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ESPN’s FPI isn’t favoring LSU as much as I expected
Posted on 11/25/19 at 7:35 am
Posted on 11/25/19 at 7:35 am
Posted on 11/25/19 at 7:40 am to FlexDawg
I was a little surprised by that as well. If you look at the Auburn and Alabama games, who I believe we’re pretty much on par with, they were decided by 3 and 5 points.
Posted on 11/25/19 at 7:47 am to FlexDawg
In general an elite defense would be considered to have a leg up on an elite offense, IMO. We've seen it many times from 2000-present when someone (generally oklahoma) would run roughshod over their conference then meet a great defense in the postseason and be completely neutralized. LSU has played some good to really good defense this year but nothing like ours. They also won't have the advantage of home field like they did wiht AU and UF.
I don't necessarily think we'll win, mainly becuase of our pitiful offense, but this isn't going ot be a blowout with LSu scoring at will either. Tbh bama's offense last year scared me more and we held them in check until they got to bring in a totally fresh heisman candidate off the bench.
I don't necessarily think we'll win, mainly becuase of our pitiful offense, but this isn't going ot be a blowout with LSu scoring at will either. Tbh bama's offense last year scared me more and we held them in check until they got to bring in a totally fresh heisman candidate off the bench.
Posted on 11/25/19 at 8:05 am to WG_Dawg
The Ole Heisman off the bench trick. hahahah i hate it when that happens 
Posted on 11/25/19 at 8:06 am to FlexDawg
I’m not as pessimistic about the game as I probably should be. As bad as we played on offense the last few games, we won’t be facing a great defense like Auburn and it won’t be raining in the dome (assuming they fixed the leaks). I’ve got a feeling things click a little better when we need it most.
Posted on 11/25/19 at 8:06 am to WG_Dawg
Our best shot is if our offense has an uncharacteristically stellar game. I'm not worried about the defense. As others have said, LSU hasn't encountered anything like this, yet.
The good news is that the odds of our O waking up are better, since they're well overdue. I hope we keep Cager out of COFH, if he's still on the mend. We'll need him as close to 100% as he can get for the SECCG.
The good news is that the odds of our O waking up are better, since they're well overdue. I hope we keep Cager out of COFH, if he's still on the mend. We'll need him as close to 100% as he can get for the SECCG.
Posted on 11/25/19 at 8:20 am to VoxDawg
Not to mention the game won't be weather affected in the Benz.
Posted on 11/25/19 at 8:21 am to VoxDawg
quote:
Our best shot is if our offense has an uncharacteristically stellar game. I'm not worried about the defense. As others have said, LSU hasn't encountered anything like this, yet. The good news is that the odds of our O waking up are better, since they're well overdue. I hope we keep Cager out of COFH, if he's still on the mend. We'll need him as close to 100% as he can get for the SECCG.
Fromm does well under pressure. When our offense has been on the ropes in the past, Fromm starts lighting things up in the 2 minute.
I think once he gets to LSU in the SECCG he's going to look totally different than in the past few weeks.
Posted on 11/25/19 at 8:27 am to VoxDawg
quote:
Our best shot is if our offense has an uncharacteristically stellar game
which, weirdly, could definitely happen.
the talent is there, we are bound to break out. big play from pickens, big plays from swift, cager TD, fromm is on target, etc...
im probably delusional, but it's just not that crazy for it all to come together against a defense that has kinda been letting that happen for other teams.
Posted on 11/25/19 at 8:33 am to WG_Dawg
It's definitely hard to believe that we're gonna keep up with LSU just based on the product on the field, but I've been wondering if the team has had its mind on this game for a while. Getting back to Atlanta was always the first step, and with one loss they've just seemed to be playing tighter down the stretch.
This program was one overtime stop away from a national title and a series away from potentially going to another. They're gonna hear all week leading up to the game that we have no chance, our offense sucks, who takes UGA's 4th spot after championship week, etc. and we just happen to be playing the #1 team, who beat us last year, with the frontrunner for the Heisman.
There are so many motivational factors, it almost feels scripted.
This program was one overtime stop away from a national title and a series away from potentially going to another. They're gonna hear all week leading up to the game that we have no chance, our offense sucks, who takes UGA's 4th spot after championship week, etc. and we just happen to be playing the #1 team, who beat us last year, with the frontrunner for the Heisman.
There are so many motivational factors, it almost feels scripted.
Posted on 11/25/19 at 8:37 am to dawgdayafternoon
nobody seems to point out that LSU's defense (as of late anyway) has been almost as bad as our offense. If we can get some 3rd down conversions and control the run game like we're supposed to we've definitely got a chance by keeping their offense off the field.
