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Registered on:11/20/2012
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quote:


Phase 1: destroy the IRGC's ability to attack outside of its country. 90ish% complete.

Phase 2: destroy the IRGC's infrastructure so they have no way to effectively manage anything. 90ish% complete. Probably and underestimate.

Phase 3: Kill the IRGC foot soldiers so that they flee and desert in fear of their lives. Currently underway.

Phase 4: Enable groups within Iran to hunt down the IRGC or fight those that refuse to surrender or flee.

Phase 5: Bring in the new Iranian leaders (former over thrown Royal family.

Other than special ops no boots on the ground needed by us.


This is pretty much how I see this playing out.

Reza Pahlavi doens't go from exile prince in the background and an outspoken opponent of forced regime change in Iran to calling for regime change and asking his people to wait for his "Call".

This has all the hallmarks of a US/Israel coordinated attempt at regime change. Reza has to appear independent and organically selected by the Iranians for this to work, that is why Trump hasn't endorsed him as the choice. Reza still has to do his part, which is mobilize the support of the Iranians in Iran to his cause.
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Looking more and more like this regime of butchers will survive.

Iranian population is going to pay a high price in blood.

And in 6 months Israel will be screaming Iran is 30 days from a nuclear weapon.


What gives you this impression? US/Israel are still conducting airstrikes and have repeatedly asked the Iranian people to stay home (Also same message from Reza Pahlavi)

Let's see what happens when the strikes die down and the people are given the chance to rise up.
quote:

Mojtaba Khamenei, the newly appointed Supreme Leader of Iran, suffered a fractured foot, a bruise around his left eye, as well as minor lacerations to his face, after a failed assassination attempt on the first day of the U.S. and Israel’s bombardment campaign against Tehran, a source familiar with the situation told CNN.


That's interesting framing "Failed assassaination attempt". What about the other people successfully killed in the "Attempt" like the Former Ayatollah Khamenei?
Threats from Iran aren't really why the straits are closed. Lloyd's of London is refusing to insure the ships in the Straits. If Lloyd's would insure, the straits would open with security guarantees from the US.
Judd Hirsch saving Iran wasnt on my bingo card
A little late aren't they? I guess the irgc can throw rocks.
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We’re not going to have to.

Our unrelenting aerial assault combined with Israel and the Mossad is more than enough.


Infrastructure isn't people. The strikes have been very effective, but if you want real change in Iran someone is going to have to put boots on the ground. I would hope in a few days we see a ramp down in airstrikes and an "organic" Iranian people's uprising.
US/Israel have destroyed the leadership of the Islamic Republic. What we have now is a decentralized resistance which needs to be stamped out by the Iranian people with continued support from US/Israel Air superiority.

If the guy is Pahlavi, now is his time to strike with an organized ground force. He needs to take the stage and show US/Israel that he is the guy. (which i think they already know).

The next few weeks should be a coordinated effort by Pahlavi (or whoever is taking this role of leader) and US/Israel to finish the job.
This is the situation that requires the Iranian people to rise up and start removing these people.

US/Israel need to finish their campaign of targeting mass gatherings, they have already destroyed the leadership. If Reza Pahlavi has any truth to his claim that the people want him, THIS is the time for him to prove it.

The Iranians MUST be the ones to do this. I hope Pahlavi is prepared with an organized ground force.
There are a lot of public statements made about why he did the rebrand. Personally? I think Trump is testing executive power boundaries.
Burma didn't elect you Mitch. Maybe have some aspirations for the people of your own country.
That's the anger of a mom who knows she fricked her kid up for life.

re: New Leadership For Iran?

Posted by SidewalkDawg on 3/1/26 at 8:24 am to
quote:

I could be wrong,


I think you are right. He has assumed a position of authority among the diaspora, assembled a transition government, and has recently told the Iranian people that the next time his cabinet is together it will be in Iran.

He is clearly being propped up by either the US or Isreal and it makes sense. He would be a fierce ally to both countries.
AI is a weapon. We are in an arms race. This is to be expected.
quote:

Are the leaders even Iranian?

Clearly I’m ignorant as hell to what’s going on over there, but the impression folks put off is this regime one day took over a normal, peaceful people who don’t want to be ruled by evil retarded Muslims.

How’d that happen? The world just lets that type of thing happen?


Ayatollah Khamenei was born in Iran, so was their current President Pezeshkian.

The Islamic revolution that occured in '79 was a complex coordinated effort by many different factions. Khomeini was propped up as a force for change away from the "oppressive" leadership of Pahlavi. In reality the religious conservatives used the revolutionaries (useful idiots of the MEK) to overthrow the Pahlavi government, and once in power, they consolidated their grip and turn Iran into a Theorcracy.
quote:

Impossible to evaluate without knowing the prompts.


Correct. Did they weigh the decisions? Seems to me that "Nuclear War" should be heavily weighted in the decision tree to really simulate the reluctance of humans to engage in such a decision sans total obliteration.
quote:

He chose a law that did not authorize tariffs


I tend to be on the side of there is strategy to this. I think Trump knew they would be struck down. However, by utilizing the IEEPA, he bypassed the red tape and accomplished some real things that have permanence even if his tarrifs are struck down.

For instance, he got USMCA revisions, India pacts, and concessions from 100+ countries that are essentially locked in under these tariff pressures. I'm sure there are other accomplishments that have some permanence that I haven't listed.

re: Marco Rubio = the next POTUS?

Posted by SidewalkDawg on 2/19/26 at 3:43 pm to
quote:

VooDude


You remind me of the Ole Miss poster circa 2015 that invaded this board posting all these wonderfully positive things about Rubio.

Fact is Rubio got 99-0 confirmation vote while every, single, other appointment Trump made was fought for tooth and nail.

The Uniparty loves them some Rubio. I'm sorry, him making nice speeches and pushing Trumps agenda (for now) aren't enough for me.
Few more years and he will stand before God either way.
quote:

Considering their entire GDP is a little over $2T USD, everyone should doubt this


it's a long-term economic projection over 20-30 years that leverages future growth and sanction-lifted market access. Not to mention that Russia sits on a nice Rare Earth market that goes largely untapped without our help.
i'm still skeptical of Rubio. 99-0 confirmation was a major red flag for me. He's saying all the right things, but part of me still fears he may be a Uniparty plant.