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re: *** 2023 Braves - World Series or Bust ***
Posted on 12/12/22 at 7:27 pm to Gideon Swashbuckler
Posted on 12/12/22 at 7:27 pm to Gideon Swashbuckler
Call me a homer, ignorant, or whatever you want, but I’m going to trust the GM of a team that just won their 5th straight division title over a random poster on the internet as to whether the Braves were swindled.
2
Posted on 12/12/22 at 7:57 pm to BamaBravesPackers
For those just checking in heres the trade
A's get:
C Manny Piña from Braves
LHP Kyle Muller from Braves (club's No. 1-ranked prospect)
RHP Freddy Tarnok from Braves (club's No. 6-ranked prospect)
RHP Royber Salinas from Braves (club's No. 18-ranked prospect)
Brewers get:
C William Contreras from Braves
RHP Justin Yeager from Braves
Braves get:
C Sean Murphy from A’s
A's get:
C Manny Piña from Braves
LHP Kyle Muller from Braves (club's No. 1-ranked prospect)
RHP Freddy Tarnok from Braves (club's No. 6-ranked prospect)
RHP Royber Salinas from Braves (club's No. 18-ranked prospect)
Brewers get:
C William Contreras from Braves
RHP Justin Yeager from Braves
Braves get:
C Sean Murphy from A’s
Posted on 12/13/22 at 1:45 am to BamaBravesPackers
quote:
Call me a homer, ignorant, or whatever you want, but I’m going to trust the GM of a team that just won their 5th straight division title over a random poster on the internet as to whether the Braves were swindled.
Cool story, bro.
Posted on 12/13/22 at 9:07 am to RollTide33
LINK
Watch the headline video on mlb.com. Big boost for the Brewers. Braves? Nope.
We could have gotten a much different and better return for what we gave up. Now, we have no trading options to move for what we need. After the trade, Alex was interviewed and he starting boosting up Grissom and Arcia. So, apparently, we aren't getting anything comparable to Swanson at short. We have two contracts in Ozuna and Rosario that need to be dumped and we need a left fielder. We now have no one to trade for that outfielder. We probably won't overpay for any of the starting pitchers on the market. So, we are left hoping that Soroka will get healthy and back to where he was. Again, we can't trade for that pitcher because we have no one left to trade.
So, get ready. We are probably going to start next season with Grissom at short, Rosario in left (can't be Malloy-he was traded), Travis and Murphy swapping between catcher and DH and Ozuna coming off the bench for back up DH and pitch hitting. Someone needs to explain how this makes us a better team next season and makes us competitive with the Phillies and Mets considering what they've added.
Still hoping that Alex can pull something off to help the team out but yesterday's move makes that a lot less likely.
Watch the headline video on mlb.com. Big boost for the Brewers. Braves? Nope.
We could have gotten a much different and better return for what we gave up. Now, we have no trading options to move for what we need. After the trade, Alex was interviewed and he starting boosting up Grissom and Arcia. So, apparently, we aren't getting anything comparable to Swanson at short. We have two contracts in Ozuna and Rosario that need to be dumped and we need a left fielder. We now have no one to trade for that outfielder. We probably won't overpay for any of the starting pitchers on the market. So, we are left hoping that Soroka will get healthy and back to where he was. Again, we can't trade for that pitcher because we have no one left to trade.
So, get ready. We are probably going to start next season with Grissom at short, Rosario in left (can't be Malloy-he was traded), Travis and Murphy swapping between catcher and DH and Ozuna coming off the bench for back up DH and pitch hitting. Someone needs to explain how this makes us a better team next season and makes us competitive with the Phillies and Mets considering what they've added.
Still hoping that Alex can pull something off to help the team out but yesterday's move makes that a lot less likely.
This post was edited on 12/13/22 at 9:20 am
Posted on 12/13/22 at 10:34 am to DT55Forever1
The downgrade offensively isn't as bad as you make it out while the defensive upgrade is significant. Murphy has played in one of the worst hitter parks for his entire career. I love Contreras, but we are talking about a 300+ plate appearance sample. Can he duplicate that season? He over performed his xwOBA for the season. I keep seeing people saying why would we trade an all-star catcher? We didn't. We traded an injury replacement all-star DH.
