re: Alabama Board Coronavirus Thread

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I think both sides are full of shite and cherry picking info to support their views instead of just trying to find a solution. If something appears helpful but isn't the correct doctrine, suppress it. How absolutely ridiculous!

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Versus a man that dresses and believes he is a woman?

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If you feel better being a woman, go for it.

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Or convincing children (especially boys) that they are a different sex when they are born a specific sex?

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If you are actively trying to convince children that they should be a different sex/gender, then yes.

Was this supposed to be some kind of "gotcha"?

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He's been the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases since 1984. He didn't just kind of randomly show up during coronavirus. He was one of if not the leading American public health official during the HIV/AIDs epidemic and during Ebola. He's been writing papers and journals and reports and studies on how to respond to the next viral pandemic for 25+ years.

You can debate how good he's been or whether he is effective, but he's certainly the most experienced high level infectious disease individual in American Public Health. That isn't really a debate.

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Or we could write him off as being a Democrat operative doing Nancy Pelosi's bidding and instead listen to the lunatic doctor from Nigeria whose social media accounts are loaded with pro-Trump propaganda and who has publicly stated numerous absolutely batshit insane beliefs such as demons causing gynecological diseases and alien DNA being administered to patients in many medical treatments. I mean, it's pretty obvious who we need to be listening to.

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You are welcome to disagree with him, but acting like promoting a study literally done by the US FDA is some sort of shady move is pretty silly.

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The beauty of a conspiracy is that the complete lack of any evidence serves as proof that the conspiracy exists. That's why you will never be able to convince people who believe in a conspiracy that there isn't one. Every piece of evidence that is doesn't exist is nothing more than proof of the sophistication and breadth of the conspiracy.

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My big disagreement with Faucci is that he doesn't think before he speaks. He has to realize that in the spotlight he was thrust into, people hang on his every word as the truth and critical information. It's not academia, you can't speak your thoughts and ideas and theories out loud. Then say the opposite tomorrow because you've changed your position. I understand he's doing it based on data flow and because it's anew disease, the data keeps changing. But he should have learned very early in this process that he is now a public figure and doesn't get to flip flop without causing an uproar. If the data is incomplete, either say nothing at all, or qualify what you say as best guess or something. He sucks at that. Instead, he says things as factual, but then tomorrow, the facts changed. He's losing credibility and his bully pulpit to effect some good policy against COVID. As a matter of fact, I'd say many people ignore his edicts for that very reason. He has lost his ability to function in a helpful manner because of too many earlier missteps.

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I agree with you 100% - that is also my biggest frustration with him. Another one of those instances was back when they did the whole "don't use masks" and then later said, "well, we just didn't want people to overload and run out of masks". I mean you can't do that. There has to be a level of understanding that you need to be measured, calm and strike a balance between giving information and not just saying everything you know or think you might know. Especially not in this environment.

I like that he seems to enjoy talking about these things and really does (at least to me) seem to just want to talk about the virus and science and everything around it. It reminds me a lot of Saban when somebody asks him a detailed football question and his eyes light up. But, like you said, he has to understand that every single one of these media conversations he has is being picked with a comb. Anything he says that is different or new or suggests something will be very taken as massive news. That kind of sucks, because I find it interesting to hear him discuss some of that stuff, but it is what it is and he HAS to adapt (even though it's past the point of no return now, unfortunately).

And the whole throwing out the first pitch at the Nats game thing was just a massive PR blunder. I have no clue how anyone could have thought that was a good idea.

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BNO Newsroom
@BNODesk
BREAKING: Hunger caused by coronavirus and its restrictions are leading to the deaths of 10,000 more children a month, UN estimates - AP

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BNO Newsroom
@BNODesk
In addition to deaths, the pandemic is causing more than 550,000 additional children each month to be struck by severe malnutrition, according to the UN

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HOUNDE, Burkina Faso (AP) — The lean season is coming for Burkina Faso’s children. And this time, the long wait for the harvest is bringing a hunger more ferocious than most have ever known.

That hunger is already stalking Haboue Solange Boue, an infant who has lost half her former body weight of 5.5 pounds (2.5 kilograms) in the last month. With the markets closed because of coronavirus restrictions, her family sold fewer vegetables. Her mother is too malnourished to nurse her.

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AP News

As I continue to state there is way more here at stake than what people want to recognize.

You just nailed him perfectly George.

Now, in an effort to turn the thread more on topic, despite the headlines the news isn't all bad. Alabama's 7 day new case average has been dropping for over a week now. On a related note, Bamatracker updates their Rt values on Wednesday. It was 1.14 on 7/1 but had fallen to 1.01 by 7/22 - the lowest number since May 6th. It could well be back below the magic 1 when they update tomorrow.

Hope the trend holds.

There's growing evidence that herd immunity is much more attainable than first thought. Initial estimates were a 60-70% based on little more than some basic knowledge of the disease, similar viral illnesses, etc. In short, it was more or less just a guesstimate and an intimidating one. Nobody could stomach the cost both in terms of dollars and human costs associated with that number.

But using the data gathered from previous hot spots like Italy, Spain, and New York, it is appearing more and more likely that the real figure for herd immunity might be as low as 20% and is more likely somewhere between 20 and 40%. Using antibody testing and other numbers from the outbreak, scientists have determined that while efforts such as hand washing, masks and social distancing made an impact, more of the cause for the precipitous drop in cases is these places approaching the threshold for herd immunity. Testing has revealed that as many as 25% of the population in these places have had the virus and the reason for the drop in cases is the virus is running out of vulnerable people to infect.

Some of the theories postulated about the virus that fit the evidence include certain segments of the population being much more susceptible to contracting the virus than others and this subset requires much less exposure to become infected. Once established in this group, COVID spreads rapidly until it burns through the great majority of this segment. The less susceptible group is harder to infect and takes a larger viral challenge, which is why masks are a tool to help fight the spread, since they reduce the number of viral particles that an infected person is capable of spreading through droplet means and it reduces the amount of viral particles that can enter your mouth and nose. If you limit this group's exposure to minimum levels, they don't become infected and the R rate of the disease falls and it burns itself out. Or they get a mild or asymptomatic case and they develop immunity, at least for a while.

The TL;DR version is places like Italy and New York are probably at or near the threshold of herd immunity for the less vulnerable segment of the population. Recent hot spots like Florida and the Sun Belt are approaching that point as evidenced by many areas 7 day average case numbers plateauing or trending lower. Areas that have managed to keep case numbers down are now showing uptrends as they haven't gone through the burnout phase of the illness yet and are just getting started. It's not a concrete fact yet, but the evidence is large and growing and fits nearly every parameter very neatly. There is growing optimism that many areas are closer to the end of the crisis than the beginning. The disease will remain around and there will be outbreaks just as there is with any viral illness that is not completely preventable, but the dreaded second wave may not materialize as feared.

Sweden Unveils ‘Promising’ Covid-19 Data as New Cases Plunge

LINK

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The Health Agency of Sweden says that since hitting a peak in late June, the infection rate has fallen sharply. That’s amid an increase in testing over the period. “The curves are going down and the curves for the seriously ill are beginning to approach zero,” Tegnell said.

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As predicted, the so-called experts missed the mark by a great deal.