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Putting this loss in perspective
Posted on 9/5/17 at 1:44 pm
Posted on 9/5/17 at 1:44 pm
Texas A&M outrushed UCLA by 319 yards, was +3 in TO margin and won TOP 37 minutes to 23 minutes.
Since 2000, teams currently in the FBS who outrushed their opponents by at least a hundred yards win 71% of the time. At 200 yards that goes up to 87% and at 300 yards it's 98%, and the majority of that remaining 2% is spread teams beating the likes or Navy and Georgia Tech and other option teams.
Winning TOP by 10 or more minutes sees teams win 73% of the time.
A TO margin of +3 or more sees teams win 92% of the time.
Now here's the kicker: Since 2000 no team has lost when when outrushing their opponent by 300+ yards, winning TOP by 10+ minutes and winning the TO battle by 3+...until Sunday night. I would venture to guess that since this scenario is only realistically possible in the age of heavy passing offenses, it may be the first time EVER this has happened.
At one point in the third quarter, with UCLA down 44-10, we had a 99.87% chance of winning the game. For reference, when Atlanta went up on NE 28-3 in the SB they never had better than a 99.4% chance of winning.
Since 2000, teams currently in the FBS who outrushed their opponents by at least a hundred yards win 71% of the time. At 200 yards that goes up to 87% and at 300 yards it's 98%, and the majority of that remaining 2% is spread teams beating the likes or Navy and Georgia Tech and other option teams.
Winning TOP by 10 or more minutes sees teams win 73% of the time.
A TO margin of +3 or more sees teams win 92% of the time.
Now here's the kicker: Since 2000 no team has lost when when outrushing their opponent by 300+ yards, winning TOP by 10+ minutes and winning the TO battle by 3+...until Sunday night. I would venture to guess that since this scenario is only realistically possible in the age of heavy passing offenses, it may be the first time EVER this has happened.
At one point in the third quarter, with UCLA down 44-10, we had a 99.87% chance of winning the game. For reference, when Atlanta went up on NE 28-3 in the SB they never had better than a 99.4% chance of winning.
7
Posted on 9/5/17 at 1:57 pm to Roger Klarvin
quote:
Putting this loss in perspective
Here's some more perspective.
The only other time a school came back from this amount or greater was 2006, between Michigan State and Northwestern.
Both teams involved in that game ended the season 4-8.
Posted on 9/5/17 at 1:57 pm to Roger Klarvin
Incredible.
Posted on 9/5/17 at 2:37 pm to Roger Klarvin
To think what $50 bucks on UCLA at 44-10 would have made.
Posted on 9/5/17 at 2:47 pm to Warrior Poet
quote:
To think what $50 bucks on UCLA at 44-10 would have made.
About 25k
Posted on 9/5/17 at 2:51 pm to Roger Klarvin
No, I didn't want you to say it. That's why I said "to think" as opposed to "what would it be Roger" 
Posted on 9/5/17 at 2:55 pm to Warrior Poet
Posted on 9/5/17 at 4:25 pm to Roger Klarvin
Gahtdammit all to hell.
Posted on 9/5/17 at 4:39 pm to Roger Klarvin
quote:
Now here's the kicker: Since 2000 no team has lost when when outrushing their opponent by 300+ yards, winning TOP by 10+ minutes and winning the TO battle by 3+...until Sunday night. I would venture to guess that since this scenario is only realistically possible in the age of heavy passing offenses, it may be the first time EVER this has happened.
We're #1!
I'll be damned if I'll watch a replay, but there were SO many ways to win that game. And our team screwed up every single one of them.
Hell, just let the play clock run down to a few seconds then take a knee 3 times in a row. UCLA would have run out of time. Think about that! Or don't, unless you're already drinkin'.
Posted on 9/5/17 at 8:10 pm to finestfirst79
quote:
We're #1!
I'll be damned if I'll watch a replay, but there were SO many ways to win that game. And our team screwed up every single one of them.
Hell, just let the play clock run down to a few seconds then take a knee 3 times in a row. UCLA would have run out of time. Think about that! Or don't, unless you're already drinkin'.
You're right. There were many opportunities to just end the game. It would have been an ugly win, but a win nonetheless. Even on that last drive, we could have gone 5 wide and had Mond run a few times to get us close to FG range (we had two timeout IIRC). But we didn't.
Just so many terrible calls by the coaches.
Posted on 9/5/17 at 9:40 pm to finestfirst79
I think it's more accurate to say there was only one way we could have possibly lost that game, and it happened.
Poor clock management
Started passing
Mond sucks at 3/17, still wouldn't put in Hubes
Kept passing
Poor clock management
Started passing
Mond sucks at 3/17, still wouldn't put in Hubes
Kept passing
Posted on 9/5/17 at 10:40 pm to AggieDub14
Don't disagree with any of that, but you left one out:
Holy moly.
Holy moly.
Posted on 9/6/17 at 12:11 am to finestfirst79
My cousin was cursing at Caper-Smith the entire time. It seemed like every completion they had was to someone covered by him. Some UCLA folks sitting next to us just kept laughing.
Posted on 9/6/17 at 9:28 am to Roger Klarvin
when we kept snapping the ball with 15+ seconds left on the clock in the third quarter, i was losing my mind. like, why?
Posted on 9/6/17 at 9:56 am to BadAgg7
Olin on TexAgs went back and counted all of the seconds that could have been eliminated by letting the shot clock run down when it was an option after Starkels injury
It was almost 2 minutes
It was almost 2 minutes
Posted on 9/6/17 at 10:14 am to Old Sarge
Posted on 9/6/17 at 12:23 pm to Roger Klarvin
quote:
At one point in the third quarter, with UCLA down 44-10, we had a 99.87% chance of winning the game. For reference, when Atlanta went up on NE 28-3 in the SB they never had better than a 99.4% chance of winning.
Jesus Christ.
Posted on 9/6/17 at 2:57 pm to TbirdSpur2010
quote:
Jesus Christ.
This is the real answer. We screwed up putting this game on the Lord's day of rest. The real Jesus would never allow those heathens in Los Angeles to beat the Texas Aggies, but he could not intervene.
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