Heck I remember the 2011 SECCG where we were grossly outmatched and didn't have a prayer. We went into halftime with a lead and held them without a 1st down through 2 quarters. Granted the dispartiy caught up to us in the 2nd half and we got blown out but in a championship game setting like this you never know what can happen.
Heck I remember the 2011 SECCG where we were grossly outmatched and didn't have a prayer. We went into halftime with a lead and held them without a 1st down through 2 quarters. Granted the dispartiy caught up to us in the 2nd half and we got blown out but in a championship game setting like this you never know what can happen.
Posted on 11/25/19 at 8:38 am to dawgdayafternoon
quote:
who takes UGA's 4th spot after championship week, etc
It's not out of the realm of possibility that that happens with tomorrow's CFP ranking. Granted, I don't think it's likely, but it's not impossible.
Personally, I'd like to see that bump down to 5 hit (if it's going to at all) after we stomp a mudhole in the Jackets, and then let the team bathe in the perceived disrespect, leading up to the SECCG.
Posted on 11/25/19 at 8:44 am to VoxDawg
it may be nice for motivation but people have to realize the rankings are truly irrelevant until next sunday.
LSU v UGA
Baylor v OU
OSU v Minnesota
Oregon v Utah
Assuming clemson goes undefeated those 4 games are going to completely determine the other 3 spots. Who is ranked where prior to those games doesn't mean anything.
LSU v UGA
Baylor v OU
OSU v Minnesota
Oregon v Utah
Assuming clemson goes undefeated those 4 games are going to completely determine the other 3 spots. Who is ranked where prior to those games doesn't mean anything.
Posted on 11/25/19 at 8:52 am to FlexDawg
I have this feeling our offense finally starts clicking vs Tech and builds steam going into the SECCG. We certainly have the athletes. I believe that Coley tried to implement his philosophy early and Kirby stepped in after USCjr and outlined what we’d be doing. The transition has taken time but it seems we’re focusing on perimeter football more now. Kirby has even alluded to that in pressers. We can be a dangerous football team when all cylinders are clicking.
Posted on 11/25/19 at 8:59 am to WG_Dawg
This is what it's going to take for us to win. I don't think LSU's defense is as bad as the stats suggest. A lot of those rushing yards were against Ole Miss' exceptional mobile QB which we don't have.
LSU has young but excellent 5 star talent in their defensive backfield. They easily match up well against our young receivers. We will need a solid running game and some key first down passes to keep them off the field.
LSU has young but excellent 5 star talent in their defensive backfield. They easily match up well against our young receivers. We will need a solid running game and some key first down passes to keep them off the field.
Posted on 11/25/19 at 9:13 am to GurleyGirl
My concern is what we saw from Auburn and aTm in the passing game. While our coverages may/may not have changed depending on game situations, and we lost Stokes in the 2H of aTm, the pass defense looked susceptible to quick, short routes.
This is LSU's bread and butter. If LSU's routes are quick enough that we can't get pressure on Burrow, it's going to be a long day. Additionally, we need to spy Burrow. He killed us last year, as well as Auburn this year, with his feet when protection breaks down.
This is LSU's bread and butter. If LSU's routes are quick enough that we can't get pressure on Burrow, it's going to be a long day. Additionally, we need to spy Burrow. He killed us last year, as well as Auburn this year, with his feet when protection breaks down.
Posted on 11/25/19 at 9:19 am to mmmmmbeeer
quote:
My concern is what we saw from Auburn and aTm in the passing game.
we didn't have cager for either of those games (well, for like 95% of them). If he is healthy our offense changes dramatically. WE can also control the run unlike any team LSU has seen outside of bama, which didn't even try to run until the 2nd half and when they did it was successful.
My hpoe is that we don't run a lick of zone the entire game. It blows my mind why against AU and then a week later against aTm we will completley shut a team down in man then switch to zone and watch them throw up and down the field on us. Burrow would eat a zone alive. It's not like we don't have the personnel either; Stokes/Daniel/Campbell/Stevenson are all perfectly capable of handlign the job.
Posted on 11/25/19 at 9:22 am to WG_Dawg
quote:
a week later against aTm we will completley shut a team down in man then switch to zone and watch them throw up and down the field on us.
I didn't see us move to a zone this week, though the DBs did back off from the line 5-10 yards. Maybe a softer man coverage?
I'm with you, though...we need to stick with tight man bump coverage throughout the contest.
Posted on 11/25/19 at 9:35 am to mmmmmbeeer
I’ll be banned and fired if we win. I can already tell
Posted on 11/25/19 at 9:40 am to LewDawg
quote:
I’ll be banned and fired if we win. I can already tell
It is always better to die with a sword in your hand.
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