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re: *** 2023 Braves - World Series or Bust ***

Posted on 12/7/22 at 11:23 am to
Posted by TideSaint
Hill Country
Member since Sep 2008
83226 posts
Posted on 12/7/22 at 11:23 am to
quote:

Jansen to the Red Sox


Posted by Gideon Swashbuckler
Member since Sep 2019
8840 posts
Posted on 12/7/22 at 10:11 pm to
quote:

Definitely wanted to see the Braves sign Turner


Turner is 29 this year. You think he'll be the starting SS in Philly in 5 or 6 years?

That contract has the potential to destroy Philly. Maybe they get 6 good years out of him, perhaps 4 great years. So they paid $300 for 6 years. No thanks.

Philly got by ATL because ATL was emotionally gassed after running down the Mets and overtaking them. And plus, it's hard to repeat as Champs.

Philly wishes they had ATL's roster. They wish so hard they just paid $300m over 10 years for a SS they'll be paying to underachieve for half the contract. ATL doesn't need to sign Swanson if he wants $300m. Vaughn Grissom is more than capable to fill that spot. Philly won't make the playoffs this season. They don't have the pitching. They just got hot at the right time last season. Much like the Braves in 2021, but the Braves followed that up with a division crown, and currently have a much better roster with or without Swanson than Philly.

I'd much rather spend that money on a starter. Morton is probably going to flame out. I'm curious to see if Soroka can come back, but I'm not very optimistic, and they still need to sign Fried.

Swanson was clutch over the past 2 years for sure, but ATL got 96 RBIs from their 9 hole hitter last year. Some were from Swanson, but he is much more easily replaced than starting pitching.
Posted by DT55Forever1
Member since Jan 2018
3107 posts
Posted on 12/7/22 at 11:11 pm to
Thank you, Jack Sparrow :), but the point was that the Braves are not increasing their talent for the next few years. They are currently going down by losing Swanson and replacing him with unproven young players.
Turner would have increased our offensive output and he's only one year older than Swanson.
We likely are not in on Xander or Carlos. The shortstop options will be very limited. Maybe we make up for it with a big hitter in left field but it would likely cost us a player (Contreras) and prospects while we have to start an unproven or less talented player at SS.
We also should not have re-signed Morton. We could have used that money to help get in on another top line starter. Nearly all of those starters are now signed elsewhere.
We have a good roster and our financials are certainly better long term, but we were in a position to add a couple of top level talents without giving up players and prospects. Now we most likely will have to work through trades as we did today by giving up Malloy who showed very good numbers last season.

I'm sure Alex has tried to get some things done but it hasn't worked out.
The way its looking, we will go into the season with Grissom or Andrus at SS, Conforto or Bradley in left field and no upgrade to our starting pitchers. That puts us in a difficult situation in the East.

We would have needed to overpay for Turner but he would have been our best hitter day one (maybe the next few years) and with the rules changes for next year, a nightmare on the bases. Replacing Swanson with a consistent Turner and filling left field with Conforto or Reynolds, we would have been unstoppable offensively.
This post was edited on 12/7/22 at 11:25 pm
Posted by Gideon Swashbuckler
Member since Sep 2019
8840 posts
Posted on 12/8/22 at 12:33 pm to
quote:

unstoppable offensively.


I'm curious, how many additional wins do you think Turner gives the Phillies?
Not trolling. Genuinely curious.

Contreras should be off the table as far as players to be moved. He will be 25 in Dec. He's the catcher of the future and can DH until d'Arnaud is done. d'Arnaud will be 34 in Feb. I haven't read much about Duvall's recovery, but he's 34 and still has some tread on the tires. Idk if ATL will retain him but he's certainly capable of being the big bat in left field.
I agree about Morton. When he signed, I knew ATL was going to be bearish when it came to starting pitching in free agency. Pitching has been cultivated in the farm system for mightily for over 30 years now consistently. If Soroka can stay healthy and pitch well, if Muller advances anything the way Wright has, and they can salvage Ian Anderson (he didn't pitch that poorly considering what other staffs trot out to the bump everyday, I mean, he would be guaranteed a slot in say, the Phillies rotation) then I don't think spending big on pitching is necessary. Perhaps AA knows more than we do about the state of our guys coming back. Let's hope so anyway.

Trea Turner isn't an upgrade in the field from Swanson. He's a better base stealer by far and makes more contact, but he's been protected in great lineups too. I didn't pay that close attention, but he wasn't even the leadoff hitter in L.A. and wouldn't be for ATL either.
My point is that I'd take Swanson for $100m less if that's possible any day of the week. There's just not $100m worth of additional production that you can get from Turner that you aren't getting from Swanson.
If Swanson wants anything close to $300m the Braves will be absolutely right in letting him walk. Bogaerts signing with the Padres does change things. And his contract is fricking stupid too. He's 30(?) years old and signed an 11 year deal.
I'd rather play the team I have under control now that the spend wildly and mortgage the future to win now, especially when the Braves are absolutely built to win now. The won the division and 100+ games last season. No reason to commit $70-100m to a player that won't even be an everyday player during that time in the future to upgrade now.

