re: Alabama Basketball Megathread | 26-7 (16-2)

Theyre gonna embarrass us in a couple weeks lol

I think we will try that some too, but i'm worried that Rojas will foul out in 5 minutes.

ESPN BPI has us at 60.5% in this matchup.

Haslam

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W. KENTUCKY IN POSSESSION:

There isn't much of an advantage either way here when W. Kentucky is in possession of the basketball. This site rates Alabama to be 64th in the nation in defensive efficiency, while W. Kentucky is currently our #76 squad in offensive efficiency.

SHOT SELECTION: The shot preferences of these two teams contrast somewhat on this end of the floor. The W. Kentucky offense has a slight preference for inside shots over those from longer-distance, while the Alabama defense conversely tends to allow marginally more opportunities from the outside. Against the Alabama defense, this site projects that the shot makeup of the W. Kentucky offense will be 30.1% three-pointers (7.5% below the D1 average), 34.0% mid-range jumpers (5.7% above the D1 average), and 35.9% near-proximity twos (1.8% above the D1 average).

SHOOTING PERCENTAGE: W. Kentucky does a pretty good job to convert shots each possession, ranking 43rd in the country in overall field goal percentage. The Alabama defense, meanwhile, sports one of college basketball's better defensive field goal percentages, ranking 54th in the country in that category. On this end of the court, the W. Kentucky offense has a notable advantage in near-proximity shooting, while the Alabama defense has the edge in both three-point shooting and mid-range shooting. This site expects W. Kentucky to shoot 31.1% from three (2.2% below the D1 average), 30.6% from the mid-range (6.7% below the D1 average), 65.1% from near-proximity locations (6.0% above the D1 average), and 43.1% overall (0.1% below the D1 average).

REBOUNDING: W. Kentucky appears to hold a significant rebounding edge on this end of the court. W. Kentucky has the fingerprint of a team that's above-average, yet not outstanding, on the offensive glass. They are also somewhat above-average at turning second-chance opportunities into points (rated 87th nationally in second-chance conversion percentage). Alabama, meanwhile, has the look of a team that is pretty mediocre on the defensive boards, but they've been a little bit worse when trying to suppress foes' second-chance conversion rates (rated #260 in defensive second-chance conversion percentage).

TURNOVERS: Neither team has much of an advantage in this category. On offense, W. Kentucky protects the basketball pretty well and won't cough up the rock too many times. Their rating for potential quick points allowed off steals is particularly solid, as the squad places 32nd in the country in that category. As for the opposition, the Alabama D is probably a bit more aggressive than average in Division I basketball. They are accomplished to a degree at converting turnovers into quick points on the scoreboard (nationally ranked 53rd in that category).

FREE THROWS: These two squads are matched fairly evenly in this department. W. Kentucky obtains a fairly average number of chances from the charity stripe (nationally ranked #139 in free throw attempt rate), though they're very impressive converting from there (76.0%, ranked #44 in Division I). As for the opposition, the contentious Alabama defense surprisingly won't commit that many personal fouls and ranks 58th in the country in defensive free throw attempt rate.

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ALABAMA IN POSSESSION:

When pitted against the W. Kentucky defense, the Alabama offense appears to have somewhat of an advantage. The Alabama offense is ranked #32 in Division I, while W. Kentucky comes in nationally at #128 on defense.

SHOT SELECTION: There are comparable shot preferences for these two units on this end of the floor. The Alabama offense exhibits a slight preference for perimeter shots over inside ones, while the W. Kentucky defense similarly tends to allow more opportunities from the outside. Against the W. Kentucky defense, this site forecasts that the shot breakdown of the Alabama offense will be 44.3% three-pointers (6.7% above the D1 average), 21.8% mid-range jumpers (6.5% below the D1 average), and 33.9% near-proximity twos (0.2% below the D1 average).

