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2024 Alabama Offense/Defense vs 2023 Alabama Offense/Defense (Advanced Metrics)
Posted on 11/21/24 at 10:37 am
Posted on 11/21/24 at 10:37 am
DB Havoc is the percentage of plays in which the defense defended or intercepted a pass.
Front Seven Havoc is the percentage of plays in which the defense forced a fumble or a TFL.
Predicted Points Added (PPA) uses Predicted Points to measure the outcome of a play. It takes the PP value from the beginning of a play (e.g. 2nd and 5 at the 50) and subtracts it from the PP value resulting from the play (e.g. rush for 10 yards results in 1st and 10 from the 40).
Success Rate is an efficiency metric that determines the success of a play. Successful plays meet one of the following criteria:
the offense scored
1st downs which gain at least 50% of the yards to go
2nd downs which gain at least 70% of the yards to go
3rd and 4th downs which gain at least 100% of the yards to go
Line Yards attempts to measure the number of running yards which are attributed to the offensive line. Yards are weighted as follows:
losses - 120%
0-4 yards from LOS - 100%
5-10 yards from LOS - 50%
11+ yards from LOW - 0+
Pt Per Opportunity is the average points scored on all offensive drives in which the ball has been advanced past the defense's 40 yard line.
Front Seven Havoc is the percentage of plays in which the defense forced a fumble or a TFL.
Predicted Points Added (PPA) uses Predicted Points to measure the outcome of a play. It takes the PP value from the beginning of a play (e.g. 2nd and 5 at the 50) and subtracts it from the PP value resulting from the play (e.g. rush for 10 yards results in 1st and 10 from the 40).
Success Rate is an efficiency metric that determines the success of a play. Successful plays meet one of the following criteria:
the offense scored
1st downs which gain at least 50% of the yards to go
2nd downs which gain at least 70% of the yards to go
3rd and 4th downs which gain at least 100% of the yards to go
Line Yards attempts to measure the number of running yards which are attributed to the offensive line. Yards are weighted as follows:
losses - 120%
0-4 yards from LOS - 100%
5-10 yards from LOS - 50%
11+ yards from LOW - 0+
Pt Per Opportunity is the average points scored on all offensive drives in which the ball has been advanced past the defense's 40 yard line.
This post was edited on 11/21/24 at 10:39 am
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Posted on 11/21/24 at 10:37 am to SummerOfGeorge
- More explosive
- Better at scoring when we get into scoring position (DeBoer's teams have always been elite at this and it's huge to modern football)
- Better on standard downs (this number has made a nice increase the last 3 games) and more "successful" in general (less negative/0 yard type plays)
- More consistently get success on pass plays ---- much less "boom or bust"
- Jalen isn't going to win games when he is consistently in passing down situations (2nd and long, 3rd and 6+). Just not there as a passer last year or this year.
- Running back run game looks like it took a step back, but if you isolate the first 4 weeks vs the last 5 then you see we were the worst in the country in Line Yards (yards the OL is responsible for - basically yards before contact) and the last 4-5 weeks we've been in the Top 30. Clear improvement.
Summary ---- It's just a tighter operation, seems to less of a figuring things out on the fly or trying to work with parts that you clearly aren't comfortable with than last year. Still not perfect, but even with all the frustration at times a much more consistent operation. Pretty impressive for a team breaking in new backs and receivers (and of course new coaches).
Pretty wild that the stats play out exactly to how Wommack's defense was sold.
- more successful plays allowed
- less explosive plays allowed (lower PPA and explosive rate)
- better in the red zone to limit scoring (much better pt per opportunity)
- Worse on passing downs mostly because of the young DBs.
- Worse havoc rate up front, higher havoc rate with DBs
This post was edited on 11/21/24 at 10:38 am
Posted on 11/21/24 at 1:27 pm to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
Just not there as a passer last year or this year.
Or ever.
Posted on 11/21/24 at 3:23 pm to PuertoRicanBlaze
Too bad the coaching staff didn't realize that before they had him throw the ball 45 times against Tennessee.
Posted on 11/21/24 at 3:42 pm to remaster916
So almost an across-the-board improvement in all aspects of offensive efficiency, and basically holding serve on defense. Not bad at all for an all-new coaching staff.
I know we'd all like the defense to be better, but it's hard to complain about where it stands right now. The defense in 2023 wasn't lights-out, but it played much better overall than in recent years.
It's gonna be interesting to see how well the offense performs against Oklahoma. I'm worried that game will be a dogfight, especially if we regress on offense.
