'll have bigger fish to fry.
Posted on 2/20/19 at 2:40 pm to SummerOfGeorge
I don't know enough about Majerle to really comment but, yeah, I loved Thunder Dan (but I loved the Lil General too!).
Forbes is certainly an intriguing name as well. Probably best I've heard of mid major guys but still such a gamble.
Off that list above, of course, Sampson would win if the AD were to go in the direction of a coach with past NCAA baggage.
Musselman is intriguing too but only if proper research were to show he was Xs and Os guy behind Johnny Jones, Ariz St's etc better seasons when he was there.
As an AD I would need to be very convinced he hasn't just captured lightning in a bottle with the Martin twins + Caroline transfers.
Forbes is certainly an intriguing name as well. Probably best I've heard of mid major guys but still such a gamble.
Off that list above, of course, Sampson would win if the AD were to go in the direction of a coach with past NCAA baggage.
Musselman is intriguing too but only if proper research were to show he was Xs and Os guy behind Johnny Jones, Ariz St's etc better seasons when he was there.
As an AD I would need to be very convinced he hasn't just captured lightning in a bottle with the Martin twins + Caroline transfers.
This post was edited on 2/20/19 at 2:43 pm
Posted on 2/20/19 at 2:40 pm to SummerOfGeorge
Of those, the only ones I'd get excited about as coaches are Sampson, Forbes, and Musselman. Byrne would never be authorized to talk to Sampson because of his NCAA history though, so we might as well forget about that. Dawkins plays Grantsketball and Brannen was actually part of it. frick that. I'd get excited about Majerle because it's Thunder Dan and I'd love to see the fanbase's reaction if he dunks on Saban in a pickup game.
Posted on 2/20/19 at 2:43 pm to Robot Santa
quote:
Of those, the only ones I'd get excited about as coaches are Sampson, Forbes, and Musselman.
Yep - agree. And agree that there is no way Sampson would be entertained as an option.
But yea I'd get jacked about Thunder Dan. What a fvckin bad arse. And an actual college basketball coach who has had success.
Posted on 2/20/19 at 2:45 pm to wm72
quote:
I loved Thunder Dan (but I loved the Lil General too!)
Hahaha I was about to say - we're just gonna keep rolling through 1990s Western Conference backcourt players as our coach until someone works.
Next up - Mitch Richmond!
Posted on 2/20/19 at 2:54 pm to SummerOfGeorge
Southern Swag mentioned a Meyer and the only one I know of with a coaching history is Jeff Meyer. He's at Butler now as an assistant but has alot of head coaching experience
Posted on 2/20/19 at 3:16 pm to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
Would be my top choice outside of the homerun we'll never get type hires. I love that he's learned from Pearl, understands juco basketball since he coached there, and the toughness factor that's obtained from being around the Wichita program.
quote:
Yea I mean I know I sound like his fanboy but I've said for 2 years that is the guy that we need. He'd be a frickin perfect fit and he'd be jacked up to be here.
The fact that he'd be a perfect fit is exactly why UA will find a way to totally overlook him.
This post was edited on 2/20/19 at 3:18 pm
Posted on 2/20/19 at 3:20 pm to DT55Forever1
quote:
Second for me on your list would be Johnny Dawkins. Learned from one of the best.
Dawkins is a no for me. UCF is painful to watch, and they're just riding a veteran squad at the moment.
Posted on 2/20/19 at 3:21 pm to SummerOfGeorge
Would like Dawkins, played and coached under Coach K
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