ESPN Projects The College Football Playoff Top 12 After Week 1

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1. LSU Tigers (1-0)

Garrett Nussmeier and LSU made a statement on the road. Imagn Images
Why they could be here: Throw out the preseason rankings and everything you thought you knew about the best teams in college football. Nobody made a bigger Week 1 statement, on the road against a team capable of winning the ACC and competing for a spot in the playoff. The committee starts from scratch, and LSU showed all of the components it looks for -- from a Heisman hopeful in quarterback Garrett Nussmeier to a defense that proved it can play at an elite level.

Why they could be lower: While the committee insists it starts from scratch, some might give the reigning national champion Ohio State the benefit of the doubt -- whether it's intentional or not. The Buckeyes played a complete game under first-year starting quarterback Julian Sayin. It was also a clean game, with only two penalties and no turnovers, plus a defensive effort that was the difference in the game.

Need to know: If LSU and Clemson don't lock up playoff spots as conference champions, Saturday's LSU win could be critical for seeding in the at-large spots. The higher seed gets home-field advantage, and the top four seeds earn first-round byes. Even if LSU doesn't win the SEC -- and Clemson wins the ACC -- there could be a scenario in which LSU is still ranked ahead because of Week 1.

Toughest remaining game: Sept. 27 at Ole Miss. Alabama's performance in its loss to Florida State makes the trip to Tuscaloosa seem less daunting. Though that game is a coin toss, ESPN's FPI gives Ole Miss a 70.1% chance to beat LSU.

First-round byes

No. 1 LSU (SEC champ)
No. 2 Ohio State (Big Ten champ)
No. 3 Miami (ACC champ)
No. 4 Penn State

First-round games

On campus, Dec. 19 and 20

No. 12 USF (American champ) at No. 5 Florida State
No. 11 Arizona State (Big 12 champ) at No. 6 Georgia
No. 10 Texas at No. 7 Oregon
No. 9 Notre Dame at No. 8 Tennessee

Quarterfinal games

At the Goodyear Cotton Bowl, Capital One Orange Bowl, Rose Bowl Presented by Prudential and Allstate Sugar Bowl on Dec. 31 and Jan. 1.

No. 12 USF/No. 5 Florida State winner vs. No. 4 Penn State
No. 11 Arizona State/No. 6 Georgia winner vs. No. 3 Miami
No. 10 Texas/No. 7 Oregon winner vs. No. 2 Ohio State
No. 9 Notre Dame/No. 8 Tennessee winners vs. No. 1 LSU

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