I keep seeing this about LF/DH. There are $46 million reasons why Rosario and Ozuna may still be in this picture as bad as everyone wants to forget that. AA's comments today give me some hope that they might dump one of them, but until they do, you better be hoping that Rosario can bounce back.
This trade makes a lot of sense. It still sucks to trade a popular player, but Murphy isn't just a defensive player.
I also think a lot of people are overvaluing the prospects we gave up. Yes we gave up our #1 ranked prospect in Muller. But while he's the #1 in our farm system he's outside the top 100 in MLB prospects. Our farm system just isn't very good right now. It's possible we couldn't get the quality LF/SS we wanted for what we had to offer.
I keep seeing this about LF/DH. There are $46 million reasons why Rosario and Ozuna may still be in this picture as bad as everyone wants to forget that. AA's comments today give me some hope that they might dump one of them, but until they do, you better be hoping that Rosario can bounce back.
This trade makes a lot of sense. It still sucks to trade a popular player, but Murphy isn't just a defensive player.
I also think a lot of people are overvaluing the prospects we gave up. Yes we gave up our #1 ranked prospect in Muller. But while he's the #1 in our farm system he's outside the top 100 in MLB prospects. Our farm system just isn't very good right now. It's possible we couldn't get the quality LF/SS we wanted for what we had to offer.
Posted on 12/13/22 at 10:57 am to RollTide33
Yeah I think the trade is fine unless you wanted to move those prospects for some else.
Contreras was a part time player who would never see 500 at bats in Atlanta and he benefited from a deep line up.
I think the change in circumstances impacts them both. We will see how Contreras manages a full pitching staff and being the primary power producer in Milwaukee's batting order. Murphy comes to Atlanta to a better hitters park with a much deeper lineup. He should account for way more outs by pitch frame and less runners on base due to that and preventing stolen bases. Trh video on MLB mentioned how strong is WAR is.
We should be better however I'm not sure you do this if you could have used those pieces to improve in other areas.
My concern is still pitching. Did anyone see the rumor on MLB that Fried maybe on the trading block. What is this rotation and bullpen going to be?
Contreras was a part time player who would never see 500 at bats in Atlanta and he benefited from a deep line up.
I think the change in circumstances impacts them both. We will see how Contreras manages a full pitching staff and being the primary power producer in Milwaukee's batting order. Murphy comes to Atlanta to a better hitters park with a much deeper lineup. He should account for way more outs by pitch frame and less runners on base due to that and preventing stolen bases. Trh video on MLB mentioned how strong is WAR is.
We should be better however I'm not sure you do this if you could have used those pieces to improve in other areas.
My concern is still pitching. Did anyone see the rumor on MLB that Fried maybe on the trading block. What is this rotation and bullpen going to be?
This post was edited on 12/13/22 at 11:24 am
Posted on 12/13/22 at 11:30 am to DT55Forever1
I understand your angle but maybe let the shock wear off a little and then consider the following:
With the new rules this year (only two throws to hold runnners at first) stolen base attempts are about to skyrocket this season, and Murphy has the second best poptime (glove to second base) in all of MLB. That alone is HUGE especially, especially, when it comes to playoff baseball. Look how Realmuto absolutely shut the Braves and everyone else they played down on the basepaths. Having a catcher that can shut down the run game is going to be huge moving forward if you want an immediate advantage in a playoff series.
Catcher is also the only position that can make 12 other players better. The upgrade relative to pitch framing is something that is very hard to quantify. Balls on the black or off the plate become strike three or 0-2 counts instead of becoming hitter counts - the Braves have been atrocious in this department for years. (to the point I became convinced there is a conspiracy against the Braves, but really it's just our catchers have been awful pitch framers) Again, think of all the questionable strikes Realmuto would get for his pitching staff- really hard to put a value on that in a five game series, but it makes every pitcher on their staff better players. That's a lot of value.
So, if you want to win a World Series you better have a stud behind the plate, and now the Braves have arguably the second best catcher in baseball.
