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Posted on 3/17/20 at 4:30 pm to meansonny
quote:
It says that the mortality rate is determined by how we respond to it. But that is not how mortality rates work.
That is how mortality rates work. If every seriously sick patient has appropriate care the mortality rate is estimated to be between 0.5% and 0.9%. If the healthcare system is overwhelmed the mortality rate is estimated to be between 3% and 5%.
Degree of exposure also affects how deadly the disease is. In Wuhan the first doctors who were exposed started dying and they were in their 30s and 40s.
Asymptomatic People who are carrying the virus now might be at risk because of the long incubation period.
Posted on 3/17/20 at 4:37 pm to Whiznot
quote:
If every seriously sick patient has appropriate care the mortality rate is estimated to be between 0.5% and 0.9%.
Those numbers are guesses. This is a novel virus. Remember?
With proper care, it can just as easily be .1 to .2%.
quote:
Degree of exposure also affects how deadly the disease is
That is no different than the flu which is at .1%.
And the flu doesnt care how old someone is. Infant, child, adolescent, young adult, mature. The mortality is strong across all ages (.1%)
This post was edited on 3/17/20 at 4:38 pm
Posted on 3/17/20 at 5:09 pm to meansonny
quote:
With proper care, it can just as easily be .1 to .2%.
That’s the issue. Proper care is finite. Once the critical cases go beyond capacity, the death rate accelerates. See italy.
Posted on 3/17/20 at 5:29 pm to MacDawg
quote:
hospitalization rate.
Obviously very important
quote:
Large numbers of hospitalizations will increase the death rate and is happening in Italy
Here we go again.Ive posted multiple times about the difference in demographics and their historical record and mortality rates regarding sick, elderly citizens but since you guys continually ignore them or just don't want to believe them,I have a guick question:
The 1st documented case in the US was Jan.19th and the 1st documented case in Italy was Jan 29th.Our case count as of today was 6,195 and 105 deaths and their case count:31,506 and 2;506 deaths and keep in mind we have 5 times the population of Italy (Somehow even this number means nothing to the sky screamers)
So we had the first reported case 10 days earlier than Italy (granted, theirs was probably sooner) So for argument sake,let's say both started at the the same date.
Why in the world do we have such a astronomical difference in cases and deaths in a country that has 1/5 our population
and a virus that started at approximately the same time in this country?
Posted on 3/17/20 at 6:18 pm to meansonny
The CDC is predicting the low range of our mortality rate as 1.5% That rate is fifteen times higher than you say the rate might be.
Check out one fatality chart
Notice that the nation that tested most aggressively, South Korea, was able to experience a stable death rate of 0.6%. That rate is still catastrophic but the CDC thinks we won't do nearly as well.
Check out one fatality chart
Notice that the nation that tested most aggressively, South Korea, was able to experience a stable death rate of 0.6%. That rate is still catastrophic but the CDC thinks we won't do nearly as well.
Posted on 3/17/20 at 6:37 pm to Whiznot
666th post
Corona alphanumeric sum is 66 by the way
Corona alphanumeric sum is 66 by the way
Posted on 3/17/20 at 6:49 pm to Whiznot
quote:
Whiznot
Please answer my question from my previous post.
Posted on 3/17/20 at 7:27 pm to MacDawg
AND ALL THESE DUMB frickING ATLANTA PEOPLE ARE NOT STAYING HOME. So far I am forced to work or Else. I take my lunch with me and I have stayed in my truck all day long except to get gas one time with copious use of hand sanitizer and also to piss on the ground behind my truck. People are eating lunch out in restaurant. They are going to nail salons. They are shopping at Best Buy and at furniture stores. This is all just on Barrett parkway from 75 to Cobb pkwy. That Whole Foods on the corner there was packed all day long. People are not adhering to the 15 days of social distancing
Posted on 3/17/20 at 7:50 pm to Griffindawg
That’s why you need govt mandates. People are worthless
Posted on 3/17/20 at 7:51 pm to Whiznot
quote:
The CDC is predicting the low range of our mortality rate as 1.5% That rate is fifteen times higher than you say the rate might be.
Everytime I see some official prediction of a mortality rate, it seems lower and lower. It never seems the same.
Imagine that. Scientists doing their best and still not doing better than the monkey throwing darts.
Posted on 3/17/20 at 7:57 pm to Griffindawg
quote:
AND ALL THESE DUMB frickING ATLANTA PEOPLE ARE NOT STAYING HOME. So far I am forced to work or Else. I take my lunch with me and I have stayed in my truck all day long except to get gas one time with copious use of hand sanitizer and also to piss on the ground behind my truck. People are eating lunch out in restaurant. They are going to nail salons. They are shopping at Best Buy and at furniture stores. This is all just on Barrett parkway from 75 to Cobb pkwy. That Whole Foods on the corner there was packed all day long. People are not adhering to the 15 days of social distancing
You should mind your own business.