Not in my opinion. Enjoyed reading your thoughts.
Posted by CodeName1
Member since Mar 2021
226 posts
Posted on 12/8/22 at 1:02 pm to
Trading away Henry-Malloy for a mediocre bullpen arm is a head scratcher. His trajectory could have had him as the #1 guy on the farm by the end of the season and had some real trade value.
Posted by DT55Forever1
Member since Jan 2018
3107 posts
Posted on 12/8/22 at 10:12 pm to
My fear with Swanson is the peak in his production. There's been an upward trajectory to his free agency year that I fear will begin to drop. Turner has been very consistent throughout the years and should do better with some of the rule changes. You never really know for sure how it will go year after year though. Swanson may stay productive and is certainly a better bargain. I just see adding Turner to the Phil's line up while at best we may keep the same line up, puts us in a bad situation. Turner certainly makes the Phils better in the short term. You probably see him batting in front of Harper so he will see plenty to hit. When on base, he'll give Harper better pitches to hit due to his base stealing. I honestly think it puts the Phils in the 100 win range depending on health.

For the Braves, so much will depend on starting pitching. Will Soroka return to form. Will Strider and Wright continue to improve. How bad will Morton be and can one of the younger guys step up. I was hoping we'd dump Morton and maybe go after Rodon and see if he stays hot. I think the bullpen will be fine. Wouldn't have hurt my feelings to give Robertson a one year deal like the Mets just did. Former Bama guy and solid when healthy.

Do not want to see Contreras go. Rather move Travis. Hopefully moving Malloy means Alex has a play for an outfielder this off season. We do not need Rosario/Ozuna out there.

Financially for the long term, the Braves are in the best position in the East. Just worry we might be behind the 8 ball in the division for the next 2 years or so but we'll see how it plays out. So hard to know for sure.

I like the conversation. Thanks.
Posted by PowHound
The Peoples Moderator
Member since Jul 2014
7240 posts
Posted on 12/8/22 at 11:49 pm to
Dansby Swanson Next Team Odds

Cubs -150
Twins +600
Dodgers +700
Yankees +900
Cardinals +1000
Giants +1000
Mariners +1000
Red Sox +1000
Orioles +1200


Posted by Gideon Swashbuckler
Member since Sep 2019
8840 posts
Posted on 12/9/22 at 1:53 pm to
For the Phillies to be in the 100 win range, either the Mets or ATL would have to take a huge step back. I'm not sure the Mets are going to see that much of a drop off. They traded deGrom for Verlander essentially and still have a formidable line up. The Braves are set up to win now in my opinion based on what I've seen from the pitching and provided they get some of the young guys support the way they supported Wright. No reason to think ATL drops off even if they don't sign Swanson. I'd just assume he go then cripple the franchise with a contract like Turner's or Bogaerts'.
I think Grissom is more than capable of excelling at the position, at the very least as a defender.
Swanson has really only had 2 good seasons. The last 2. Turner has been more productive and consistent. Agreed, but dude disappeared in the playoffs, and there was talk that he'd get left off the playoff roster.

I think if they gave Grossom 400+ at bats he'd have comparable numbers. He just appeared further along in his development than Swanson at his age. Swanson was still in college at 21 if I'm not mistaken. Swanson has matured into a productive player who has been clutch at times, but I see Grissom like I see Michael Turner. Dude is ready. He only got 156 plate appearances and batted .291 with 11 walks ans 34 strikeouts. As long as he gets the K numbers down, he could be a perennial .300 hitter. Something Swanson will never be. Grissom has power, I'm interested to see if he can hit for power and not sacrifice his avg.

Funny Swanson got 146 plate appearances and had 34 Ks and 13 walks his first year. Very similar numbers. But, Grissom is much younger and much cheaper at the moment. I'd say he's a better option unless you can get Swanson on a hometown discount contract.
Posted by McGregor
Member since Feb 2011
6734 posts
Posted on 12/9/22 at 2:02 pm to
Grissom's issue is on D. He'd make a better 2B but that's taken.
Posted by PowHound
The Peoples Moderator
Member since Jul 2014
7240 posts
Posted on 12/9/22 at 10:52 pm to
Grissom has hit at every level, and has good pitch recognition for his age.

The scouts say he cant defend SS at mlb level, but i seriously doubt he defends it 140 million dollars worth more poorly than swanson.
Posted by Bamafan4evr12
Member since Jul 2014
2286 posts
Posted on 12/9/22 at 10:56 pm to
quote:

Grissom's issue is on D.