Oakland is THE WORST ballpark for right handed hitters in all of MLB so his splits are supported by that fact. He will see an instant uptick playing in Atlanta. He will also see an instant uptick batting in a lineup that can protect him instead of him being the only bat the A's had in an awful lineup. More HR's, RBIs, and runs scored almost assuredly.
Now AA presser and Grissom- I agree it looks like Arcia and Grissom will compete for SS this spring, but Ron Washington is saying Grissom can play SS. AA says Wash doesn't blow smoke up his arse so... why would anyone doubt Wash ? If he says Grissom can play SS then I believe Grissom can play SS. Is Swanson 150 million dollars better at SS than Grissom ? I doubt it. We could also use Arcia late in games with the lead as a defensive substitution to protect Grissom a little during the season. I'm fine with this.
Dont pay Swanson 150 million based on a career year, take Rosario and Ozuna off the books and now you've got all the money you need to lock up Murphy, Fried, and a big time left fielder for next season.
Let's wait and see if Wash is correct on Grissom. If Grissom holds down SS then we are in great shape with a title contending team that also has money in the coffers for future deals at the all star break or beyond.
With the new rules this year (only two throws to hold runnners at first) stolen base attempts are about to skyrocket this season, and Murphy has the second best poptime (glove to second base) in all of MLB. That alone is HUGE especially, especially, when it comes to playoff baseball. Look how Realmuto absolutely shut the Braves and everyone else they played down on the basepaths. Having a catcher that can shut down the run game is going to be huge moving forward if you want an immediate advantage in a playoff series.
Catcher is also the only position that can make 12 other players better. The upgrade relative to pitch framing is something that is very hard to quantify. Balls on the black or off the plate become strike three or 0-2 counts instead of becoming hitter counts - the Braves have been atrocious in this department for years. (to the point I became convinced there is a conspiracy against the Braves, but really it's just our catchers have been awful pitch framers) Again, think of all the questionable strikes Realmuto would get for his pitching staff- really hard to put a value on that in a five game series, but it makes every pitcher on their staff better players. That's a lot of value.
So, if you want to win a World Series you better have a stud behind the plate, and now the Braves have arguably the second best catcher in baseball.
Oakland is THE WORST ballpark for right handed hitters in all of MLB so his splits are supported by that fact. He will see an instant uptick playing in Atlanta. He will also see an instant uptick batting in a lineup that can protect him instead of him being the only bat the A's had in an awful lineup. More HR's, RBIs, and runs scored almost assuredly.
Now AA presser and Grissom- I agree it looks like Arcia and Grissom will compete for SS this spring, but Ron Washington is saying Grissom can play SS. AA says Wash doesn't blow smoke up his arse so... why would anyone doubt Wash ? If he says Grissom can play SS then I believe Grissom can play SS. Is Swanson 150 million dollars better at SS than Grissom ? I doubt it. We could also use Arcia late in games with the lead as a defensive substitution to protect Grissom a little during the season. I'm fine with this.
Dont pay Swanson 150 million based on a career year, take Rosario and Ozuna off the books and now you've got all the money you need to lock up Murphy, Fried, and a big time left fielder for next season.
Let's wait and see if Wash is correct on Grissom. If Grissom holds down SS then we are in great shape with a title contending team that also has money in the coffers for future deals at the all star break or beyond.
Posted on 12/13/22 at 11:56 am to RollTide33
quote:
There are $46 million reasons why Rosario and Ozuna may still be in this picture as bad as everyone wants to forget that.
Ozuna has been a PR nightmare, and Rosario had a wasted season last year, but they are still A: a guy that nearly won a triple crown two years ago and B: a guy that single handedly beat the dodgers and lead the way to a title
Ozuna is in elite territory with his average exit velocity, but in the absolute bottom of BABIP. He really has been unlucky. I think if he has a season where he manages not to get arrested, and manages to miss a few gloves he could be a middle of the pack or better DH.
Meanwhile It's hard to imagine Rosario isn't going to bounce back. The guy has always been able to hit.
I'd be surprised if Duvall isn't brought back on a one year deal for his glove.
