re: OT: Corona Panic 2020

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42,000 in a 12 month period.

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You're still thinking in terms of linear growth. Deaths are going to grow at an accelerated rate.

If I'm right, we'll see that the death count will increase by 3,500 in just a few days. It will likely double in about a week.

This nightmare storm hasn't even started in Western countries. And it's beginning to spread in India, Brazil, and Africa.

If this thing spreads across the world and cannot be contained, and just 1% of the world population is wiped out, that's 77 million people.

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The number of cases is about to skyrocket meaning our hospitals are about to get swamped even with the work we've been doing to contain this.

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Give me a date and give me a number.

How many hospitalizations (not infections) and by what date where our hospitals in major cities are at capacity

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Globally

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There were 645 deaths yesterday globally. That was a real stretch on your part projecting a week out. Especially since Italy has a do not resuscitate on a percentage of their sick.

Edit to add... there were 1370 flu deaths per day globally in 2018.

Well once we can actually start testing a large number of people right now we don't have a lot of official tests

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It's predictable

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The US isnt italy. We slowed down the infiltration by travel banning China. Italy didnt. Guess where most of the Georgia infections have come from? Italy.

Give me your predictions for the US

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The number of cases is about to skyrocket

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Well once we can actually start testing a large number of people right now we don't have a lot of official tests

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So what you are saying...is the mortality rate is about to plunge, which is currently at 2% in the US with 85 deaths in 4661 cases (believe 31 are from the home in Washington). If the cases are going to skyrocket because we "don't have a lot of official tests," yet haven't had a lot of people dying from "Corona-like circumstances," then the mortality rate is grossly over hyped by the media and government. You have to pick which media hyped shite you are going to regurgitate...is it we don't have enough tests, or is it that the mortality rate would kill 8-10M Americans;

ETA: Also, CDC is experiencing a 4% positive rate on tests today and private companies are getting roughly a 2% positive rate. Much like South Korea got. So, you have to ask yourself that the same people doing the test, spreading fear...is that "faulty-data" too?

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On 2-27-2020 my guess of US coronavirus deaths this year was 1,000,000 people. Now I think that more than that will die.

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Quoted so you can't edit later.

Wisenot thinks more than 1 in 350 people in the US are going to die from the Corona virus in 2020.

Wow.

I know math too, Grey.

I am going to assume you know math too.

You know that exponential growth in a pandemic has a ceiling, if it was truly exponential, everyone on the planet would have already been dead.

Here's what the "exponential" curve will really look like.


And at the end of the year, numbers won't be far off from the linear projections.

Do you disagree, or do you concur?

You do realize with a virus that infects two people for each carrier, there are only 2 ways to reach the inflection point where the curve levels out and goes down. The infection rate is fact. Look it up. It has an R0 rating of over 2.

LINK

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For each person that has the flu, on average, they infect 1.3 other people. That’s called the “R0” for flu. If R0 is less than 1.0, then an infection stops spreading and dies out. If it’s over 1.0, it spreads. R0 currently is 2-3 for covid-19 outside China. The difference may sound small, but after 20 “generations” of infected people passing on their infection, an R0 of 1.3 would result in 146 infections, but an R0 of 2.5 would result in 36 million infections! (This is, of course, very hand-wavy and ignores many real-world impacts, but it’s a reasonable illustration of the relative difference between covid-19 and flu, all other things being equal).

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You have to get the number of new infections down. That only happens if 1) People that are infected no longer are infecting new people, hence social distancing. Or 2) everyone is already infected so you can't infect more people.

So yeah, the curve will eventually look like that, but how do you want to get there?