I know we'd all like the defense to be better, but it's hard to complain about where it stands right now. The defense in 2023 wasn't lights-out, but it played much better overall than in recent years.
It's gonna be interesting to see how well the offense performs against Oklahoma. I'm worried that game will be a dogfight, especially if we regress on offense.
Posted on 11/21/24 at 3:46 pm to Sauron
OU held up well against Ole Miss. I think it’s gonna be a dogfight.
Posted on 11/21/24 at 3:47 pm to Diego Ricardo
Unfortunately I think that you are right. Milroe against their defense concerns me. As it should anyone with a functioning brain.
Posted on 11/21/24 at 3:53 pm to remaster916
quote:
Too bad the coaching staff didn't realize that before they had him throw the ball 45 times against Tennessee.
Devil’s advocate for the play caller, the backs were averaging 3 ypc and the relative weakness of Tennessee’s defense is the secondary. Not to mention the pre-snap penalties that make small gains running the ball pretty much worthless
Milroe missed a number of throws that might have turned the game.
This post was edited on 11/21/24 at 3:55 pm
Posted on 11/21/24 at 3:53 pm to Glorious
Our ability to generate takeaways looms large on this game.
Posted on 11/21/24 at 3:54 pm to Glorious
Yep. That was by far his worst performance as the starting quarterback going back to the Texas game last season. He also was tentative about taking off when there were clear rushing lanes.
Posted on 11/21/24 at 9:35 pm to remaster916
quote:
Too bad the coaching staff didn't realize that before they had him throw the ball 45 times against Tennessee.
I assume they figured he'd eventually see at least one of the receivers or tight ends that was open for a mile on almost every other play.
Posted on 11/22/24 at 8:33 am to Diego Ricardo
It’s two games:
We get after them and score putting it away early
Or
It’s an absolute dogfight like South Carolina.
We get after them and score putting it away early
Or
It’s an absolute dogfight like South Carolina.
Posted on 11/22/24 at 9:09 am to CrimsonBoz
quote:
It’s two games:
We get after them and score putting it away early
Or
It’s an absolute dogfight like South Carolina.
That's my thought too. If our offense struggles at putting up touchdowns versus their defense, I suspect that they're going to "turtle" on offense to avoid their spate of costly turnovers against our takeaway prone defense. In that dynamic, I think their new OC will want to keep it close to the vest with the run but call a few trick plays to hit scoring position creating explosives.
If Alabama can start fast, they can force Oklahoma to open up on offense and take more risks. In that dynamic, Alabama's defense is at a big advantage because Oklahoma is a bit turnover prone. This is the path of another blowout on the road similar to LSU.
This is a big landmine game because at least Auburn has the rivalry advantage to sharpen focus. Oklahoma is not a rival, nobody on this squad has played in Norman before, and Oklahoma is not as untalented as their record suggests.
Posted on 11/22/24 at 9:24 am to Diego Ricardo
Posted on 11/22/24 at 9:28 am to bamatide07
quote:
Oklahoma will likely be without their top five wide receivers in this game.
They've been without them most of the season haven't they?
Posted on 11/22/24 at 9:30 am to FightingOkra
No, they had Deion Burks against Missouri. He suffered a concussion in the game. Their starting center is also out.
Posted on 11/22/24 at 11:23 am to bamatide07
Oklahoma gave up 151 yards rushing to Tennessee, 144 to AU, 177 to Texas, and 135 against Mizzou.
They did okay against South Carolina and Ole Miss on the ground, but gave up 311 through the air against Ole Miss.
The only overall impressive game on defense they had was against South Carolina, and Sellers wasn't healthy in that one.
I expect the defense to give Milroe and the offense a lot of opportunities with short fields. Oklahoma has been negative in turnover margin against every SEC team except Auburn. They are 124th in turnover margin against conference teams. Bama is 3rd.
Expect at least one pick six or fumble return for a TD, or close to it.
They did okay against South Carolina and Ole Miss on the ground, but gave up 311 through the air against Ole Miss.
The only overall impressive game on defense they had was against South Carolina, and Sellers wasn't healthy in that one.
I expect the defense to give Milroe and the offense a lot of opportunities with short fields. Oklahoma has been negative in turnover margin against every SEC team except Auburn. They are 124th in turnover margin against conference teams. Bama is 3rd.
Expect at least one pick six or fumble return for a TD, or close to it.
Posted on 11/22/24 at 11:38 am to JIB
As much as I hate to say it, the barn should have beaten OU. Thorne gave the game away with the pick six.
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