SHOOTING PERCENTAGE: Alabama has been a bit above the D1 average in floor shooting this year and is rated our #92 team in overall field goal percentage. Meanwhile, the W. Kentucky defense rates as somewhat average in defensive field goal conversion rate (ranked #151 nationally in that category). On this end of the court, the Alabama offense has an analytical edge in both three-point shooting and mid-range shooting, while the two opposing units are rated fairly evenly in near-proximity shooting. We expect Alabama to shoot 36.2% from behind the arc (2.9% above the D1 average), 41.0% from mid-range locations (3.8% above the D1 average), 60.2% from near-proximity (1.1% above the D1 average), and 45.4% overall (2.2% above the D1 average).

REBOUNDING: The rebounding edge doesn't significantly go to either team in this contest. Alabama seems to be a bit better than the D1 norm when it comes to offensive rebounding. Additionally, they are very solid at converting their second chance opportunities, ranking 26th nationally in that category. The opposition here, W. Kentucky, appears a bit superior to the D1 average in the category of defensive rebounding, and they've similarly been fairly efficient in defensive second-chance conversion percentage (ranked 77th in the nation in that category).

TURNOVERS: The Alabama offense should keep the ball fairly secure here against the W. Kentucky defense. When in possession, Alabama exhibits fairly good ball-control and limits turnovers. Their field goal attempt rate is well above-average (rated 41st in the country), while their rating for potential quick points allowed off of steals is very solid (28th in the country). Meanwhile, the W. Kentucky D is neither aggressive nor conservative from a turnovers perspective. They are accomplished to a degree at converting turnovers into quick points on the scoreboard (nationally ranked 91st in that category).

FREE THROWS: There's a bit of a push here in this category. The Alabama offense has a nose for getting to the charity stripe (63rd in the country in free throw attempt rate), and they're above-average shooters from there (73.3%, 87th in the country). Meanwhile, the W. Kentucky D has been excellent at minimizing opponents' free throw opportunities, ranking tenth in the NCAA in defensive free throw attempt rate.

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THE X-FACTORS:

PACE: The tempo in a game between these two teams should be a bit faster than normal. Alabama (28th in the NCAA in game pace) favors a brisk tempo, while W. Kentucky (216th) likes things at more of an average clip.

AWAY/HOME COURT: W. Kentucky may fare better than expected here, as their performances away from home, on average, have been superior to their performances at home.

CONSISTENCY: W. Kentucky is one of the NCAA's more consistent teams, ranking 29th nationally in consistency. Alabama rates more in the middle of the pack.

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THE VERDICT:

This contest has the potential to be very competitive, but Alabama is the better team on this day. Alabama 79.57, W. Kentucky 71.22.

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Haslems canned verbage like a early 2000s video game always makes me laugh

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Haslems canned verbage like a early 2000s video game always makes me laugh

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Same.

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Rolled my eyes because of the choke job against Clemson and the quote saying it was our first close game, not about actually doing a good job finishing against FU.

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I'm afraid that we're gonna see some more of that type of game. Clemson and Stanford are two excellent defensive teams, and look how they controlled our offense (56 and 64 points). Again, you can't teach speed and quickness, but you can sure as hell do something about hustle and effort as long as you got kids like Rojas who want to earn minutes.
I hope Coach uses the 2nd half of the Furman game to send a message to the more complacent players on the team...pretty sure he will!

I haven’t been able to watch much of the last two games, for various reasons, so I’ve been looking for around some stats to sort of make up for it.

I don’t know a whole lot about this site: LINK but there were a few interesting things there.

One, we’re shooting terribly. That was pretty obvious. 29.7% from 3 as a team. Rojas and Reese are, respectively, shooting 27% and 23% from 3 A combined 9-37.

Somehow our adjusted offensive efficiency isn’t that bad, I guess partially cause we’re not turning it over that terribly often (which doesn’t seem to fit, but I didn’t watch a second of the Clemson game and missed most of the Furman game).

Bruner doesn’t play very many minutes. At 51% of available minutes (basically the same as Primo), and he hasn’t played over 26 in a single game according to ESPN.

The shooting should sort it itself out some (we’re not shooting 29% from 3 for the year), but I guess the question will be finding a balance with lineups that can score and defend. I wonder if we see less and less of Quinerly-Shackelford minutes unless they start defending better.

Yeah. that experiment is over imo

Nice. Hopefully this lights a fire under JQ.


Shack should have been benched too