re: OT: Corona Panic 2020

Dougherty leaders encouraged by positive COVID-19 trends


by Alan Mauldin

ALBANY — After weeks of seeing the number of COVID-19 cases and deaths climbing, Phoebe Putney Memorial Hospital may be seeing a leveling off in terms of critically ill patients.

“Over the last week, if you look at the number of people coming in with symptoms and the number we have transferred out, (they) have been consistent over the last week,” Dr. Steven Kitchen, Phoebe’s chief medical officer, said during a Friday news conference. “That number does not seem to be increasing at this point and does appear to be flattening at this point.”

The trend indicates that measures put in place to contain the spread of the coronavirus are working, but it is important to maintain those practices that have led to that point, Kitchen said.

As of Saturday, the Georgia Department of Public Health reported the death of 69 Dougherty County residents who tested positive for the coronavirus.

Dougherty County’s deaths remain the most in the state, ahead of the 50 reported in Fulton County and 33 in Cobb County.

The disease also has claimed the lives of 15 Lee County residents and 13 residents of Mitchell County.

Other southwest Georgia counties have been hard hit, with the state reporting a total of 10 deaths in Terrell County, nine in Sumter County, six in Early County and five each in Colquitt and Randolph counties.

Despite the possibility that the number of cases peaked on April 1, now “is not the time for complacency,” Kitchen said.

“I think we do have the appearance of some favorable trends,” he said. “This in no way indicates the threat is beginning to diminish at this point.”

The mortality rate for the virus among those who have tested positive at Phoebe facilities in Albany, Americus and Sylvester is 3.4 percent.

Kitchen also noted that a number of patients who had been critically ill and on ventilators have made partial recoveries.

“There are a total of 16 patients at Phoebe Main who have improved and been able to be transferred from the intensive care unit to one of our general COVID units,” he said. “Still, a lot of work needs to be done, but again, a favorable trend.”

During Easter weekend, Albany Mayor Bo Dorough encouraged residents to draw from the resiliency that the community has shown during previous crises.

“This community has been devastated many times — by floods, by tornadoes, by a hurricane, and now this,” he said. “This is a Good Friday line none of us has known. We are being told to remain at home instead of going to houses of worship. We can still hear the Easter message, a story that emboldens us at this time of year.”

As of Friday, the total number of individuals at Phoebe who have tested positive was 1,739, with 2,814 negative test results. An additional 787 patients had recovered, either after isolation at home or treatment at the hospital, Kitchen said.

The number does not include those tested by public health officials or at private medical practices.

There had been 59 deaths at Phoebe Putney in Albany and eight at Phoebe Sumter Medical Center.

Under Gov. Brian Kemp’s shelter-in-place order, residents will be required to follow guidelines meant to reduce transmission of the coronavirus, such as social distancing, through at least the end of the month, Dougherty County Commission Chairman Chris Cohilas said. Businesses and individuals have made sacrifices.

The many families grieving, for instance, have not been able to grieve in the traditional manner because of restrictions on funerals that have limited those services to 10 people or less gathered at a loved one’s graveside, he said. A number of first responders, including emergency medical personnel, as well as medical personnel have been infected in the course of transporting and treating patients.

“In all of Dougherty County and the Albany region, while we continue to lose lives, we are seeing figures that show we are flattening the curve,” Cohilas said. “While the death toll continues to rise, I am pleased to say we are continuing to see a pattern for flattening the curve. I’m not going to say we’re there yet.

“It takes a collective (effort) of a bunch of communities, of all the communities, to flatten the curve of this viciously deadly virus.”

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Hopefully we will get this thing turned around soon,

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Our economy is going to die. We need to get back to work.

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Our economy is going to die. We need to get back to work.

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We do need to go back to work, no doubt. However it is for more than just the economy. we get interaction with bosses and co-workers that are a large part of our social life. Even the frustrations we feel with our bosses and co-workers are an important thing.

The economy will be okay....as a whole as long as this does not drag on for 5-6 months. Commerce is being done in a different way. More people are shopping online now. I'm sure buying has slowed a bit, but it is probably still fairly strong. What we have to be worried about is what happens if manufacturing is unable to ramp back up. Equipment sitting idle and good not being produced can cause shortages that will need to be addressed. it will be interesting to see how it affects inflation.

Had to repost with update:

Monday 3/30: estimate of US COVID-19 deaths, even with mitigation measures: 200,000
Friday 4/3: updated projection of US deaths: 111,000
Monday 4/6: downgraded to 93,521
Tuesday 4/7: downgraded to 81,766
Wednesday 4/8: downgraded to 60,000
Sunday 4/12: downgraded to 50,000

Comparison to a REAL pandemic: Spanish Flu 1917-1919 (675,000 US deaths out of a US population of only 100 million; equivalent to 2.2 million deaths in today's US population).

Other noteworthy comparisons:

Annual US deaths -- from 2018 data:

Heart disease: 647,457
Cancer: 599,108
Influenza: 80,000 (estimated)
Suicide: 47,173
Motor vehicle accident: 37,173

Question: So if ultimately about 50,000 Americans die from COVID-19 -- a large proportion being older and less healthy to begin with -- was the economic and social damage worth it?

Or would be have been better off to have started the response immediately with a program of intensive testing and contact tracing, the preferred method of controlling disease???

My main concern with our economy going forward is the inevitable backlash with China. China has be been a very bad actor in this dismal play that is the Coronavirus Pandemic and it has become all too obvious that Western nations have become way too dependent on China as a manufacturing center. This short article pretty much sums it up: LINK

He writes from a Canadian perspective but it applies equally well to the U.S.:

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First, there is the clear health risk. With China unwilling to share the truth on viruses spreading in their nation, allowing endless open travel between our nation and China is far too dangerous.

Second, there is the economic risk. Being dependent on China economically means we are dependent on a dishonest, hostile state for many things we need here at home – things we could be producing within our own country.

There is a thread with over a thousand pages here OT-Lounge. I've read a few pages to see what others are saying.

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Question: So if ultimately about 50,000 Americans die from COVID-19 -- a large proportion being older and less healthy to begin with -- was the economic and social damage worth it?

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Yes and no. I mean you are looking at it from the standpoint that had we not shut things down the death rate would have remained the same. There is no way of tellign how many lives may (Or may not) have been saved because of the shutdown.

Fir instance, if things had not been shut down what if Corona had spread and infected a million more people and killed 100,000 more people....you might answer a shutdown would have been worth it, right?

There will be all kinds of speculation about how many lives were saved by the shutdown, but there really is not way of telling.

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Or would be have been better off to have started the response immediately with a program of intensive testing and contact tracing, the preferred method of controlling disease???

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Again....maybe? In England they have gotten mixed results with testing and have found much of their testing to be unreliable. So, how good would testing be if you can't depend upon the results?

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things we could be producing within our own country.
We could but can you imagine how much things would cost if everything was made in the US?

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Valid, though that article was written from a Canadian perspective which I mentioned in my post. Though I'm sure wages are significantly higher in Canada compared to China. :)
Still there are other more friendly alternatives. Another article I read mentioned a shift to Mexico, India and even Vietnam as less threatening manufacturing alternatives with cheaper labor. The obvious additional benefit in moving production to Mexico is job creation in Mexico might stem some of the tide of illegal immigration into the U.S.

Obviously. Did you see what I quoted or do you just like pointing out obvious shite?

I agree with all of this.