In Ron Washington I trust
Posted by Hback
Member since Aug 2017
12896 posts
Posted on 12/12/22 at 2:32 pm to
Braves acquired Sean Murphy from the Athletics. Excellent pickup. And he won't be eligible for free agency until after the 2025 season

Passan

"It’s actually a three-team trade, per Passan, with William Contreras going to the Brewers and Manny Pina to the A’s. Right-handed pitching prospect Freddy Tarnok will be going from Atlanta to Oakland, per Robert Murray of FanSided."
This post was edited on 12/12/22 at 2:59 pm
Posted by PowHound
The Peoples Moderator
Member since Jul 2014
7240 posts
Posted on 12/12/22 at 4:06 pm to
Im hearing Contreras, Muller, and Manny Pina have been moved to acquire Murphy.

Woah,... I thought Muller could be No. 3 possibly 2 guy with his stuff if he figures it out.

Meanwhile Murphy is probably the closest guy to being on the JT Realmuto path in MLB right now. He could very well be the best defensive/offensive catcher in baseball in another season or two.

If Contreras doesn't continue to get better defensively however then I would think this could be a steal of a deal for the Braves. Murphy is a no doubt top five or better catcher in baseball for years to come.

Posted by PowHound
The Peoples Moderator
Member since Jul 2014
7240 posts
Posted on 12/12/22 at 4:19 pm to
Holy cow, The Braves have literally bet the farm on Murphy:

A’s get:

C Manny Piña from Braves
LHP Kyle Muller from Braves (club's No. 1-ranked prospect)
RHP Freddy Tarnok from Braves (club's No. 6-ranked prospect)
RHP Royber Salinas from Braves (club's No. 18-ranked prospect)

Brewers get:

C William Contreras from Braves

RHP Justin Yeager from Braves

Braves get:
C Sean Murphy from A’s

I mean, I'm really high on Murphy but,... WOW
Posted by Carlton
Forced LANKing made the GOAT Retire
Member since Feb 2016
14721 posts
Posted on 12/12/22 at 4:39 pm to
This is great AA but can we get some pitching pretty please? A high leverage reliever and a starting rotation guy. Any chance on that?
Posted by DT55Forever1
Member since Jan 2018
3107 posts
Posted on 12/12/22 at 5:03 pm to
What the frick? Murphy is a career .236 hitter with 16 HR and 66 RBIs in his best season. We already had a catcher that can hit and he just sent him away.

Sent William and 4 pitchers away for something you already had with more potential. What a fricking idiotic trade.

We need pitchers, a left fielder and short stop dammit. We continue to drop further behind the Mets and Phillies.

shite!!!
This post was edited on 12/12/22 at 5:04 pm
Posted by RollTide33
Member since Sep 2019
4300 posts
Posted on 12/12/22 at 5:20 pm to
quote:

Sent William and 4 pitchers away for something you already had with more potential. What a fricking idiotic trade.


Murphy is way better than Contreras defensively. He'll immediately make the pitching staff better. He's the second best option to getting Realmuto but for only 4 million a year.

As for his offense his home/road splits show he's pretty even with Contreras when he's not hitting in one of the worst stadiums for right handed hitters in the league.
Posted by DT55Forever1
Member since Jan 2018
3107 posts
Posted on 12/12/22 at 5:40 pm to
We didn't need a catcher and he hit .250 in his best season. Give Contreras a full season and he'd most likely hit better than Murphy.
We gave 6 players for a guy that is somewhat comparable to what we already had. If he's catching, who's the DH, Travis? Ozuna? Rosario? That's not a good option.
We need a shortstop, outfielder and pitchers. We just gave away our top bargaining trade option for a position we didn't need. There's no way to explain this mistake away.

He also has to adjust a a different league and he can't run. He might be a little better than Contreras defensively but not enough to do this.

Contreras hit .278 with 20 home runs and didn't play full time.
This post was edited on 12/12/22 at 5:54 pm
Posted by DT55Forever1
Member since Jan 2018
3107 posts
Posted on 12/12/22 at 6:03 pm to
Donwvotes don't explain how you're right.

By losing Swanson and Contreras, we've lost 45 home runs, 141 RBIs, and 20 stolen bases. And replaced it with...

And again, we don't have a left fielder, a shortstop or now a DH.
This post was edited on 12/12/22 at 6:08 pm
Posted by Gideon Swashbuckler
Member since Sep 2019
8840 posts
Posted on 12/12/22 at 7:03 pm to
Braves got swindled.

Wow. This is bad. It isn't Adam Wainwright for J.D. Drew bad, but holy shite is it bad.
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