Posted on 3/17/20 at 7:58 pm to RD Dawg
RD, the numbers you're showing for our country don't have much meaning because of the unavailability of tests. We don't know where we are on the curve. I don't base any conclusions about infections or deaths on our numbers.
If the scientists are right we will see infections and deaths explode over the next two weeks. We still might not get accurate numbers in the near term but the crisis will be apparent.
Doctors are still screaming for tests and supplies.
What frightens the medical community is plain to see in the slope of infections over time. The start is slow then boom.
If the scientists are right we will see infections and deaths explode over the next two weeks. We still might not get accurate numbers in the near term but the crisis will be apparent.
Doctors are still screaming for tests and supplies.
What frightens the medical community is plain to see in the slope of infections over time. The start is slow then boom.
This post was edited on 3/17/20 at 8:10 pm
Posted on 3/17/20 at 8:00 pm to djsdawg
quote:
djsdawg
quote:
That’s why you need govt mandates. People are worthless
This.
Right.
Here.
Is.
The.
Difference.
Between.
Left.
And.
Right.
Posted on 3/17/20 at 8:06 pm to Whiznot
quote:
Notice that the nation that tested most aggressively, South Korea, was able to experience a stable death rate of 0.6%
What specifically does that tell you about the usefulness of mortality rates?
It tells me that they are worthless. The more you test, the more the result changes. It tells you that the media focuses on numbers that are pointless and not sound for decision making.
Posted on 3/17/20 at 8:06 pm to Whiznot
quote:
RD, the numbers you're showing for our country don't have much meaning because of the unavailability of tests
They kind of do even if testing is inadequate.
Deaths aren't important?
BTW, shouldn't hospitals in Seattle be overrun with sick people by now? We're coming up on 2 months in this country and even less in Italy.
Posted on 3/17/20 at 8:32 pm to Whiznot
quote:
Doctors are still screaming for tests and supplies
For tests? Yes but for what "supplies?"
We have more ICU space per capita than any country in the world. LINK
I believe we have approximately 200,000 ventilators but I have no idea of per capita numbers for this country.I would assume it's pretty high.
quote:
deaths explode over the next two weeks
Deaths haven't been exploding in Italy? We're coming up on 2 months for both countries...WTF? Shouldn't we have an indication?
Posted on 3/17/20 at 8:37 pm to meansonny
quote:
The more you test, the more the result changes.
Actually, mass testing allows a nation to keep the mortality rate low because they learn where the hot spots are and are better able to isolate them. Not having tests is like trying to put out a wildfire without knowing where it is.
Posted on 3/17/20 at 8:45 pm to meansonny
quote:
The more you test, the more the result changes.
Might be more accurate to say: the more you test, the closer you get to the actual infection fatality rate.
Some of the numbers being thrown about are promoting panic or at least media sensationalism because the number of people who are infected and only experience mild symptoms and never ultimately get diagnosed means that the true infection fatality rate is far lower than the crude rate that's based only on deaths/diagnosed cases.
Not to minimize that COVID 19 is likely still going to have a much higher infection fatality rate than seasonal flu, it is also vastly more dangerous to the very elderly and the medically ill than to younger, healthier people.
Some of the posts in this thread raise interesting ethical questions. Which is preferable: a) To let the epidemic spike and end more quickly (but result in many more deaths to the people most at risk) OR b) to flatten the curve by general quarantines and closures, resulting in a lower number of deaths but also destroying many lives economically and possibly throwing the country into a recession?
Public health and medicine are always going to go with the "b". Government does like to implement controls on people, "for the good of the many."
But is "b" the inherently correct choice? Who's to say.
Posted on 3/17/20 at 8:56 pm to Whiznot
quote:
keep the mortality rate low because they learn where the hot spots are and are better able to isolate them.
It helps but there seems to be a another factor in SK mortality rates. LINK
quote:
The impact of this disparity is quickly shown in the analysis of coronavirus deaths in each county. In Italy, 90% of the more than 1,000 deaths occur in those 70 or older.
By contrast, the outbreak in South Korea has occurred among much younger people. There, only 20% of cases have been diagnosed in those 60 years old and up. The largest affected group is those in their 20s, who account for almost 30% of all cases.
Then there is gender. The gender split in COVID-19 cases worldwide is about 50-50, but there are gender differences in survival. According to data from the original outbreak in China, the overall death rate is 4.7% in men versus 2.8% in women -- a whopping difference.
This post was edited on 3/17/20 at 8:57 pm
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