This team has plenty of offense, and this will be the best bullpen we've ever had. Braves are loaded IMO. I'm not following the fanbase melt.
Posted on 12/13/22 at 12:00 pm to PowHound
quote:
Meanwhile It's hard to imagine Rosario isn't going to bounce back. The guy has always been able to hit.
You think Rozario is going to have a bounce-back season next year?
I may be really optimistic but I'm sure he'll be back to hitting well
Posted on 12/13/22 at 12:06 pm to PowHound
quote:
This team has plenty of offense, and this will be the best bullpen we've ever had. Braves are loaded IMO. I'm not following the fanbase melt.
Is Allard, Santana and Jimenez that much of an upgrade? I get addition by subtraction but it still doesn't feel like to me we have that guy you can feel confident to hand it over to at the end. I think it is deep up and down but I still have concerns for those big time outs.
Posted on 12/13/22 at 12:14 pm to Carlton
quote:
but it still doesn't feel like to me we have that guy you can feel confident to hand it over to at the end.
Iglesias was one of the most if not THE most dominant bullpen arm in the league after joining the Braves last year. I think he had a sub 1. era.
No matter, Iglesias is going to be the best closer we've had since Kimbrel. He's legit.
He's a big time upgrade over Jansen and Will Smith
Jimenez had one of the highest K's/9 in all of baseball last year. He's going to miss a lot of bats. With the shifts going away this year strikeouts just got a lot more valuable. Yes Jimenez is the big RHP we needed for getting out of trouble late.
Posted on 12/13/22 at 1:16 pm to PowHound
I like having Iglesias but I am also not completely sold. He has a solid history as a closer but it would be hard for him to come close to replicating the incredible numbers as a set up man last year as a closer again. I would be happy if he blows it out the water like he did the end of last year but I am not nearly as confident as you are.
Posted on 12/13/22 at 1:48 pm to RollTide33
Contreras is a 35-40 home run projected player. Before someone says you can't plan on projections, that's exactly what people are doing by saying Murphy is going to hit better in the Braves ball park. I'll admit, I have not looked at his splits home/away. I just know he's hit
.245
.233
.216
.250
in his 4 seasons with no more than 18 home runs in a season.
I agree he is an upgrade defensively, but he's splitting time with Travis.
The LF/DH situation is a mess and to hope that Ozuna and/or Rosario are going to bounce back or we can trade them and their contracts for anything of value is grasping at straws.
And yes, our farm system value is not where it should be. And it's a lot less valuable today. There's nothing left to offer. Our only option now is to overpay for someone or start floating Max's name out in trade talks to get something we need. We better pray that Grissom can play a full season and be productive. I feel he will be fine defensively but he really struggled hitting the latter part of the season to the point of not playing.
The way it's trending, we'll be trading Max for a back up third baseman and a bag of magic beans.
My biggest point and issue with this is the fact that we didn't have a NEED at catcher. A better defensive catcher will be nice but he's never worked one pitch with any of our pitchers and no one knows for sure that he will hit better in Atlanta and the National league. We've seen plenty of guys change leagues and really struggle.
I felt like Contreras was progressing just fine and was a legitimate replacement for Travis.
We however do have a need in left field, shortstop and starting pitching. We haven't addressed any of those positions. Grissom/Arcia might step up and surprise us. Those that are honest know that Ozuna and Rosario are not the answer in left or DH. I just wished we had used the assets we had to get someone at one of those positions.
.245
.233
.216
.250
in his 4 seasons with no more than 18 home runs in a season.
I agree he is an upgrade defensively, but he's splitting time with Travis.
The LF/DH situation is a mess and to hope that Ozuna and/or Rosario are going to bounce back or we can trade them and their contracts for anything of value is grasping at straws.
And yes, our farm system value is not where it should be. And it's a lot less valuable today. There's nothing left to offer. Our only option now is to overpay for someone or start floating Max's name out in trade talks to get something we need. We better pray that Grissom can play a full season and be productive. I feel he will be fine defensively but he really struggled hitting the latter part of the season to the point of not playing.
The way it's trending, we'll be trading Max for a back up third baseman and a bag of magic beans.
My biggest point and issue with this is the fact that we didn't have a NEED at catcher. A better defensive catcher will be nice but he's never worked one pitch with any of our pitchers and no one knows for sure that he will hit better in Atlanta and the National league. We've seen plenty of guys change leagues and really struggle.
I felt like Contreras was progressing just fine and was a legitimate replacement for Travis.
We however do have a need in left field, shortstop and starting pitching. We haven't addressed any of those positions. Grissom/Arcia might step up and surprise us. Those that are honest know that Ozuna and Rosario are not the answer in left or DH. I just wished we had used the assets we had to get someone at one of those positions.
This post was edited on 12/13/22 at 2:10 pm
Posted on 12/14/22 at 7:18 am to DT55Forever1
Carlos to the Giants.
I expect to see Swanson land with the Dodgers or Cubs.
I expect to see Swanson land with the Dodgers or Cubs.
Posted on 12/14/22 at 7:29 am to DT55Forever1
Ive read Swanson is their man, (cubs) and they are willing to overpay to get him. I sure hope so. Seeing freeman and swanson both in dodger blue would be too weird. I guess the nlcs would be a hoot though.
Posted on 12/14/22 at 9:46 am to PowHound
Both Swanson and Freeman on the Dodgers is just yuck.
Posted on 12/16/22 at 3:05 pm to Carlton
Posted on 12/16/22 at 10:03 pm to DT55Forever1
Its just depth / options. It's zero risk basically zero cost. What's the problem ?
Braves just won a world series, and is rolling like it's the nineties, and you're down on the franchise and GM ? Does not compute.
Braves just won a world series, and is rolling like it's the nineties, and you're down on the franchise and GM ? Does not compute.
This post was edited on 12/16/22 at 11:31 pm
Posted on 12/16/22 at 10:05 pm to PowHound
FanGraphs has a number of different player projection systems they release before every season, but the two that are out so far believe Swanson will take a considerable step back in 2023, going from 6.4 fWAR to 3.3 fWAR.
A primary reason for that is Swanson’s defense. Last year, he was arguably the best defensive shortstop in all of baseball, earning a 21.4 rating defensively. That’s incredible, which is why he won his first Gold Glove, but FanGraphs doesn’t view that as sustainable, as they expect that number to drop all the way down to 4.9, which is much closer to his career averages. I don’t believe the drop will be that drastic, but the point remains: it will be very difficult for him to repeat the year he had defensively; in fact, it may not even be possible, given his next-best season in the category was a 9.6 in 2021.
Offensively, FanGraphs also projects Swanson to regress. He’s coming off his best season with the stick, in which he recorded a 116 wRC+ (16% above league average). FanGraphs has that falling back down to 104, which is still 10 points higher than his career average. A big reason for that is Swanson’s BABIP luck in 2022. He recorded a .348 average on his batted balls in play, which is WAY above what is considered league average of .300. For his career, Swanson has hit .317 on balls hit in play, so there is reason to expect a substantial dip in this number next season.
As far as offense goes, FanGraphs actually projects Grissom to be the better player in 2023. In the 41 games he played in 2022, he posted a 121 wRC+, which was higher than Swanson, and FanGraphs believes that is sustainable, as they predict him to end 2023 with a 111 wRC+ over a full slate of games — again, higher than Swanson.
Given Grissom’s small sample size at the major-league level, this is an aggressive projection, but I don’t find it too ridiculous. Grissom dominated the minors offensively, never recording a wRC+ below 120. Of course, all of that came in AA and below, since he never played a game in AAA before being called to Atlanta.
Defensively is where the gap will be much wider. Grissom ended 2022 with a -4.1 defensive rating and that was at second base. Who knows how he will handle the adjustment to shortstop, but Ron Washington seems to believe he’s ready to take the reins if needed. FanGraphs projects Grissom to earn a 1.1 rating in 2023.
If that’s the case, the decision to move on from Swanson is a no-brainer.
A primary reason for that is Swanson’s defense. Last year, he was arguably the best defensive shortstop in all of baseball, earning a 21.4 rating defensively. That’s incredible, which is why he won his first Gold Glove, but FanGraphs doesn’t view that as sustainable, as they expect that number to drop all the way down to 4.9, which is much closer to his career averages. I don’t believe the drop will be that drastic, but the point remains: it will be very difficult for him to repeat the year he had defensively; in fact, it may not even be possible, given his next-best season in the category was a 9.6 in 2021.
Offensively, FanGraphs also projects Swanson to regress. He’s coming off his best season with the stick, in which he recorded a 116 wRC+ (16% above league average). FanGraphs has that falling back down to 104, which is still 10 points higher than his career average. A big reason for that is Swanson’s BABIP luck in 2022. He recorded a .348 average on his batted balls in play, which is WAY above what is considered league average of .300. For his career, Swanson has hit .317 on balls hit in play, so there is reason to expect a substantial dip in this number next season.
As far as offense goes, FanGraphs actually projects Grissom to be the better player in 2023. In the 41 games he played in 2022, he posted a 121 wRC+, which was higher than Swanson, and FanGraphs believes that is sustainable, as they predict him to end 2023 with a 111 wRC+ over a full slate of games — again, higher than Swanson.
Given Grissom’s small sample size at the major-league level, this is an aggressive projection, but I don’t find it too ridiculous. Grissom dominated the minors offensively, never recording a wRC+ below 120. Of course, all of that came in AA and below, since he never played a game in AAA before being called to Atlanta.
Defensively is where the gap will be much wider. Grissom ended 2022 with a -4.1 defensive rating and that was at second base. Who knows how he will handle the adjustment to shortstop, but Ron Washington seems to believe he’s ready to take the reins if needed. FanGraphs projects Grissom to earn a 1.1 rating in 2023.
If that’s the case, the decision to move on from Swanson is a no-brainer.
Posted on 12/16/22 at 10:53 pm to PowHound
It's season to season and the numbers do compute. Have you looked at the numbers for that depth we just gave money and possibly a player for? Again, we can better use our resources.
Mets and Phils have improved this off season and we have not. We also got dumped in the playoffs this past season by one of those teams. In today's game, you can go from World Series to out of playoffs quickly.
And once again, like assuming Murphy will hit better in Atlanta and a whole different league, we're now assuming Grissom will be better than Swanson.
I'd prefer to put money and trade pieces toward players with a history of productivity. Hopefully, Grissom will do well but no one knows really. He lost nearly all his playing time toward the end of the season due to his play.
If people are honest, the Braves let Swanson go because they don't want to pay the extra tax by going over the payroll threshold. It's likely why no free agent of value have been signed. We could have used either of the 2 free agent outfielders that signed with other teams today. Braves don't want to pay for it and have no trade pieces left.
Lastly, I don't have a problem with letting Swanson go if they feel he has peaked but he's not been replaced with a proven player of equal or greater value.
The beauty of it is that ultimately it doesn't matter what I or anyone thinks about any of this stuff. It will all play out next season and hopefully the Braves will top the division and do well in the playoffs.
Mets and Phils have improved this off season and we have not. We also got dumped in the playoffs this past season by one of those teams. In today's game, you can go from World Series to out of playoffs quickly.
And once again, like assuming Murphy will hit better in Atlanta and a whole different league, we're now assuming Grissom will be better than Swanson.
I'd prefer to put money and trade pieces toward players with a history of productivity. Hopefully, Grissom will do well but no one knows really. He lost nearly all his playing time toward the end of the season due to his play.
If people are honest, the Braves let Swanson go because they don't want to pay the extra tax by going over the payroll threshold. It's likely why no free agent of value have been signed. We could have used either of the 2 free agent outfielders that signed with other teams today. Braves don't want to pay for it and have no trade pieces left.
Lastly, I don't have a problem with letting Swanson go if they feel he has peaked but he's not been replaced with a proven player of equal or greater value.
The beauty of it is that ultimately it doesn't matter what I or anyone thinks about any of this stuff. It will all play out next season and hopefully the Braves will top the division and do well in the playoffs.
This post was edited on 12/16/22 at 11:36 pm
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